U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as Japan quake concerns, Mideast unrest, emerging market inflation worries and more shorting offset fund inflows, lower energy prices, buyout speculation and mostly positive economic data. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Friday, March 11, 2011
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
- S&P 500 1,304.28 -1.29%
- DJIA 12,044.41 -1.03%
- NASDAQ 2,715.61 -2.48%
- Russell 2000 802.83 -2.69%
- Wilshire 5000 13,615.90 -1.47%
- Russell 1000 Growth 594.89 -1.86%
- Russell 1000 Value 665.18 -.84%
- Morgan Stanley Consumer 751.02 +.08%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,067.45 -.54%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 676.63 -3.56%
- Transports 5,126.98 +1.31%
- Utilities 417.99 +1.32%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 45.85 -2.30%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,052.46 +.47%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 889.70 +.63%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 632.76 -2.24%
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +120,278 -1.25%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +24 -226
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 42.0 -25.0%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +275,582 +1.36%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,572,544 +.19%
- Total Put/Call 1.08 +40.26%
- OEX Put/Call 1.80 -5.76%
- ISE Sentiment 105.0 -32.69%
- NYSE Arms .45 -72.73%
- Volatility(VIX) 20.08 +5.35%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.38 +3.49%
- Smart Money Flow Index 9,985.53 -1.31%
- Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.750 Trillion -.10%
- AAII % Bulls 35.98 -2.20%
- AAII % Bears 32.32 -2.53%
- CRB Index 351.88 -3.03%
- Crude Oil 101.16 -3.57%
- Reformulated Gasoline 298.77 -1.98%
- Natural Gas 3.89 +2.21%
- Heating Oil 302.90 -2.04%
- Gold 1,421.80 -.79%
- Bloomberg Base Metals 252.62 -8.16%
- Copper 420.75 -6.39%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 413.33 USD/Ton -1.20%
- China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,630 Yuan/Ton -1.80%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,661.73 -5.45%
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 130.80 +.77%
- S&P 500 EPS Estimates 1 Year Mean 94.26 +.49%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index +68.30 -29.2 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 21.6% chance of no change, 78.4% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/15
- US Dollar Index 76.73 +.44%
- Yield Curve 276.0 -5 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.40% -9 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.561 Trillion +1.27%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.08 +3.63%
- California Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 211.57 -3.21%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 182.33 +5.29%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 185.99 -2.66%
- Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 129.55 -2.65%
- Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 90.15 +2.52%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46% -4 basis points
- TED Spread 24.0 +4 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 86.75 +3.90%
- Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 120.95 +3.87%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 213.04 -.01%
- CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 192.0 unch.
- M1 Money Supply $1.899 Trillion +1.12%
- Business Loans 620.10 +.06%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 392,300 +.80%
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.0% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.88% +1 basis point
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 514.20 +15.52%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -44.5 -5.2 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +2.0% -60 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.54/gallon +.07/gallon
- U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 23.0% below normal
- Baltic Dry Index 1,562 +16.04%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 +12.50%
- Rail Freight Carloads 214,343 -2.83%
- Large-Cap Value -.84%
- Small-Cap Growth -2.93%
- Airlines +4.51%
- Restaurants +2.64%
- Utilities +1.32%
- Homebuilders +1.09%
- Telecom +1.07%
- Gaming -4.93%
- Alt Energy 6.03%
- Agriculture -6.20%
- Coal -8.14%
- Semis -8.16%
- VRUS, CHSI, BSFT, CRDN, RCRC, AVAV, HGSI, LWSN, SAFM, MYRG, LXU, RNOW, COO, DKS and SSI
- QLIK, NCS, SAM, CLR, BYI, CASY, TICC, VSEA, URBN, VC, BKCC, FN and FNSR
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Energy Prices, Euro Bounce, Short-Covering, Fund Inflows
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
- Volume: Slightly Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
- VIX 20.21 -7.63%
- ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 +70.0%
- Total Put/Call 1.11 +6.73%
- NYSE Arms .45 -79.59%
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.75 +1.17%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 124.92 +1.31%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 182.33 bps +1.25%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 213.61 -.49%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 unch.
