Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.39 +.01%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.11% +2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.95% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.12%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.0 -3.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.7 -2.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.9 +1.8 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +12.4% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 294.11 +.31: Growth Rate +12.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 23.0 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.5% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.98 +.42: Growth Rate +17.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.0 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +9.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.49 +5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.5 unch.
- US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.8% +3.9 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 +5.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 84.9% (-5.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.8%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +330 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +42 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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