Economic Week in Review

ECRI Weekly Leading Index 131.50 +.08%

New Home Sales for August rose to 1184K versus estimates of 1155K and 1082K in July. The 9.4% gain, propelled by the lowest mortgage rates in four months, is helping sustain strong U.S. economic growth, Bloomberg reported. "We are in the midst of, I would say, the biggest worldwide housing boom ever," said Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University, Bloomberg said. The median selling price for a new home climbed 9.7% from a year earlier to $208,900. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.87% in August from 6.06% in July, Bloomberg reported. The inventory of new homes for sale fell to a 4.2 months supply from 4.4 months in July, Bloomberg said. Finally some 1.16 million homes will be sold this year, another record, up from an all-time high of 1.085 million last year. "Anything over a million is a super strong level," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial. "The housing market is still very hot."

Consumer Confidence for September was 96.8 versus estimates of 99.5 and a reading of 98.7 in August. "It's possible this is an echo from some earlier sluggishness in the economy, and not necessarily indicative of what is going on today", said Robert DiClemente, chief economist at Citigroup Global Markets. Moreover, a gauge of optimism about the economic outlook over the next six months rose to 97.6 this month from 97.3 in August, and consumers said the job market and their own income prospects will improve, Bloomberg reported. As well the percentage of consumers planning to buy a major appliance rose to 29.9%, Bloomberg said. The confidence index has averaged 96.1 so far this year, compared with 79.8 for all of last year.

The final 2Q GDP reading showed 3.3% growth versus earlier estimates of 3.0% and 2.8%. Personal Consumption rose 1.6%, meeting estimates. As well, the GDP Price Deflator rose 3.2%, meeting forecasts. "The soft patch is over, and we expect stronger growth in the third quarter," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight. The economy may expand at a 3.8% rate this quarter and 4.3% for the year, according to a separate Bloomberg News survey. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund said worldwide economic growth will reach 5% this year, the most in 30 years. "This is a very robust economy and it looks like it's going to have legs," said James Owen, CEO of Caterpillar Inc. "We're shipping as much as we can ship and have done a lot of hiring." The core personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation closely watched by Fed policy makers, increase at a very modest 1.7% rate, Bloomberg said. Finally, corporate profits after taxes rose 18.5% in the 12 months that ended in June, Bloomberg reported.

Personal Incomes rose .4% in August versus estimates of .4% rise and a .2% increase in July. Personal Spending remained flat in August versus estimates of a .1% increase and a 1.1% gain in July. The pause in spending followed a larger than previously estimated gain in July. Incomes, helped by larger factory payrolls, rose 5% from the same month last year. This increase is significantly better than the pace of inflation and suggests consumer spending will accelerate, Bloomberg reported. "Spending for the third quarter, which ends today, is going to be fairly strong, and the prospects for the fourth quarter are good," said Gary Bigg, an economist at Banc of America Securities.

Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 369K versus estimates of 343K and 351K the prior week. Continuing Claims were 2873K versus estimates of 2875K and 2876K prior. Hurricanes Charley, Frances and Ivan swept across southern U.S. states over the past six week, causing billions of dollars of damage and disrupting business activity, Bloomberg said. "The increase is mainly caused by hurricane affects," said James O'Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Securities. The U.S. has added 1.4 million jobs this year, Bloomberg reported.

The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for September rose to 61.3 versus estimates of 58.0 and a reading of 57.3 in August. Readings above 50 mean growth, and September is the 17th month of uninterrupted expansion, Bloomberg reported. "Capital spending has strengthened considerably this year as manufacturers rebuild inventories and capacity," said William Hummer, chief economist at Wayne Hummer Investments. The increase in the factory index bolsters expectations the economy is strengthening after a slowdown in the second quarter, Bloomberg said. The Chicago purchasers' employment index rose to 53.9 in September from 51.1 in August as manufacturers hired in the region to meet strong demand. Finally, the group's index of prices paid for raw materials dropped in September, Bloomberg said.

The final reading on the Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence Index for September was 94.2 versus a prior estimate of 96.0 and a reading of 95.8 in August. A major factor for the decline was likely weather as four hurricanes hit Florida and neighboring states, Bloomberg reported. When the university's sentiment index exceeds its long-term average of 88, the political party in office tends to keep the White House, according to a research report issued last month by economists at CSFB.

Construction Spending for August rose .8% versus estimates of a .4% gain and an upwardly revised 1.1% increase in July. Private residential construction, which accounts for more than half the total, rose 1.7% to an all-time record annual rate of $550.6 billion, Bloomberg reported. "Low interest rates will help support economic growth of as much as 4% over the next year, even with crude oil near $50/bbl., said Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The housing market has remained very strong and commercial construction is recovering nicely with the economy as some of the overcapacity from the late-90's bubble has been worked off, Bloomberg reported.

ISM Manufacturing for September was 58.5 versus estimates of 58.4 and a reading of 59.0 in August. ISM Prices Paid was 76.0 versus estimates of 81.0 and a reading of 81.5 in August. The manufacturing group's employment index increased to 58.1 from 55.7 in August, Bloomberg said. "Outside of some elevation in the auto sector, inventories remain below desired levels across most of the economy, so further elevated levels of inventory restocking are likely going forward," said Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley. For the year, business spending on new factories, equipment and software is projected to rise 9.5%, almost three times the 3.3% gain last year and the most since 1998, according to Blue Chip Economic Indicators. "There is now a belief that this recovery is sustainable for some years to come," said Lynn McPheeters, CFO of Caterpillar.

Total Vehicle Sales for September were 17.5M versus estimates of 16.7M and 16.6M in August. Domestic Vehicle Sales for September were 14.3M versus estimates of 13.4M and 13.5M in August. U.S. auto sales rose 10% in September, led by a 25% gain at General Motors and increases for DaimlerChrysler AG and Toyota Motor, Bloomberg reported. Average spending on incentives rose 12% to $4,523 in September, according to estimates from CNW Market Research. New models at companies such as Chrysler also helped lure buyers, Bloomberg said. U.S. sales were led by a 17% rise for trucks, Bloomberg data showed. Moreover, U.S. carmakers' market share topped 60% for the first time this year, climbing to 61.7%, while Asian carmakers such as Toyota and Honda fell to 32%, the second straight monthly decline, Bloomberg said.

Bottom Line: Overall, last week's economic data were positive. The strong number of new homes sold for August was exceptional considering the very bad weather in much of the country. Better employment prospects, higher incomes and lower interest rates will continue to propel home sales, through year-end. Consumer confidence readings likely fell in September as a result of the very negative political rhetoric, multiple hurricanes, increased violence in Iraq and the media's continuing intense focus on all that is negative. Consumer confidence should also improve through year-end. The U.S. economy is currently on pace to achieve 4.3% growth this year, the best performance since the heights of the bubble in 1999. Inflation readings are falling and income growth is accelerating, which bodes well for this holiday shopping season. The affects of the hurricanes are still hurting employment, however recent surveys and rebuilding point to a surge in hiring during the fourth quarter. Manufacturing, after a brief pause, is accelerating and is contributing meaningfully to economic growth. Finally, the fact that consumers are buying trucks and SUVs again in a big way likely means that higher gas prices are being offset by other positive factors, such as low interest rates, better incomes and employment prospects.

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,131.50 +1.93%
Dow 10,192.65 +1.45%
NASDAQ 1,942.20 +3.34%
Russell 2000 585.03 +3.37%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 971.53 +.21%
Put/Call .95 +2.15%
NYSE Arms .46 -56.19%
Volatility(VIX) 12.75 -10.71%
AAII % Bulls 41.07 -19.82%
US Dollar 87.63 -.77%
CRB 285.24 +2.69%

Futures Spot Prices
Gold 421.20 +2.76%
Crude Oil 50.12 +2.49%
Unleaded Gasoline 135.22 +1.67%
Natural Gas 6.79 +11.86%
Base Metals 120.06 +3.50%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.19% +3.97%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.72% +.35%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +8.37%
Iron/Steel +6.28%
Software +5.67%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders +.23%
Retail -.32%
Drugs -.69%

*% Gain or loss for the week

***Alert***

There will not be a mid-day update today due to a scheduling conflict.

Bottom Line: The Portfolio is higher today on strength in my semiconductor, internet, biotech and Chinese ADR longs. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 125% net long.

Friday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
ERES/.16
THO/.53

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for September estimated at 96.0 versus 95.8 in August.
Construction Spending for August estimated up .4% versus a .4% rise in July.
ISM Manufacturing for September estimated at 58.3 versus 59.0 in August.
ISM Prices Paid for September estimated at 80.9 versus 81.5 in August.
Total Vehicle Sales for September estimated at 16.7M versus 16.6M in August.
Domestic Vehicle Sales for September estimated at 13.3M versus 13.5M in August.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on FGP and Outperform on GLK, NFX, DVN, SLB, STZ, MUR. Standard Motor Products(SMP) shares may reach $25 in a year, Business Week reported. Advanced Medical Optics(AVO) shares may reach $46 in a year, Business Week reported.

Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on falling energy prices and optimism over better economic growth in the region. U.S. economic growth and falling oil prices. Taiwan President Shui-bian alluded to the possibility of the island holding a referendum on independence, reviving a contentious issue with China, Bloomberg reported. The decline in global music sales has slowed for the first time in four years, the Independent reported. Wal-Mart plans to set up a fully owned subsidiary in India for buying goods, carrying out quality checks and factory inspections of companies that deliver goods, the Economic Times reported. BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company, said Chinese customers will buy more than half the nickel from its planned $1.4 billion expansion in Australia, increasing sales into the fastest-growing market for the metal, Bloomberg reported. Fewer crude oil traders and analysts expect prices to rise next week after futures reached a record $50.47 in NY on Tuesday, a Bloomberg survey shows. Japanese stocks are gaining after the central bank's Tankan survey showed confidence among executives at the nation's largest manufacturers rose more than expected to the highest level in 13 years and household spending and job reports indicated better growth, Bloomberg reported. North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il's personal physician was caught by Chinese agents after the doctor fled the communist nation to China, South Korea's Munwha Ilbo newspaper reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.20%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.28%

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on better economic data, an end to the first presidential debate, gains in Asia, declining oil prices and short-covering. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,114.58 -.02%
NASDAQ 1,896.84 +.15%

Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +2.52%
Commodity +1.45%
Papers +1.40%

Lagging Sectors
Retail -.31%
Airlines -1.54%
Drugs -2.56%

Other
Crude Oil 49.46 -.36%
Natural Gas 6.64 -2.34%
Gold 420.00 -.10%
Base Metals 121.28 +3.41%
U.S. Dollar 87.38 -.82%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.12 +.80%
VIX 13.34 +.98%
Put/Call .82 -2.38%
NYSE Arms .94 +18.99%

After-hours Movers
NFLX +4.41% after saying it will work with Tivo(TIVO) to develop a service to offer videos to download from the Internet.
OXM +4.4% after beating 1Q estimates and reiterating outlook.
TIVO +5.14% on NFLX news.
RIMM -4.2% on profit-taking after beating 2Q estimates, reiterating 3Q guidance and raising 4Q outlook.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MET and LMT.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today on better economic data and a plunge in the shares of Merck. After the close, News Corp.'s own polling suggests it will win support for a move to the U.S., the Australian Financial Review reported. Japanese auto companies such as Toyota Motor and shipbuilders will agree to let steelmakers boost prices, Nikkei English News said. Merck's recall of its Vioxx painkiller surprised pharmacies in the U.S. and Canada, leaving them unprepared to handle questions from concerned patients and doctors looking for alternatives and trying to get information about possible reimbursement, Bloomberg reported. Scientific studies of Merck's Vioxx arthritis medicine, withdrawn from the market today, showed as early as four years ago that the painkiller was linked to elevated risk of heart disease, Bloomberg said. U.K. Prime Minister Blair is to go to the hospital for routine heart surgery Friday, Bloomberg reported. U.S. military forces have begun a "major offensive" to seize Samarra, Iraq, in an attempt to rid the area of insurgents, CNN reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on strength in my security, Chinese ADR and steel longs. I did not trade in the afternoon and the Portfolio remains 125% net long. Considering the drops in shares of MRK and FNM, today's action was pretty good. The Bloomberg US Iron/Steel Index hit a 5-year high today and is poised to move higher as global economic growth accelerates. As well, long-term interest rates are heading higher on signs of stronger economic growth. I continue to expect U.S. economic growth to reach 4.5-5% during the fourth quarter and that the stock market will begin to anticipate this in the later part of October, embarking on a very strong year-end rally.

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,113.82 -.09%
NASDAQ 1,897.78 +.20%

Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +1.84%
Commodity +1.44%
HMOs +1.21%

Lagging Sectors
Biotech -.37%
Airlines -2.05%
Drugs -2.62%

Other
Crude Oil 50.04 +1.04%
Natural Gas 6.79 -1.75%
Gold 420.40 -.02%
Base Metals 121.28 +3.41%
U.S. Dollar 87.39 -.79%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.14% +1.27%
VIX 13.44 +1.74%
Put/Call .80 -4.76%
NYSE Arms .99 +25.32%

Market Movers
MRK -25.5% after withdrawing its Vioxx painkiller, which generated $2.5 billion is sales last year, because of a link to heart attacks and strokes.
ERES -17.4% after Advest downgrade to Buy, target $21.40.
FNM -4.7% after saying the Justice Dept. is considering whether to conduct a criminal investigation into accounting fraud.
NSTK +12.34% on continued optimism over its nasal spray for obesity.
ACH +6.7% after saying it raised its alumina price by 5% a ton following gains in the import cost of the aluminum metal raw material.
CRAI +8.4% after beating 3Q estimates and boosting 04 guidance.
IMDC +5.1% after announcing that Patricia Walker has accepted the new position of Chief Scientific Officer and Executive VP for Clinical and Regulatory Affairs.
ARRO +5.69% after meeting 4Q estimates and reiterating 05 outlook.
CLSR -33.5% after cutting 3Q/04 outlook.
TLB -9.3% after cutting 3Q forecast and multiple downgrades.
ANN -6.3% on TLB news.

Economic Data
Personal Income for August rose .4% versus estimates of a .4% rise and a .2% increase in July.
Personal Spending for August rose 0.0% versus estimates of a .1% rise and a 1.1% increase in July.
PCE Deflator (YoY) for August rose 2.1% versus estimates of a 2.2% increase and a 2.4% rise in July.
PCE Core (YoY) for August increased 1.4% versus estimates of a 1.5% rise and a 1.4% increase in July.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 369K versus estimates of 343K and 351K the prior week.
Continuing Claims were 2873K versus estimates of 2875K and 2876K prior.
Chicago Purchasing Manager for September rose to 61.3 versus estimates of 58.0 and a reading of 57.3 in August.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on SPLS, PFE, BSX, ATYT and ASN. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on MAR, target $58. Citi rated GNW Buy, target $28. Citi reiterated Buy on GE, target $38. Citi reiterated Buy on AIG, target $80. Citi reiterated Sell on RNR, target $46. Citi reiterated Buy on FHN, target $50. Citi reiterated Buy on WFR, target $14. Citi reiterated Buy on WMT, target $65. Citi reiterated Buy on SPLS, target $35. Citi reiterated Buy on FLEX, target $22. COP raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $91. CG rated Outperform at CSFB, target $28. SIRI raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. LRCX rated Underweight at Morgan Stanley, target $19.40. PFE raised to Outperform at Schwab SoundView, target $41. KLAC rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $45. CYMI rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $35.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed mid-day as better economic data is being offset by concerns in the pharmaceutical sector. Merck said it's withdrawing its Vioxx painkiller from the market because of data showing and increased risk of heart attack and stroke after 18 months of treatment, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart may be planning to sell high-definition televisions in its stores under its own label, the NY Post reported. Kmart Holding is considering moving its corporate headquarters to Atlanta from suburban Detroit, the Detroit, the Detroit News reported. About 15,000 employees of Atlantic City, New Jersey, casinos owned by companies including Harrah's Entertainment, Caesars Entertainment and Aztar may strike tomorrow if union leaders and management don't agree on a new contract, the Star-Ledger reported. DuPont is introducing impact-resistant roofs, safe rooms and products designed to minimize damage to buildings during hurricanes and other natural disasters, the Wall Street Journal reported. Merck CEO Gilmartin told CNBC that the drugmaker's dividend won't be cut after the company's decision to withdraw its Vioxx painkiller because it may be unsafe. One of the organizers of the March 11 Madrid terrorist bombings received a monthly stipend of $2,495 from a Saudi cleric, El Mundo reported. Warburg Pincus may raise more than $8 billion for the world's biggest buyout and venture capital fund next year, Bloomberg reported. Copper prices in NY are rising today to the highest levels in nine years on strong demand from China and the U.S., Bloomberg reported. The frequency and strength of small earthquakes occurring near Washington state's Mount St. Helens accelerated for a second day, raising expectations that the volcano may erupt for the first time in almost 20 years, Bloomberg reported. Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi said attacks by insurgents won't stop elections taking place as planned in January and appealed to the international community to stand by Iraq in its attempts to defeat extremists, Bloomberg said. Business in the Chicago area, a center of manufacturing, grew at a faster pace than expected in September as orders and hiring gained, Bloomberg reported. Daily oil output in the Gulf is still close to 500,000 barrels below pre-storm levels, prompting further gains in the commodity, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Chinese ADR, security and steel longs. I have not traded and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. The tone of the market is ok today, considering the damage to Merck, one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies and a large component in the DJIA. The underlying strength in the Chicago Purchasing Manager report is welcome and bodes well for economic growth in the fourth quarter. It is also a positive that oil inventories rose this last week even with production in the Gulf at lower levels. I expect U.S. stocks to rise into the close on short-covering, end-of-quarter window dressing and better economic data.