- TED Spread 24.0 unch.
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
- Yield Curve 277.0 +4 bps
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $167.40/Metric Tonne -1.93%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index +68.30 -6.6 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47% -1 bp
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -274 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +18 open in Germany
- Higher: On gains in my Tech, Retail, Biotech and Medical longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short, then added some back
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Tsunami Slams Japan After Record Earthquake, Hundreds Dead. Japan was struck by its strongest earthquake on record, an 8.9-magnitude temblor that shook buildings across Tokyo and unleashed a seven-meter-high tsunami that killed hundreds as it engulfed towns on the northern coast. As many as 300 people were killed, a Japanese police official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with department policy. Many are missing after the quake and waves as high as 23 feet swept ashore, according to state broadcaster NHK, which showed footage of flood waters sweeping away buildings and vehicles. Airports were closed and bullet train services suspended, and an emergency evacuation order was issued for a nuclear power plant north of Tokyo. “Major damage occurred in the Tohoku area” north of Tokyo, Prime Minister Naoto Kan said in a nationally televised address after convening an emergency response team. “I call on citizens to act calmly.”
- Saudi Activists Fail to Gather in Capital as Police Are Deployed in Force. Protesters in Saudi Arabia stayed away from a so-called Day of Rage after police were deployed in force to deter political activists. In Riyadh, police manned checkpoints today around the Al- Rajhi mosque. Olaya, a main street in the center of the capital, was quiet and police were positioned on every block.
- Oil Heads for First Weekly Drop in a Month as Japan Quake Shuts Refineries. Crude oil in New York fell, heading for the first weekly drop in a month, after Japan’s strongest earthquake on record shut refineries in the world’s third- largest oil-consuming country. Oil declined as much as 3.6 percent after the 8.9-magnitude temblor unleashed a 7-meter (23-foot) tsunami that killed hundreds. Saudi Arabian police and anti-riot vehicles patrolled central Riyadh today to prevent a “Day of Rage” proclaimed by activists. Brent oil was set for its first weekly loss in seven. “This is in response to the tsunami in Japan and the lack of the Day of Rage in Saudi Arabia,” said Hamza Khan, an analyst with the Schork Group Inc., a consulting company in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “If the Japanese refineries are down, then we’re going to see lower demand for crude oil.” Oil for April delivery tumbled $1.65, or 1.6 percent, to $101.05 a barrel at 12:44 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, futures fell 3.6 percent to $99.01, the biggest decline since Nov. 12. Oil has decreased 3.2 percent this week and has risen 23 percent in the past year.
- U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Rose Most in Four Months in February. U.S. retail sales increased in February by the most in four months as Americans took advantage of more seasonable weather to buy cars, clothes and electronics. Purchases climbed 1 percent after a revised 0.7 percent rise in January that was more than double the previous estimate, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. February sales matched the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. “Consumers are not yet showing any ill effects from rising food and energy prices,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York, who correctly forecast the gain in sales. “The numbers are consistent with consumers spending at a slower pace than the fourth quarter but still a solid pace.”
- U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Falls More Than Estimated to 68.2. Confidence among U.S. consumers fell more than forecast in March as a surge in fuel prices threatened to squeeze household budgets. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment fell to 68.2, the lowest in five months, from 77.5 in February. The gauge was projected to decline to 76.3, according to the median estimate of 68 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The index of expectations plunged to the lowest level since March 2009. The nine-point drop in sentiment this month was the biggest since October 2008, the last time average gasoline prices topped $3.50 a gallon. “Consumers are reacting to the run-up in gas prices, which accelerated in the middle of February,” said Ryan Wang, an economist at HSBC Securities USA Inc. in New York. “It’s taking up a bigger portion of their wallet. If fuel prices rise even further, it could be a threat to consumer spending.” The survey’s gauge of current conditions, which reflects Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, fell to 83.6 from 86.9 the prior month. The index of consumer expectations for six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, dropped to 58.3 from 71.6. The 13-point decline was the most since September 2005, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Consumers in the Michigan confidence survey said they expect an inflation rate of 4.6 percent over the next 12 months, the highest level since August 2008, compared with 3.4 percent in the February report. Over the next five years, the figures tracked by Federal Reserve policy makers, Americans expected a 3.2 percent rate of inflation, compared with 2.9 percent the prior month.
