Style Outperformer:
Mid-cap Growth (+1.05%)
Sector Outperformers:
Construction (+2.42%), Telecom (+1.96%) and Oil Service (+1.92%)
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
ABB, ITG, GXDX, SRDX, PBCT, DRYS, EGLE, AAON, AFAM, LUFK, STST, FDRY, ATHN, APEI, SSRI, ISIS, AXYS, DWSN, IART, RAVN, XSD, SUR, PIV, RFG, PTE, AZN, HEP, NRT, PSJ, NC and DCO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) ACAS 2) BP 3) CAM 4) AMAT 5) N/A
Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, November 10, 2008
Bull Radar
Links of Interest
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
Exchange Volume vs. Average
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The cost of protecting Asia-Pacific bonds from default declined, according to traders of credit-default swaps. The Markit iTraxx Japan Index fell 19 basis points to 221 as of 9:32 am in
- President-elect Barack Obama has no plans to cancel part of a
- Barack Obama’s office said the president-elect has made “no commitment” to a planned
-
- Commodity exchange-traded products had their worst-ever month in October, with outflows totaling $2 billion, Barclays Capital said. Energy products posted $750 million in withdrawals and those linked to agriculture and commodity indexes shrank by $500 million to $550 million each, the bank said. Overall assets under management declined 20% from September, Barclays said. “Retail investors are also now going through a phase of risk reduction in their commodity exposure,” Barclays said. “This is evident as even short ETPs across all sectors are seeing substantial outflows, with short energy ETPs seeing big falls at a tie when oil prices have been falling.” The S&P GSCI Index of 24 commodities plunged 28% last month, the worst performance since at least 1970.
Wall Street Journal:
Barron’s:
MarketWatch.com:
NY Times:
- Google(GOOG) at 10: Searching Its Own Soul.
- Google(GOOG) Signs a Deal to e-Publish Out-of-Print Books.
- Former Political Radicals See Rebirth of Activism.
CNNMoney.com:
EE Times:
Reuters:
Financial Times:
Telegraph:
- UK Families and small businesses to receive billions in tax cuts.
Tages-Anzeiger:
- Credit Suisse Group has closed six funds that aimed to make money for investors even if markets fell. The funds were worth 1.1 billion francs at the end of September, compared with a peak value of 7 billion Swiss francs.
Interfax:
- Russian oil exports have dropped 25% below “normal” levels, OAO Transneft CEO Tokarev said.
IMF:
Globe and Mail:
Globo TV:
- European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he can’t rule out a further cut in interest rates in December, citing an interview. While tensions in money markets persist, they are “progressively alleviating,” Trichet said.
The Economic Times:
- Chinese shipyard orders fell 11% in the first nine months of 2008 as demand slowed from the US and Europe, citing the China Assoc. of the National Shipbuilding Industry. It’s the first drop in orders since the first half of 2005 and the trend is expected to continue. The association also warned of a further drop in vessel prices next year because deliveries will be double this year’s figure.
Haaretz:
Etemaad:
- Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani said US President-elect Barack Obama’s comments on
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (WBSN), (STR) and (HLS).
- Made negative comments on (BX) and (RJF).
Citigroup:
- Rated (KMB) Buy, target $65.
Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (AMAT), target $17.
Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +4.0% on avg.
S&P 500 futures +1.62%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +1.38%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (LNY)/.32
- (ENER)/.26
- (AIG)/-.80
- (CKEC)/.02
- (SBUX)/.13
- (ROK)/.97
- (MWY)/.38
- (SATS)/.07
- (TSN)/.18
- (DISH)/.58
- (PPC)/-2.02
- (SIRI)/-.08
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The (HLS) Investor Day, (MVSN) Investor Day, Rodman & Renshaw Investment Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Weekly Outlook
Click here for a weekly market preview by MarketWatch.
Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.
There are a few economic reports of note and several significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. – None of note
Tues. – IDB/TIPP Economic Optimism, weekly retail sales reports
Wed. – Weekly EIA energy inventory report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report
Thur. – Trade Deficit, Initial Jobless Claims, Monthly Budget Deficit
Fri. – Import Price Index, Advance Retail Sales,
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. – Energy Conversion Devices(ENER), American International Group(AIG), Starbucks(SBUX), Tyson Foods(TSN), DISH Network(DISH), Pilgrim’s Pride(PPC), Sirius XM Radio(SIRI)
Tues. – Fossil Inc.(FOSL), Liz Claiborne(LIZ), TJX Cos.(TJX), Intrepid Potash(IPI)
Wed. – NetApp Inc.(NTAP), Macy’s Inc.(M), Applied Materials(AMAT), Las Vegas Sands(LVS)
Thur. – Urban Outfitters(URBN), Kohl’s Corp.(KSS), Nordstrom(JWN), JC Penney(JCP), Wal-Mart Stores(WMT)
Fri. – Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF), Agilent Technologies(A), Nuance Communications(NUAN)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. – (HLS) Investor Day, (MVSN) Investor Day, Rodman & Renshaw Investment Conference
Tue. – (PCL) Analyst Day, (BBX) Reception, (STR) Analyst Meeting, (SPWRA) Analyst Day, (FISV) Investor Conference, (UNM) Analyst Meeting, (VMED) Analyst Meeting, (SNS) Analyst Meeting, Rodman & Renshaw Investment Conference, Robert W. Baird Industrial Conference, DB-Biotech Boston Confab, Merrill Banking/Financial Services Conference, UBS Building Conference, Piper Internet Summit
Wed. – (AVCT) Analyst Day, (ACN) Analyst Conference, (STR) Analyst Meeting, (RFMD) Analyst Meeting, (CMI) Analyst Day, (HAS) Analyst Meeting, (BBX) Investor Luncheon, (NKTR) Analyst Meeting, Merrill Banking/Financial Services Conference, UBS Building Conference, Rodman & Renshaw Investment Conference, Robert W. Baird Industrial Conference, CSFB Healthcare Conference, Merrill Defense Forum
Thur. – (QCOM) Analyst Meeting, (BRY) Investor Day, (IWOV) Analyst Day, (SYMM) Analyst Meeting, (TLAB) Investor Conference, (GPRO) Analyst Day, (ULBI) Analyst Meeting, (AMD) Analyst Day, Bank of America Energy Conference, BMO Capital Interactive Entertainment Conference, Merrill Banking/Financial Services Conference, CSFB Healthcare Conference, Needham Telecom Conference
Fri. – CSFB Healthcare Conference
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Friday, November 07, 2008
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 930.99 -3.90%
DJIA 8,943.81 -4.1%
NASDAQ 1,647.40 -4.27%
Russell 2000 505.79 -5.90%
Wilshire 5000 9,328.29 -4.15%
Russell 1000 Growth 381.70 -4.06%
Russell 1000 Value 500.34 -4.03%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 553.48 -2.16%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 506.05 -5.40%
Morgan Stanley Technology 355.14 -5.68%
Transports 3,666.02 -5.66%
Utilities 375.77 -.70%
MSCI Emerging Markets 24.38 -2.84%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 21,239 -1.42%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -602 -9.45%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 46.0 -19.3%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 191,433 +3.42%
Total Put/Call .96 +3.23%
OEX Put/Call 2.34 +103.48%
ISE Sentiment 116.0 -4.13%
NYSE Arms .50 -46.24%
Volatility(VIX) 56.10 -6.34%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 19.85 -13.81%
Smart Money Flow Index 6,335.18 -5.47%
AAII % Bulls 44.83 +20.71%
AAII % Bears 33.33 -17.85%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.15 -9.45%
Reformulated Gasoline 135.0 -9.21%
Natural Gas 6.78 +1.04%
Heating Oil 198.40 -4.18%
Gold 735.60 +1.54%
Base Metals 132.86 -2.12%
Copper 170.95 -9.05%
Agriculture 282.04 -2.61%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.80% -16 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread .96% +5 basis points
TED Spread 2.0 -59 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 190.24 -5.32%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 652.89 -4.15%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index -96.20 -34.73%
Fed Fund Futures imply 97.0% chance of 50 basis point cut, 3.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/16
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 52.61 +5.74%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 477,00 unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.20% -26 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 379,900 -20.31%
Weekly Retail Sales +.6%
Nationwide Gas $2.31/gallon -.24/gallon
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 13.0% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 110.90 -1.77%
US Dollar Index 85.91 +.32%
Baltic Dry Index 829 -2.59%
CRB Index 256.84 -4.30%
Best Performing Style
Large-cap Value -4.03%
Worst Performing Style
Small-cap Value -6.40%
Leading Sectors
Telecom +1.95%
HMOs +.36%
Insurance -.41%
Utilities -.70%
Biotech -1.34%
Lagging Sectors
Steel -8.67%
Retail -9.16%
Homebuilding -9.28%
Gaming -13.52%
Coal -16.47%