Economic Week in Review

ECRI Weekly Leading Index 131.50 +.08%

New Home Sales for August rose to 1184K versus estimates of 1155K and 1082K in July. The 9.4% gain, propelled by the lowest mortgage rates in four months, is helping sustain strong U.S. economic growth, Bloomberg reported. "We are in the midst of, I would say, the biggest worldwide housing boom ever," said Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University, Bloomberg said. The median selling price for a new home climbed 9.7% from a year earlier to $208,900. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.87% in August from 6.06% in July, Bloomberg reported. The inventory of new homes for sale fell to a 4.2 months supply from 4.4 months in July, Bloomberg said. Finally some 1.16 million homes will be sold this year, another record, up from an all-time high of 1.085 million last year. "Anything over a million is a super strong level," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial. "The housing market is still very hot."

Consumer Confidence for September was 96.8 versus estimates of 99.5 and a reading of 98.7 in August. "It's possible this is an echo from some earlier sluggishness in the economy, and not necessarily indicative of what is going on today", said Robert DiClemente, chief economist at Citigroup Global Markets. Moreover, a gauge of optimism about the economic outlook over the next six months rose to 97.6 this month from 97.3 in August, and consumers said the job market and their own income prospects will improve, Bloomberg reported. As well the percentage of consumers planning to buy a major appliance rose to 29.9%, Bloomberg said. The confidence index has averaged 96.1 so far this year, compared with 79.8 for all of last year.

The final 2Q GDP reading showed 3.3% growth versus earlier estimates of 3.0% and 2.8%. Personal Consumption rose 1.6%, meeting estimates. As well, the GDP Price Deflator rose 3.2%, meeting forecasts. "The soft patch is over, and we expect stronger growth in the third quarter," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight. The economy may expand at a 3.8% rate this quarter and 4.3% for the year, according to a separate Bloomberg News survey. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund said worldwide economic growth will reach 5% this year, the most in 30 years. "This is a very robust economy and it looks like it's going to have legs," said James Owen, CEO of Caterpillar Inc. "We're shipping as much as we can ship and have done a lot of hiring." The core personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation closely watched by Fed policy makers, increase at a very modest 1.7% rate, Bloomberg said. Finally, corporate profits after taxes rose 18.5% in the 12 months that ended in June, Bloomberg reported.

Personal Incomes rose .4% in August versus estimates of .4% rise and a .2% increase in July. Personal Spending remained flat in August versus estimates of a .1% increase and a 1.1% gain in July. The pause in spending followed a larger than previously estimated gain in July. Incomes, helped by larger factory payrolls, rose 5% from the same month last year. This increase is significantly better than the pace of inflation and suggests consumer spending will accelerate, Bloomberg reported. "Spending for the third quarter, which ends today, is going to be fairly strong, and the prospects for the fourth quarter are good," said Gary Bigg, an economist at Banc of America Securities.

Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 369K versus estimates of 343K and 351K the prior week. Continuing Claims were 2873K versus estimates of 2875K and 2876K prior. Hurricanes Charley, Frances and Ivan swept across southern U.S. states over the past six week, causing billions of dollars of damage and disrupting business activity, Bloomberg said. "The increase is mainly caused by hurricane affects," said James O'Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Securities. The U.S. has added 1.4 million jobs this year, Bloomberg reported.

The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for September rose to 61.3 versus estimates of 58.0 and a reading of 57.3 in August. Readings above 50 mean growth, and September is the 17th month of uninterrupted expansion, Bloomberg reported. "Capital spending has strengthened considerably this year as manufacturers rebuild inventories and capacity," said William Hummer, chief economist at Wayne Hummer Investments. The increase in the factory index bolsters expectations the economy is strengthening after a slowdown in the second quarter, Bloomberg said. The Chicago purchasers' employment index rose to 53.9 in September from 51.1 in August as manufacturers hired in the region to meet strong demand. Finally, the group's index of prices paid for raw materials dropped in September, Bloomberg said.

The final reading on the Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence Index for September was 94.2 versus a prior estimate of 96.0 and a reading of 95.8 in August. A major factor for the decline was likely weather as four hurricanes hit Florida and neighboring states, Bloomberg reported. When the university's sentiment index exceeds its long-term average of 88, the political party in office tends to keep the White House, according to a research report issued last month by economists at CSFB.

Construction Spending for August rose .8% versus estimates of a .4% gain and an upwardly revised 1.1% increase in July. Private residential construction, which accounts for more than half the total, rose 1.7% to an all-time record annual rate of $550.6 billion, Bloomberg reported. "Low interest rates will help support economic growth of as much as 4% over the next year, even with crude oil near $50/bbl., said Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The housing market has remained very strong and commercial construction is recovering nicely with the economy as some of the overcapacity from the late-90's bubble has been worked off, Bloomberg reported.

ISM Manufacturing for September was 58.5 versus estimates of 58.4 and a reading of 59.0 in August. ISM Prices Paid was 76.0 versus estimates of 81.0 and a reading of 81.5 in August. The manufacturing group's employment index increased to 58.1 from 55.7 in August, Bloomberg said. "Outside of some elevation in the auto sector, inventories remain below desired levels across most of the economy, so further elevated levels of inventory restocking are likely going forward," said Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley. For the year, business spending on new factories, equipment and software is projected to rise 9.5%, almost three times the 3.3% gain last year and the most since 1998, according to Blue Chip Economic Indicators. "There is now a belief that this recovery is sustainable for some years to come," said Lynn McPheeters, CFO of Caterpillar.

Total Vehicle Sales for September were 17.5M versus estimates of 16.7M and 16.6M in August. Domestic Vehicle Sales for September were 14.3M versus estimates of 13.4M and 13.5M in August. U.S. auto sales rose 10% in September, led by a 25% gain at General Motors and increases for DaimlerChrysler AG and Toyota Motor, Bloomberg reported. Average spending on incentives rose 12% to $4,523 in September, according to estimates from CNW Market Research. New models at companies such as Chrysler also helped lure buyers, Bloomberg said. U.S. sales were led by a 17% rise for trucks, Bloomberg data showed. Moreover, U.S. carmakers' market share topped 60% for the first time this year, climbing to 61.7%, while Asian carmakers such as Toyota and Honda fell to 32%, the second straight monthly decline, Bloomberg said.

Bottom Line: Overall, last week's economic data were positive. The strong number of new homes sold for August was exceptional considering the very bad weather in much of the country. Better employment prospects, higher incomes and lower interest rates will continue to propel home sales, through year-end. Consumer confidence readings likely fell in September as a result of the very negative political rhetoric, multiple hurricanes, increased violence in Iraq and the media's continuing intense focus on all that is negative. Consumer confidence should also improve through year-end. The U.S. economy is currently on pace to achieve 4.3% growth this year, the best performance since the heights of the bubble in 1999. Inflation readings are falling and income growth is accelerating, which bodes well for this holiday shopping season. The affects of the hurricanes are still hurting employment, however recent surveys and rebuilding point to a surge in hiring during the fourth quarter. Manufacturing, after a brief pause, is accelerating and is contributing meaningfully to economic growth. Finally, the fact that consumers are buying trucks and SUVs again in a big way likely means that higher gas prices are being offset by other positive factors, such as low interest rates, better incomes and employment prospects.