Saturday, July 20, 2024

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 5:30 PM

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:Wall Street Journal:   
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (RH), (WSM), (W) and (EADSY).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:   

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @drawandstrike
  • @kylenabecker
  • @amuse
  • @WendyP4545
  • @ChuckCallesto
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @VigilantNews
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @patel_patriot
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @EndWokeness
  • @Stillgray
  • @RWMaloneMD
  • @foundring1
  • @LaNativePatriot
  • @newstart_2024
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
0 comments

Friday, July 19, 2024

Stocks Finish Lower on Crowdstrike Global IT Outages, Democrat Presidential Candidate Chaos, Higher Long-Term Rates, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 9:47 PM
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.33% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.17%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -35.0 +.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.0 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.7 +1.3 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(70 of 500 reporting) +8.9% +1.7 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.60 +.06:  Growth Rate +14.6% +.1, P/E 21.1 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +43.8%
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.18 +.08: Growth Rate +23.8% unch., P/E 34.2 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .91 +9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .79 -2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -27.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 59.6% -.9 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 93.5%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 57.4%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -21 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -110 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
0 comments

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:11 PM

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Semis -2.7% 2) Alt Energy -2.4% 3) Insurance -2.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LPLA, AXP, PPG, FDMT, FP, LBRT, HAL, OCFC, APTV, CENX, EEFT, MEG, TRV, INST, SMR, EH, ALV, CMA, CRWD, AIR, SIGI and LPA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CRWD 2) OIH 3) NRG 4) SBSW 5) LSXMK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CRWD 2) SPWR 3) TRV 4) PLUG 5) ALV
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) XLF 3) XLI 4) OIH 5) XLC
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 12:53 PM

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Medical Equipment +1.4% 2) Regional Banks +.8% 3) Pharma +.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • HE, MSTR, BTDR, ISRG, S, COIN, IREN, WAL, ML, RIOT, HUT, NFE, MARA, NTRA, VIRT, INDB, SUPN, DASH, BX and ERJ
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ISRG 2) ALIT 3) HBAN 4) GFI 5) RF
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SERV 2) ISRG 3) WAL 4) WWW 5) ARM
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) AIRR 2) SOXX 3) XLP 4) IBB 5) RSPT
Charts:
0 comments

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 12:39 PM

Earnings of Note 
 Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BOH)/.87
  • (TFC)/.66
  • (VZ)/1.15
  • (SAP)/1.14
After the Close: 
  • (BRO)/.88
  • (CDNS)/1.23
  • (CALX)/.06
  • (CLF)/-.01
  • (CCK)/1.59
  • (NUE)/2.49
  • (NXPI)/3.20
  • (ZION)/1.09
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June is estimated to fall to -.06 versus .18 in May. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The (WOOF) general meeting and the (SNAP) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
0 comments

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 12:17 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -15.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.5 -2.3
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 40.7% of Issues Advancing, 56.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .73 -28.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$23.7M
  • 38 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
  • 63.2% (-2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 -3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 55.5 +2.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 237.7 -.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,197.9 +.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 5.0 (NEUTRAL) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 12.6 -18.8%
  • Vix 16.3 +2.1%
  • Total Put/Call .77 -15.4%
0 comments

Thursday, July 18, 2024

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:15 PM

 Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.75 +3.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.5 +2.75 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.9 +5.0%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.3 +.04%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
0 comments

Stocks Finish Lower on Higher Long-Term Rates, Democrat Presidential Candidate Uncertainty, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Pharma/Transport Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 4:20 PM
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.09 -.34%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.34% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.75 USD/Metric Tonne-.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.1 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.7 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.3 -.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(60 of 500 reporting) +7.2% -1.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.54 -.14:  Growth Rate +14.5% -.1, P/E 21.2 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.10 -.51: Growth Rate +23.8% -.2 percentage point, P/E 34.2 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 -19.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .81 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -27.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.5% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 93.5%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 54.4%(-6.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -21 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -110 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
0 comments

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:03 PM

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.75 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.75 +2.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.9 +2.3%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.6 -1.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.1%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.21%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
0 comments

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Escalating China Trade Tensions, Trump Taiwan Comments, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:29 PM

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.33% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.9 +5.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.4 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.5 -1.5 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(44 of 500 reporting) +8.5% -3.7 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.68 +.01:  Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.4 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.61 +.13: Growth Rate +24.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.5 -1.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .86 -6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% +71.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.5% -.7 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 93.5%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 59.9%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -857 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +132 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower:  On losses in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
0 comments

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 3:01 PM

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -2.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Semis -5.9% 2) Alt Energy -3.7% 3) Computer Hardware -3.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • MMYT, UPST, NUVL, OMC, AR, ICUI, CORZ, MANH, META, FHN, LPLA, ELV, NTRS, ANF, CCJ, CDNS, JBHT, TSM, APH, SCHW, UCTT, MLTX, IREN, LRCX, LQDA, GEV, CAMT, SMR, CRDO, TLN, LXEO, AMSC, ASML, VKTX, GPCR, FIVE and FDMT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XLB 2) NXE 3) FIVE 4) BSX 5) CARR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FIVE 2) SAVE 3) AVGO 4) AMAT 5) TWOU
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLB 3) XOP 4) COPX 5) XHB
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:50 PM

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Utilities +1.9% 2) Foods +1.7% 3) Insurance +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AEHR, VFC, GTLB, NFE, CLBT, GFS, INDV, HSIC, HE, USB, UNH, GTES, JNJ, NBR, PNFP, CFG, FULT and MXL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AUR 2) XLB 3) FIVE 4) AR 5) AEHR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ANGO 2) ADTX 3) VFC 4) PRPO 5) UNH
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XLF 3) XLV 4) KRE 5) SOXX
Charts:
0 comments

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 12:58 PM

Earnings of Note 
 Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABT)/1.11
  • (ALK)/2.38
  • (BKU)/.65
  • (CTAS)/3.79
  • (DHI)/3.75
  • (DPZ)/3.66
  • (KEY)/.25
  • (MTB)/3.51
  • (MAN)/1.27
  • (MMC)/2.40
  • (SNA)/4.93
After the Close: 
  • (AIR)/.86
  • (ISRG)/1.54
  • (NFLX)/4.74
  • (PPG)/2.48
  • (WAL)/1.71
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 229K versus 222K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1856K versus 1852K prior.
  • Philly Fed Business Outlook for July is estimated to rise to 2.9 versus 1.3 in June. 

10:00 am EST

  • The Leading Index for June is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.5% decline in May.

4:00 pm EST

  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (WMS) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
0 comments

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:53 AM

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +16.7% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 -2.1
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 42.3% of Issues Advancing, 51.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .87 +8.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$236.7M
  • 125 New 52-Week Highs, 1 New Low
  • 68.4% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 74.0 +4.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.4 -1.9%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 239.7 -1.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,126.8 -2.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.4 +8.1%
  • Vix 14.2 +7.7%
  • Total Put/Call .79 -1.3%
0 comments
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