Friday, October 01, 2004

Friday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
ERES/.16
THO/.53

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for September estimated at 96.0 versus 95.8 in August.
Construction Spending for August estimated up .4% versus a .4% rise in July.
ISM Manufacturing for September estimated at 58.3 versus 59.0 in August.
ISM Prices Paid for September estimated at 80.9 versus 81.5 in August.
Total Vehicle Sales for September estimated at 16.7M versus 16.6M in August.
Domestic Vehicle Sales for September estimated at 13.3M versus 13.5M in August.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on FGP and Outperform on GLK, NFX, DVN, SLB, STZ, MUR. Standard Motor Products(SMP) shares may reach $25 in a year, Business Week reported. Advanced Medical Optics(AVO) shares may reach $46 in a year, Business Week reported.

Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on falling energy prices and optimism over better economic growth in the region. U.S. economic growth and falling oil prices. Taiwan President Shui-bian alluded to the possibility of the island holding a referendum on independence, reviving a contentious issue with China, Bloomberg reported. The decline in global music sales has slowed for the first time in four years, the Independent reported. Wal-Mart plans to set up a fully owned subsidiary in India for buying goods, carrying out quality checks and factory inspections of companies that deliver goods, the Economic Times reported. BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company, said Chinese customers will buy more than half the nickel from its planned $1.4 billion expansion in Australia, increasing sales into the fastest-growing market for the metal, Bloomberg reported. Fewer crude oil traders and analysts expect prices to rise next week after futures reached a record $50.47 in NY on Tuesday, a Bloomberg survey shows. Japanese stocks are gaining after the central bank's Tankan survey showed confidence among executives at the nation's largest manufacturers rose more than expected to the highest level in 13 years and household spending and job reports indicated better growth, Bloomberg reported. North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il's personal physician was caught by Chinese agents after the doctor fled the communist nation to China, South Korea's Munwha Ilbo newspaper reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.20%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.28%

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on better economic data, an end to the first presidential debate, gains in Asia, declining oil prices and short-covering. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.

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