- U.S. Job Openings Fell in January as Firms Were Wary of Hiring. Job openings in the U.S. decreased in January to the lowest level in four months, a sign companies were cautious about hiring as the new year began. The number of positions waiting to be filled dropped by 161,000 to 2.76 million after revisions of previous months’ numbers, the Labor Department said today in a statement posted on its website. The number of people hired fell as did the number of workers fired. The unemployment rate is forecast to average 9.1 percent this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month.
- India's Production Growth Accelerates, Giving Scope for Key Rate Increase. India's industrial output grew more than analysts expected in January, supporting economic growth and giving the central bank scope to increase interest rates and fight inflation. Output at factories, utilities and mines rose 3.7 percent from a year earlier after a revised 2.5 percent gain in December, the government said in a statement in New Delhi today. The median estimate of 24 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 2.9 percent increase.
- Wheat Peaking in Goldman Sachs(GS) Forecast as Inventory Larger Than Estimated. The surge in crop prices that drove food costs to a record last month may be peaking because global inventories are now forecast to be more plentiful than previously expected, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. Corn will be up 1.8 percent a year from now at $6.75 a bushel, while wheat will be 4.3 percent higher at $7.50 a bushel, the bank said in a report. Corn surged 82 percent in the last 12 months and wheat jumped 50 percent as flooding from Canada to Australia and drought in Russia ruined crops. “This stabilization will put a lid on crop prices,” Damien Courvalin, a New York-based analyst at the bank, said in the report. “With the market focus shifting to the likely 2011- 12 supply response, we actually see downside risk to crop prices in the near term, especially for corn and cotton.”
- Portugal's 5-Year Yield Jumps to Euro-Era Record on Bailout Speculation. The yield on Portuguese five-year debt reached a euro-era record amid speculation the nation may be nearing a request for financial aid. Bunds rose for a third day as stocks fell after an earthquake struck northern Japan. Ten-year Portuguese bonds fell for a fifth day. When asked whether his country was preparing to request a bailout, Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira Dos Santos said European leaders must understand the “seriousness” of the region’s debt crisis. He made the remarks at a press conference in Lisbon before a European summit later today. Spanish and Italian bonds jumped, while Irish and Greek securities fell. The minister’s comments “might indicate that financial support for Portugal will be discussed at the weekend,” said Michael Leister, a fixed-income analyst at WestLB AG in Dusseldorf, Germany. “Yields show that the market is concerned, and is waiting for something,” he said. The yield on the Portuguese five-year bond rose 22 basis points to 7.99 percent as of 4:45 p.m. in London, the most since at least 1997 when Bloomberg began collecting the data.
- Gates Chastises European Allies as NATO Cities Afghan Advances. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates told European counterparts that a hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan could spoil progress NATO has made as it prepares to hand security to President Hamid Karzai this year. Gates criticized governments “on this continent” for focusing too much on withdrawal at the expense of gains against the Taliban insurgency at a meeting today of defense ministers of the 28-member North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Brussels. “There is too much talk about leaving and not enough talk about getting the job done right,” Gates told defense ministers, according to remarks posted on the website of the U.S. embassy to NATO. He referred to “too much discussion of exit and not enough discussion about continuing the fight.”
- U.S. Girls Ages 11 to 14 Risk for Sex Trafficking, Panel Says. Between 100,000 and 300,000 girls in the U.S. are subject to sexual trafficking every year, and few cases of child rape are ever prosecuted, said Malika Saada Saar, founder of the Rebecca Project for Human Rights. Girls between ages 11 and 14 are particularly at risk, and more American-born than foreign-born children are being bought and sold for sex in this country, Saar said in a panel discussion at the Women in the World conference in New York City today.
- Apple(AAPL) Poised to Sell 600,000 iPad 2s in Its Debut, Outpacing First Model. Apple Inc. (AAPL) may sell 600,000 of the second version of the iPad when it debuts this weekend, extending the device’s lead in a crowding market. The iPad 2 goes on sale on Apple’s website at 4 a.m. New York time, then appears in U.S. stores at 5 p.m. Brian Marshall, an analyst at Gleacher & Co. who predicted more than a half- million in unit sales, is one of several who expect the iPad 2 to outpace its predecessor. Apple sold 300,000 of that version in 24 hours.
Wall Street Journal:
- Magnitude-8.9 Quake, Tsunami Strike Japan. The strongest earthquake to hit Japan in at least 300 years rocked the country's eastern coast on Friday afternoon, triggering a 10-meter (30-foot) tsunami that engulfed cars and buildings in its path in northern Japan, forcing tens of thousands of people to evacuate their homes and setting off tsunami warnings for 53 countries around the world.
- Live Blog: Japan Earthquake.
- Japan Issues Emergency at Nuclear Plant; 2,000 Evacuated.
- Gadhafi Forces Escalate Attacks. Rebels remained on the defensive and protesters gathered for demonstrations in the capital Friday, as forces loyal to Libyan leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi continued their offensive from air and ground against rebel-held positions in the east. European leaders meeting in Brussels stepped up their calls for Col. Gadhafi to step down, and the European Union published its broadened list of sanctions to include Libya's central bank and its sovereign-wealth fund
- Obama Says Prepared to Tap US Oil Reserves If Needed.
- JPMorgan Slices Growth Forecast; When Will Others Follow? The firm cut its growth projection from a fairly robust 3.5 percent all the way down to 2.5 percent, well below-par for this point in an economic recovery. Moreover, he sliced second-quarter growth down to 3.5 percent from 4 percent.
- After The Quake: Video Shows Tsunami Wiping Out Entire Towns. (video)
- Watch Japanese Network NHK Live Online. Your best bet for watching LIVE English language coverage from Japan is this site, which appears to be showing network NHK LIVE in English.
- Three Reasons Why a Chinese Slowdown in "Imminent".
- Saudi Arabia, UAE Call Gadhafi's Regime "Illegitimate". An organization of Gulf States has withdrawn any sort of support for the Libyan regime, isolating them further.
- FAA Gives Blessing to iPad as Electronic Flight Bag. NetJets subsidiary Executive Jet Management has received Federal Aviation Administration approval to use an Apple iPad App from Jeppesen as an alternative to paper aeronautical maps, in a precedent-setting move that will set the stage for this Class I portable, kneeboard electronic flight bag to be rolled out by other operators.
- Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-nine percent (39%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16 (see trends).
- A majority of Spanish savings banks that don't meet core capital requirements would prefer to obtain aid from a government rescue fund rather than accept offers from private investors. Offers from private investors for stakes in the banks are so low that the institutions have started to consider the fund, known as the Frob, as a preferred shareholder, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
Bear Radar
Style Underperformer:
- Small-Cap Value (+.16%)
- 1) Alt Energy -1.0% 2) Telecom -.90% 3) Restaurants -.77%
- SBUX, WCRX, GMCR, ZUMZ, AMSC, TRH, PTP, KYO, ARO, ATE, FOE, TRH, STRI, KV/A and MED
- 1) MED 2) XLE 3) SOL 4) FXY 5) TIN
- 1) LDK 2) HAL 3) HANS 4) SWHC 5) ESLR
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