Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• President Donald Trump said both Israel and Hamas had agreed to terms for the release of all hostages held by the Palestinian militant group in Gaza.
• Keir Starmer met with a key architect of India’s digital ID program, as the British prime minister sought guidance on implementing a similar system in the UK. 
• Strategists from Japan’s largest brokerages are raising their targets for the Nikkei 225 Stock Average on the view that the newly elected ruling party leader will unleash large-scale stimulus and push the blue-chip benchmark past its record high.
• China’s markets reopen on Thursday after the Golden Week break with investors weighing whether renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence can outweigh signs of soft consumer spending.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Says Hamas & Israel Agreed To 'First Phase' Of Peace Deal .
• US Stock Ownership Is High But Unequally Distributed.
• "We Found A Network Of NGOs, Not Just Soros": Trump Briefed On Left-Wing Machine That Sows Chaos.
• *CHINA TO TIGHTEN EXPORTS OF RARE EARTH AND RELATED TECH.
• Chinese-Mexican Syndicate's Supply Chain Exposed, Vancouver Emerges As Global Meth Hub.
• BOMBSHELL: Smoking Gun May Reveal Left-Wing Eco-Terrorism Behind Palisades Fire. We have uncovered what appears to be a Facebook page belonging to recently charged Palisades arsonist Jonathan Rinderknecht, exposing him as a radical climate alarmist, pro-vegan extremist, and Democrat activist. His timeline is filled with left-wing propaganda, including: - Sep 17, 2020: “Climate Change Will Force a New American Migration” with images of California wildfires. - Sep 4, 2020: Fundraised for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. - Aug 9, 2020: “Rising Seas Could Menace Millions Beyond Shorelines.”. - July 29, 2020: “The Great Climate Migration Has Begun”. It’s also being reported that Rinderknecht donated to Joe Biden through ActBlue on two separate occasions. -@bennyjohnson (pic)   
• He really is the avatar for that entire nepo baby champagne marxist movement. Lives in a $3 million mansion, drives a $100K car, just streams online every day, all day. Says he hates everything about the country that allows him the privilege to do this. Calls not having local satellite speed internet in a state run by Democrats, a microcosm of "Violence" in America. Then commits an ACTUAL act of violence on a dog by remotely shocking it. Then blames his mother, and says the dog has too much freedom and needs a structured routine. And doing so all while streaming "Free Palestine" protests. It's a perfect illustration. It can't be explained any simpler than this. -@redsteeze (video) 
• Struggling Central Valley Residents Line Up For Groceries Amid California's Cost-of-Living Crisis
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• VIRGINIA POLL: Attorney General (Commissioned by Republican AG association). Jason Miyares: 45.8%. Jay Jones: 43.7%. Previous poll from Sep. Jones 46.4-42.5%. —— Net Favs. Miyares: +6.0%. Jones: -16.5%. -@IAPolls2022. It’s unbelievable that this violent radical has not stepped down.
• Gut Changes Persist Years After Stopping Certain Medications.
• A Surprise Dollar Rally Is Already Underway.
• 78% Of Americans Favor Deportation Of Criminal Illegal Immigrants; New Poll Finds.
• This time is different? - The tech rally is profit driven. (graph)    
• Everything's Up Today... Except The Yen; Goldman Sees A Generation Of 'Momo Junkies'. 

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open higher, tracking Wall Street gains as tech rally continues.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• S&P 500 futures are little changed after benchmark rises to all-time high: Live updates.

• @WSJ 

• Breaking: Trump said Israel and Hamas signed off on the first phase of a peace plan to end the war in Gaza, with all hostages to be released soon. 
• President Trump’s and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s family members are positioned to benefit from efforts to overhaul drug sales.
• A host of alternative jobs data from Wall Street are pointing in the same direction: The U.S. labor market is losing steam.  
• The Trump administration said it isn’t planning to impose tariffs on generic drugs from foreign countries, which make up most of medications dispensed in the U.S. 
• Federal Reserve officials were divided over how much farther they should lower interest rates when they approved their first reduction of the year last month.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 39.75 +.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.36 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.7 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.11% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.09%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.08%
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.