Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.37 -.02%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.16% +4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.95% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour +5.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.8 -1.2 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.1 -.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.3 -.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +12.4% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 294.31 +.20: Growth Rate +12.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.9 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 477.49 +.52: Growth Rate +17.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.8 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 -10.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.4 -.1
- US Yield Curve 56.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.6% -1.2 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 +2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 83.4% (-2.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 56.5%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +830 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +46 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/industrial/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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