Monday, October 25, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AFCI/.02
AXP/.69
BLS/.51
CNF/.77
EXBD/.37
EDS/.08
FLEX/.17
HLT/.13
INSP/.25
ISSX/.16
KMB/.90
K/.55
NBR/.46
PBI/.63
PHM/2.00
R/.79
DGX/1.27
ZMH/.53

Splits
CELG 2-for-1
PDCO 2-for-1

Economic Data
Existing Home Sales for September estimated at 6.51M versus 6.54M in August.

Weekend Recommendations
Wall Street Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on GIS, CL, KO, FNM, GDW, BRK, RMK, MAT, FLDR, LNDC, MUR, CVX, MDX, IMDC,SYD and PDCO. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on XOM, PFE, IBM, CMX, NFX, UNP, ADBL, PWN, PXP, VIP and LUKOY. Barron's had positive comments on WYE, DBD, NUHC, FNM, CMLS, COCO, LH, ESI, IACI and negative comments on PSUN, ARO, DKS. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on UDR, ALL, SLB, IP, SPP, DTC, BBY, EBAY, DD, ROH, DOW, BC and ASN. Goldman reiterated Underperform on AVB, CYT, SIAL, CR and ATI.

Weekend News
Japan may extend loans to the Iraqi oil ministry to help fund oil and gas projects, the Middle East Economic Survey said. San Francisco transit police are for the first time patrolling the city's subway system with assault weapons and gas masks to deter potential terrorists as Election Day nears, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. President Bush may tap Ben Bernanke to replace Alan Greenspan as chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve and John Kerry might nominate Alan Blinder if he is elected, Barron's said. Hamid Karzai has won the required majority of votes for outright victory in Afghanistan's presidential election, Agence France-Presse reported. Google is not developing a browser and won't enter any browser wars with Microsoft and Yahoo!, the Financial Times said. NY Democratic Attorney General Spitzer may bring a civil lawsuit against Aon Corp., the world's second largest insurance broker, for antitrust violations, the NY Times reported. Nu Skin Enterprises(NUS) expects its China sales to grow as much as 20-fold in three to five years, making the country its biggest international market, China Daily reported. Wal-Mart said U.S. sales at stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast of 2-4%, boosted by boys' and girls' wear and bedding, Bloomberg said. U.S. intelligence and law enforcement authorities said no direct evidence has been found to indicate plans for an election-related terrorist attack, Bloomberg said. The Fed can raise rates at a measured pace because U.S. economic growth is "solid" and rising energy costs haven't yet sparked concern about a broader acceleration of inflation, Fed Governor Susan Bies said. President Bush called on Congress to pass legislation he proposed to comply with guidelines set out by the federal commission studying the intelligence failures that led to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Bloomberg reported. Northwestern Japan was jolted by aftershocks after a series of earthquakes killed 23 and injured more than 2,100, forcing thousands more to seek shelter in the deadliest temblor since 1995, Bloomberg reported. The creation of a U.S. insurance regulator is gaining support in Congress and among consumer groups after Spitzer disclosed his probe of improper sales practices, Bloomberg said.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are lower, -1.50% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.42%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.48%

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly lower in the morning on weakness in Asia, worries over U.S. politics and high energy prices. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into tomorrow.

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