Monday, October 18, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
MMM/.98
CHKP/.25
CKFR/.26
DPH/-.12
ET/.18
FRX/.76
IBM/1.14
ITT/1.15
LXK/.97
LNCR/.69
MCHP/.29
SWK/.71
TXN/.27

Splits
NUE 2-for-1

Economic Data
NAHB Housing Market Index for October estimated at 68 versus 68 in September.

Weekend Recommendations
Wall Street Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on IMGC, CEG, ZMH and IACI. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on IPR, TROW, TXN and mixed on C. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on NOVL, SIRI, XMSR, MSFT, TWX, SEE and IMA. Barron's had positive comments on NVS, ACN, ISTA, DOVP and negative comments on GIVN, MNKD, INTC. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AMGN, ALL, AIG, RE, ENG, UDR, ASN and MUR. Goldman reiterated Underperform on PPS, PSA, EQR and MMC.

Weekend News
Abercrombie & Fitch agreed to stop using Australian wool after being pressured by an animal rights group, People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. said. Citigroup and American Express blocked their credit cards in the U.K. from being used to pay for online gambling to prevent fraud and reduce indebtedness, the Financial Times reported. Hundreds of British soldiers may be moved to Baghdad within a few weeks to help boost U.S.-led operations in the run-up to Iraq's elections in January, the London-based Times reported. About 70,000 refugees in Sudan's western Darfur region have died from malnutrition and disease, the NY Times reported, citing the World Health Organization. Senator Kerry and President Bush's campaign commercials use the most ominous imagery seen in presidential ads in a generation, the NY Times said, citing analysts and historians. California's Bay Area residents are experiencing the cleanest air quality in 35 years, the San Jose Mercury News reported. Iraq's power grid now has more megawatts than before the U.S.-led invasion, which should boost Iraqis trust in their government, the NY Times reported. South Korea plans to extend the deployment of its troops in Iraq by a year, Yonhap news reported. Airbus SAS CEO Forgeard said he is seeking a U.S. partner to help in a $23 billion bid to supply the U.S. Air Force with aircraft-refueling tanker planes, the Sunday Telegraph said. Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley may be forced to merge with larger commercial firms as the two investment banks' share prices have declined by 20% from their 2004 highs, the NY Times reported. More than 25,000 poll watchers are being mobilized across the U.S. to scrutinize the Nov.2 presidential election for voting irregularities, the LA Times reported. Ford will offer Sirius Satellite Radio as an option in more of its cars and trucks, the NY Times said. Afghan President Karzai maintained his lead over the main opposition candidate Qanooni in early results from the Oct. 9 presidential election, Bloomberg reported. An estimated 75% of the more than 10 million Afghans eligible to vote took part in the country's first direct presidential election, just three years after the Taliban were ousted in the U.S.-led war on terror, Bloomberg said. SBC Communications is offering new and existing customers of its high-speed Internet service free wireless Web access through April to boost demand for its offerings, Bloomberg reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mostly lower, -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.21%

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on short-covering and follow-through on Friday's rally. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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