Friday, October 17, 2025

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Regional Bank Angst, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Financial/Medical Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.2%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.0 +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.92% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -1.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.8 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.0 +4.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.7 +4.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(58 of 500 reporting) +16.0% -.3 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.94 +.38:  Growth Rate +13.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 480.82 +.55: Growth Rate +18.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .21 -24.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.27 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.9 +.2 point
  • US Yield Curve 54.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% +10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.2% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 92.2% (+4.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 52.6%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +670 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +71 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +20 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slight Lower: On losses in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

No comments: