Thursday, October 07, 2004

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,130.65 -1.0%
NASDAQ 1,948.52 -1.14%


Leading Sectors
Hospitals +16%
Retail +.01%
Banks -.18%

Lagging Sectors
Biotech -2.82%
Homebuilders -3.60%
Airlines -4.16%

Other
Crude Oil 52.42 -.47%
Natural Gas 7.19 -.83%
Gold 419.00 -.12%
Base Metals 123.13 +.19%
U.S. Dollar 88.-.16%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.24% +.51%
VIX 14.50 +9.19%
Put/Call .85 +10.39%
NYSE Arms 1.19 +63.01%

After-hours Movers
DGII +5.3% after boosting 4Q/04 forecast.
BCSI -6.9% after announcing its CFO will resign to pursue other opportunities.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DIS and ATYT. Goldman says RBOCs are optimistic for the first time in years as business has improved and regulatory relief has allowed them to regain control of their own destinies, main beneficiaries are CSCO, JNPR and SONS. Goldman reiterated Attractive view of Lodging sector.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower today on rising energy prices and jitters over tomorrow's labor report. After the close, Johnson & Johnson will change the label on its Remicade drug to include that the treatment for rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's disease has been linked to higher rates of malignancies than the normal population, Dow Jones reported. U.S. consumers cut their borrowing by $2.4 billion in August, the biggest drop in almost 14 years, as they continue to shore up their balance sheets, Bloomberg reported. AT&T said it will cut its workforce by 20% this year and will write down assets by $11.4 billion, Bloomberg reported. Alcoa said third-quarter profit rose 1.1% as costs related to the hurricanes, a plant fire and striking workers in Canada reduced earnings, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on weakness in my semiconductor, software and Chinese ADR longs. I took profits in a number of longs in the afternoon as they hit stop-losses, leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The Portfolio is up substantially for the year and near its highs, thus I wanted to reduce market exposure ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. The tone of the market worsened throughout the day, however volume was relatively light. Most measures of investor anxiety spiked today, but the weekly AAII % Bulls reading soared 38.6% to 56.9% bulls. I expect the monthly employment report to come in a bit weaker-than-expected due to the hurricanes, however upward revisions from prior reports will be around 250,000 more jobs. A better-than-expected report may lead to a reversal of today's negative action in stocks.

No comments: