Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -1.55%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education -.50% 2) Software -.61% 3) Oil Tankers -1.13% 
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • YHOO, ARMH, WHR, COH and HOG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ALXA 2) STSI 3) BMRN 4) VIXY 5) MNST 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PAYX 2) VFC 3) VLTR 4) VMED 5) BKS
Charts:

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Euro-Area Bailout Fund Faces Challenge at EU’s Highest Court. The euro area’s 500 billion-euro ($652 billion) bailout fund faces another test as the European Union’s highest court weighs claims that the firewall violates EU law and should be banned in its current form. A complaint by Thomas Pringle, an independent member of the Irish parliament, has reached the Luxembourg-based EU Court of Justice, which has the power to topple the European Stability Mechanism, or ESM. A hearing is scheduled for today, with a ruling possible as soon as the end of the year under a fast- track procedure. The EU court case follows a separate decision last month by Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe not to block the ESM. The German ruling handed a victory to Chancellor Angela Merkel, who championed the bailout facility as vital to save the euro area from a fiscal meltdown as it lurches between crises.
  • Moody’s Cuts Ratings on Catalonia, Four Other Spanish Regions. Moody’s Investors Service, a week after deciding against cutting Spain’s credit-rating to below investment grade, lowered Catalonia and four other Spanish regions. Catalonia, which will hold an early election on Nov. 25 focused on whether to seek independence for the region that accounts for a fifth of Spain’s economy, was reduced two steps to Ba3 from Ba1, the ratings firm said in a statement dated yesterday. Extremadura was lowered to Ba1 from Baa3, Andalucia was slashed to Ba2 from Baa3, and Castilla-La Mancha was cut to Ba3 from Ba2 and Murcia dropped to Ba3 from Ba1. Moody’s decision to cut the regions was “driven by the deterioration in their liquidity positions, as evidenced by their very limited cash reserves as of September 2012 and their significant reliance on short-term credit lines to fund operating needs,” the ratings firm said. Moody’s also said that Catalonia, Andalucia and Murcia “face large debt redemptions” this quarter when retail bonds issued in 2011 are due to mature. The ratings of Basque Country, Diputacion Foral de Bizkaia, Madrid, Castilla y Leon, Galicia, Valencia and four government-related entities in Valencia were all left unchanged. 
  • China’s Factories Losing Pricing Power in Earnings Threat. Chinese factories are losing pricing power in the worst wholesale-cost deflation since 2009, signaling corporate earnings may deteriorate further and putting a damper on global inflation pressures. Steelmaker China Oriental Group Co. (581) says falling prices are wiping out profits, while Yunnan Copper Industry Co. (000878) cited the declines for a third-quarter loss. The producer price index (SHCOMP) fell 3.6 percent in September from a year earlier and may stay negative until the second half of 2013 without large stimulus, according to Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. 
  • China’s Stocks Fall Most in Almost Two Weeks on Economic Outlook. China’s stocks fell, dragging the benchmark index down by the most in almost two weeks, on concern the nation’s economic and earnings outlook is worsening before a report on manufacturing scheduled for tomorrow. Gauges of health-care and consumer staple companies, the biggest gainers this year, led declines among industry groups in the CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Index. Shenzhen Hongtao Decoration Co. (002325) tumbled 10 percent after the company cut its earnings forecast. Shanxi Coking Co., the largest publicly traded coke producer in China, slid 1.2 percent after reporting lower third-quarter profit. Foreign buyers attending the Canton trade fair declined 11.4 percent from the spring session, the China Daily reported, while Citigroup Inc. cut its 2012 economic growth estimates for China. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 0.6percent to 2,119.65 at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break, heading for its biggest loss since Oct. 11.
  • China Bans Foreign Ships From Rivers as Local Operators Struggle. China will ban foreign vessels from sailing on domestic waterways including the Yangtze River, the world’s busiest for freight, as local operators struggle to make money amid a global shipping glut. Overseas investors will also be barred from engaging in river shipping, including through the use of Chinese vessels, according to a statement posted on the government’s website yesterday. The ban, which comes into effect Jan. 1, doesn’t apply to vessels registered in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. The new rules are designed to help promote a “healthy” domestic shipping sector and to ensure safety standards, according to the statement. The government also this month announced tax and financial support for local shipping companies after China Cosco Holdings Co. (1919) and China Shipping Container Lines Co., the nation’s largest listed operators, both posted wider first-half losses.
  • Texas Instruments(TXN) Forecasts Earnings Below Estimates. Texas Instruments Inc., the largest maker of analog chips, forecast fourth-quarter profit that fell short of most analysts’ estimates, as chip resellers cut inventory on concern that economic growth will remain weak. Net income will be 23 cents to 31 cents a share on revenue of $2.83 billion to $3.07 billion, the Dallas-based company said today in a statement. The forecast includes a 6-cent restructuring and acquisition charge. Analysts on average had predicted earnings of 37 cents on sales of $3.22 billion in the current period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Texas Instruments has thousands of customers ranging from home-appliance providers to manufacturers of space hardware, making its earnings an indicator of economic demand. Concern that global growth will remain sluggish has led distributors to reduce orders to bring down inventory levels. “The fourth quarter is going to be a tough quarter, like last year,” said Tore Svanberg, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. “Customers are basically delaying and waiting.” Texas Instruments shares fell to $27.71 in extended trading following the announcement
  • Why Obama Doesn’t Deserve Another Term. It’s remarkable to watch a president run for re-election without discussing either his plans for the future or the main elements of his record. The stimulus and the health-care bill are two of Obama’s most consequential policies, and the U.S. could be paying for them for a very long time. They are only footnotes to Obama’s campaign. They ought to be his political epitaph.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Rivals Duel in Final Face-Off. Messrs. Obama and Romney laid out their views of America's role in the world at a critical moment in the deadlocked presidential race, with many voters taking a last look at them before Election Day just two weeks away. 
  • Election 2012: Live Coverage.
  • Northern European Investors Steer Clear of Needy South. Risto Murto, the chief investment officer of Varma Mutual Pension Insurance Co., is pleased that the European Central Bank now says it is ready to fight the euro crisis by buying government bonds of troubled countries like Spain. But not so pleased he will join in. And that means Europe's leaders may have more work to do. Varma is Finland's largest investor. It manages €34 billion ($44 billion) and is responsible for the retirement savings of around 870,000 Finns.
  • Low Rates Pummel Banks. Borrowers Benefit, but Industry Lending Profits Hit Lowest Level in Three Years.
  • Regulators Clash Over Volcker Definitions. A rift has emerged among regulators responsible for crafting the so-called Volcker rule, one of the most complex and contentious regulations of the landmark Dodd-Frank financial overhaul. The dispute, between U.S. banking regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission, casts doubt on whether regulators will finish drafting the rule by the end of the year and raises the unattractive possibility that the agencies will issue conflicting standards. 
  • Banks Opt Out in Swap Row. Singapore's DBS, Sweden's Nordea Won't Register to Trade With U.S. Firms. Two large banks in Asia and Europe said they won't register with U.S. regulators to trade complex derivatives with U.S.-based financial companies, amid controversy over a proposed rule tied to the Dodd-Frank markets overhaul. Non-U.S. banks have been complaining for months about regulations that would force banks to register with U.S. regulators if they trade a set amount of swaps, a type of privately negotiated derivative, with U.S. banks or for U.S. clients.
  • Jack Keane: Al Qaeda Is Making a Comeback. Across the Middle East and South Asia, the group isn't dead or dying but on the rise.
CNBC: 
  • Earnings Cliff Ahead? Profit Outlooks Are 90% Negative. Earnings conference calls are beginning to resemble crisis hotlines as corporate executives slash profit forecasts because of fears of higher taxes, a recession in Europe and slowing economy in China.
  • Yahoo(YHOO) Earnings, Revenue Beat Wall Street's Expectations. 
  • China’s Doldrums Put Pressure on US Exporters. Cummins(CMI), the big Indiana engine maker, lowered its revenue forecast earlier this month and said it would eliminate 1,000 to 1,500 jobs by the end of the year, citing weak demand from China as a major reason. Schnitzer Steel Industries, a Portland, Ore., firm that is one of the nation’s biggest metal recyclers, is cutting 300 jobs, or 7 percent of its work force, as scrap exports to China plunge. And on Monday, Caterpillar(CAT) reported lower sales in China and cut its global outlook for 2012.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters: 
  • Japan justice minister resigns, blow to PM Noda. Japan's justice minister quit on Tuesday due to ill health, and amid calls for his resignation over past ties to an organized crime syndicate, dealing another blow to unpopular Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda. Keishu Tanaka, 74, became justice minister only three weeks ago in a cabinet reshuffle on Oct. 1, and his resignation is the second by a minister since Noda took office September 2011, reflecting Noda's weak grip on the government.
  • Barney Frank cries foul in government's lawsuit against JPMorgan(JPM). Democratic Congressman Barney Frank defended the largest U.S. bank on Monday, saying in a statement that the government was wrong to go after JPMorgan Chase & Co for the alleged misdeeds of Bear Stearns. Frank, who served as chairman of the House Financial Services Committee during the Bear Stearns acquisition, said federal and state officials should reconsider holding financial firms liable for the wrongdoing of institutions they absorbed at the government's urging.
Telegraph:
China Daily:
  • Foreign buyers attending China's biannual Canton trade fair declined by -11.4% from the spring session during the first four days, citing statistics from the event organizers. Transaction values for machinery and electronics goods fell -23.1% with Europe.
21st Century Business Herald:
  • A cap on profits of property sales in China's northern Shaanxi province may spur false accounting by developers, citing an official from a state-owned developer. The policy is "unscientific" and bad for mid-to-high-end projects, a second developer said.
Shanghai Securities News:
  • China's property market sales are expected to rise in October from the same period last year, citing brokerage estimates. Property sales in the second half may be higher than the first half, citing Zhang Dawei, a researcher at Centaline Property Agency Ltd.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 94.0 +1.25 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.23%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (BEAV)/.70
  • (R)/1.17
  • (AKS)/-.37
  • (ARG)/1.06
  • (UTX)/1.19
  • (LXK)/.81
  • (WHR)/1.60
  • (DD)/.46
  • (CIT)/-1.22
  • (COH)/.75
  • (HOG)/.58
  • (WAT)/1.18
  • (RF)/.21
  • (MMM)/1.65
  • (UPS)/1.06
  • (ITW)/1.06
  • (BCR)/1.63
  • (TPX)/.69
  • (BRCM)/.77
  • (NFLX)/.05
  • (GILD)/.94
  • (ALTR)/.46
  • (CHRW)/.73
  • (CYMI)/.07
  • (VMW)/.63
  • (AFL)/1.66
  • (BXP)/1.16
  • (JNPR)/.17
  • (NSC)/1.23
  • (PNRA)/1.19
  • (ILMN)/.39
  • (FB)/.11
  • (AMGN)/1.47
  • (BWLD)/.61
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October is estimated to rise to 5.0 versus 4.0 in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The US Presidential Debate, Eurozone consumer confidence data, Spain T-Bill auction, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, 2Y T-Note auction, weekly retail sales reports and Apple's iPad Mini introduction could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Global Growth Fears, Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, US Fiscal Cliff Worries, Earnings Concerns

 Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 17.41 +2.05%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +29.21%
  • Total Put/Call .94 -16.07%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 -56.33%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.76 bps +1.12%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 163.41 bps +.56%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 106.95 bps +1.35%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 211.99 bps -.50%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 22.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.50 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 150.0 +2 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $117.50/Metric Tonne +1.91%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.60 -2.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.53 +2 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +38 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Tech and Medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Doctor Shortage Spreading in U.S. Presaged in Las Vegas. In the Las Vegas area, with about 2 million people, patients and doctors said it can take six months to see a primary-care doctor for a simple check-up. For more serious matters, the waits are far longer -- more than a year, for example, to get an appointment with a neurologist who specializes in autism. Once a problem limited to rural areas, the doctor shortage is now hitting large population centers such as Las Vegas and Detroit where people are forced to wait weeks or months or travel hundreds of miles for care. Nationwide, there is a shortage of more than 13,000 doctors, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges, a Washington-based nonprofit that represents medical schools. That shortfall is expected to grow 10-fold to 130,000 doctors within 12 years as the U.S. population ages and 30 million more people are added to insurance rolls under the 2010 health-care law, the medical college association said
  • Rajoy Asserts Vindication in Galicia Elections. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party said victory in regional elections yesterday that extended its majority in Galicia vindicated his austerity program. “The steps that we have explained have to be taken to resolve the crisis have had overwhelming support,” Carlos Floriano, the party campaign chief, said in an interview on public broadcaster Radio Nacional de Espana. “There is no precedent in this crisis situation of a government not just defending but increasing its majority.”
  • European Stocks Drop for Second Day; Veolia, Nexans Fall. European stocks fell for a second day as Japanese exports tumbled and investors speculated that victory in regional elections for Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy reduces pressure for him to seek a bailout.
  • Greece Austerity Diet Risks 1930s-Style Depression: Euro Credit. The economy shrank 18.4 percent in the past four years and the International Monetary Fund forecasts it will contract another 4 percent in 2013 as Greece struggles to reduce debt in exchange for its $300 billion rescue programs. That’s the biggest cumulative loss of output of a developed-country economy in at least three decades, coming within spitting distance of the 27 percent drop in the U.S. economy between 1929 and 1933, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis in Washington.
  • Caterpillar(CAT) Sees Sales Growth Slowing Next Year on Economy. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the world’s largest maker of construction and mining equipment, forecast sales growth for 2013 that would be slower than in the previous three years as the global economy decelerates. Sales next year will be from 5 percent below to 5 percent more than 2012 results, the Peoria, Illinois-based company said today in a statement. That compared with an average projection for an increase of 5.1 percent based on 17 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue year-over-year grew 31 percent in 2010, 41 percent in 2011 and was estimated to increase 13 percent this year. “The biggest concern is the declining backlog, which would imply a more challenging year next year, especially for mining, and whether or not North American construction will re- accelerate,” Larry De Maria, a New York-based analyst for William Blair & Co. who has a buy rating on the shares, said today by phone. “Caterpillar’s business is very economically sensitive. Due to the softening of the global economy and increasing uncertainty, order rates have declined.” The order backlog fell 18 percent to $23.1 billion at the end of the third quarter from three months earlier with the most significant decrease in the resource-industries segment, the company said. Production across much of the company has been reduced with temporary shutdowns and layoffs as it works through excess inventory, Caterpillar said in the statement.
  • Volcker Rule May Cut $10 Billion in Bank Profit, S&P Says. The Volcker rule could cut profit at the biggest U.S. banks twice as much as earlier estimates if regulators take a strict stance on limiting proprietary trading, Standard & Poor’s said. “We currently estimate that the Volcker rule could reduce combined pretax earnings for the eight largest U.S. banks by up to $10 billion annually, up from our initial $4 billion estimate two years ago,” S&P said today in a statement announcing a new report on the issue. 
  • Monster Energy Drinks(MNST) Cited in Death Reports, FDA Says. Monster Beverage Corp. energy drinks have been cited in the deaths of five people in the past year, according to incident reports that doctors and companies submit to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The five reports received by the agency said the victims consumed Monster drinks prior to their deaths, Shelly Burgess, an FDA spokeswoman, said today in a telephone interview.
  • Overseas Shipholding(OSG) Plummets on Bankruptcy Talk. Overseas Shipholding Group Inc.’s bonds and stocks plunged after the largest U.S. tanker company said in a regulatory filing it’s considering filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Obama, Romney Gird for Final Debate. Locked in a race that is now a dead heat, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney have one final opportunity Monday night to challenge each other directly and detail their differences in the third presidential debate. This time, the focus will be on foreign policy, with a heavy emphasis on the Middle East. With only 15 days remaining in the campaign, the televised debate may be the candidates' last, best opportunity to alter the dynamic of the race.  
  • Kudrin's Outlook for Euro Zone Is Grim. Just over a year ago, Alexei Kudrin came out of the Group of 20 meetings in Washington warning that the U.S. and Europe weren't doing enough to head off economic slowdown. Now, no longer in government but still highly respected for his fiscal prudence, the former Russian finance minister doesn't have to mince words. His message is even more dire. Keeping Greece in the euro zone? "Already impossible," he says in an interview. Spain and Italy next for the exit? "The probability is very high." And creditors beware—Mr. Kudrin sees both Greece and Spain defaulting on their sovereign debt.  
  • Microsoft's(MSFT) Mobile Strategy Ripples Through Industry. Microsoft Corp. is testing new tactics to refashion its software for the mobile-device era, reaping reactions ranging from excitement to consternation from the computer makers and others it relies on as partners. The company, which plans to release a new version of its flagship Windows software on Friday, is taking a page from Apple Inc. and Google Inc. by incorporating the kind of touch commands and applications that consumers have embraced on smartphones and tablets.
MarketWatch.com: 
  • North Face sales slump in Europe slams VF(VFC). Among investors’ key concerns: sales in Europe, about one-fifth of the company’s total, rose 3%, compared with a 13% rate in the first quarter and a 16% increase in the second quarter. Meanwhile, North Face, the company’s biggest label with close to $2 billion in sales worldwide, reported a mid-single digit sales decline in Europe, its first such drop in several years, despite growth elsewhere in the world
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
 Washington Examiner:


  • Report: Taxpayer loss due to Solyndra may be as high as $849 million. The cost to taxpayers for the failure of solar panel company Solyndra may be much higher than the $535 million dollar federal loan guarantee the company received. After the company went bankrupt in last August, 2011, the Energy Department, which had given the original loan, okayed an unprecedented deal to attract more private investment to Solyndra. One result of this deal is that it has allowed more than $350 million in tax write-offs to pass to those private creditors, one of which is owned by a major donor to President Obama. The House Oversight Committee now warns the total loss on Solyndra now could be as high as $849 million.
HousingWire: 
  • RealtyTrac: 65% of housing markets worse off than in 2008. Sixty-five percent of U.S. housing markets studied by RealtyTrac are worse off than they were four years ago, according to the Irvine, Calif.-based real estate research firm. The results of the survey arrive the same day as the final presidential debate and just weeks before the general election. RealtyTrac measured five key housing metrics in 919 U.S. counties and discovered the majority are still suffering from falling average home prices, unemployment, and higher foreclosure inventories, foreclosure starts and distressed sales. Of those counties studied, 580, or 65%, showed results in three of the five metrics as being worse off when compared to 2008 levels. Only 315, or 35%, of the counties had three of five housing metrics with improved performance over four years time. "The U.S. housing market has shown strong signs of life in recent months, but many local markets continue to struggle with high levels of negative equity as the result of home prices that are well off their peaks. In addition, persistently high unemployment rates are hobbling a robust real estate recovery in most areas," said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.
Reuters: 
  • Healthcare costs top U.S. executives' concerns - Adecco survey. U.S. corporate executives are more worried about providing healthcare benefits to their employees than about issues like wages, taxes or attracting qualified workers, according to a survey by the world's No. 1 staffing company, Adecco SA. In Adecco's poll of senior executives, 55 percent named healthcare benefits as their biggest current business challenge, and about a third say they are holding back hiring because of healthcare reforms introduced by U.S. President Barack Obama. Obama's 2010 healthcare law, upheld this year by the U.S. Supreme Court, is expected to raise insurance costs for employers because it calls for wider coverage of more people, including those with pre-existing medical conditions. "A lot of firms just don't know how the (law) is going to impact them financially," said Senior Vice President Janette Marx. "If it does increase costs, it causes executives to question whether they can hire more." 
  • Copper slides to 1-month low after weak Japan export data.
Christian Science Monitor:
Telegraph:
Chongqing Morning Post:
  • China may expand a property tax trial in November, citing Jia Kang, director of the Ministry of Finance's fiscal science research center. People who own luxury property or multiple omes will be the main subjects of the tax, Jia said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -1.04%
Sector Underperformer:
  • 1) Oil Tankers -3.72% 2) Oil Service -1.60% 3) Homebuilders -1.53%
Stocks Faling on Unusual Volume:
  • MNST, AVA, KEY, STI, BP, JPM, EFII, NXY, VOC, NLSN, ELLI, APD, CEB, HWAY, ALXN, VFC, PATK, BMI, AAP, BNNY, DHR, PNRA, CMG, TOO, NCR, CCC and ABMD
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) UTX 2) NUE 3) TWX 4) JNPR 5) MNST
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MAT 2) AVID 3) TXN 4) D 5) OSG
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.06%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Coal +7.29% 2) Steel -.94% 3) Airlines +.55%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ACOM, VOLC, BTU, PHG, OPEN and AFFY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MTG 2) NXY 3) SVU 4) ANN 5) MDRX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) UPS 2) AGU 3) SNDK 4) CQF 5) ELY
Charts: