Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising long-term rates, profit-taking, technical selling, increasing emerging markets debt angst and more shorting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

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Wall Street Journal:

Marketwatch.com:

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Fox News:

 

 

 

CNBC:

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Zero Hedge:

• Chinese Capital Markets Frozen As Bad Loans Soar To Highest Since Crisis. (graph)
• 5 Things To Ponder.
• Western Banks And China: "Interesting Times" Are Coming.
• Bank Of America Asks "Do Obamacare Costs Exceed The Benefits?".
• The Chart That Really Has The Fed Worried.
• The True State Of The Economy: Record Number Of College Graduates Live In Their Parents' Basement.
• Don’t Be Fooled: North Korea Is Getting Ready To Provoke.
• 20 Signs That The Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire.
• US Organized Labor Humiliated After Volkswagen's Tennessee Workers Vote Against Unionizing.
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ValueWalk:

Business Insider:

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IBD: 

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Wall Street All-Stars:

New York Times:

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LA Times:

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New York Post: 

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Washington Post:

 

 

CNN:

FXStreet:

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Reuters:

 

 

 

USA Today:

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AP:

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Financial Times:

Telegraph:

 

 

 

The Guardian:

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Welt am Sonntag:

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Bild:

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NZZ am Sonntag:

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Der Spiegel: 

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Handelsblatt:

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WirtschaftsWoche:

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FAZ:

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Journal du Dimanche:

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El Pais:

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ABC:

CTV:

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The Economic Times:

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  Slack tax revenues may force government to tighten fist to nail fiscal deficit target
  
  Read more at:
  http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/25958467.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
   

Yonhap News:

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Jiji:

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Asahi:

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Focus Taiwan:

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Daily Telegraph:

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Sydney Morning Herald:

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CNA:

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AsianInvestor:

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Shanghai Securities News: 

Xinhua:

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21st Century Business Herald:

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China Daily:

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China Securities Journal:

 

 

Shanghai Securities News:

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Hexun:

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Sunday's Zaman:

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Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on .

• Bearish commentary on .

Citigroup:

• Downgraded . 

Night Trading

• Asian indices are . to +% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 144.0 .

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 111.0  basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures +.%.

• S&P 500 futures -.%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (WWW)/.20
• (GPC)/.91
• (CPLA)/.77
• (DUK)/.95
• (MDT)/.91
• (KO)/.46
• (OII)/.84
• (PNRA)/1.94
• (TEX)/.49
• (FLS)/1.05
• (CRMT)/.70
• (FLR)/.98
• (CF)/4.41
• (ADI)/.49

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for February is estimated to fall to 9.0 versus 12.51 in January.

9:00 am EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for December are estimated at $30.0B versus -$29.3B in November.

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for February is estimated at 56 versus 56 in January.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (ANDE) 3-for-2
• (OTEX) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes, BoJ decision, German ZEW Index and UK inflation data could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,805.75 +.55%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,805.75 +.55%

• DJIA 16,o86.40 +.48%

• NASDAQ 4,059.88 +2.29%

• Russell 2000 1,142.89 +2.08%

• S&P 500 High Beta 29.40 +.77%

• Wilshire 5000 18,947.90 +.67%

• Russell 1000 Growth 840.95 +1.10%

• Russell 1000 Value 906.51 unch.

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 441.58 -.02%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,432.60 +1.39%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 867.77 +1.16%

• Transports 7,235.69 +.87%

• Utilities 487.13 -1.76%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 106.88 +2.25%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.20 +1.07%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,147.54 +.37%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 949.60 -.02%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 195,776 +1.48%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 615 +466

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 31.03 n/a

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 313,160 n/a

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,620,640 n/a

• Total Put/Call .80 -14.89%

• OEX Put/Call .74 -46.76%

• ISE Sentiment 164.0 +13.89%

• NYSE Arms 1.29 +9.0%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.69 +8.61%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.37 -3.83%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.21 +1.73%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.83 +2.79%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,086.81 +.61%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.678 Trillion +.57%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $3.973 Billion -26.9%

• AAII % Bulls 47.3 +37.5%

• AAII % Bears 28.3 -4.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 274.98 -.05%

• Crude Oil 92.89 -2.12%

• Reformulated Gasoline 267.05 -1.53%

• Natural Gas 3.95 +5.83%

• Heating Oil 303.65 +1.51%

• Gold 1,251.50 +.76%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 185.80 -1.0%

• Copper 323.05 +1.46%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 360.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 136.40 USD/Ton -.07%

• Lumber 364.80 +.77%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,387.01 +.10%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.7% +30 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0642 +4.05%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 119.77 +.14%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.90 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.0 -.7 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 34.0% chance of no change, 66.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/18

• US Dollar Index 80.65 +.02%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.11 +1.41%

• Yield Curve 246.0 unch.

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.74% unch.

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.864 Trillion n/a
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.45 +1.90%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 186.0 -2.47%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 60.0 -4.0%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 107.20 +5.38%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 234.34 +1.89%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 106.0 -2.0%

• Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 629.85 -5.29%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 350.50 -2.5 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16% -4 basis points

• TED Spread 18.25 +1.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 -1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.56 -.11%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 97.65 -4.28%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 293.18 +1.55%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 110.0 +7.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.587 Trillion n/a

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,059.20 +.50%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 331,800 -6,700

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% -10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.29% +7 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 449.60 -.33%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -33.70 +.9 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.50% +10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.28/gallon +.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,719 +14.67%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,066.22 +.08%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 267,759 +.42%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +2.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -.1%

Leading Sectors

• Biotech +4.6%

• Airlines +3.4%

• Computer Hardware +3.2%

• HMOs +2.5%

• Defense +2.2%

Lagging Sectors

• REITs -1.4% 

• Steel -1.6%

• Computer Services -1.6%

• Utilities -1.8%

• Oil Service -2.4%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)

• BONT, UVE, ENTA, KCG, ENT, SPLK, WETF, IIIN, TWC, JOSB, WDAY, CSII, ANIK, DAKT, TIF, POST, FBRC, BERY, LGND, NLSN, WAIR, CBF, BKS and MENT

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)

• DLTR, ROST, ADT, OGE, GME, GEOS, LL, LQDT, NUAN, TFM, BRLI, DLLR, TLYS and BLOX

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Seasonality, Weak Yen, Investor Performance Angst, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.01 +.23%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.36 +.15%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.83 -.23%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.58 -.78%

• ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +35.25%

• Total Put/Call .80 unch.

• NYSE Arms .81 -19.68% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.65 +1.29%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.02 +2.10%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.0 -.79%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 293.39 n/a

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 18.25 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.

• Yield Curve 247.0 +2 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $136.40/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.90 -1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.0 +1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +67 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.02%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) REITs -.90% 2) Homebuilders -.53% 3) Airlines -.30%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• FTNT, THOR, CRM, WTI, JKS, PXD, HI and HITT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HL 2) TJX 3) HCA 4) OXY 5) EBAY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) F 2) PXD 3) MA 4) FTNT 5) TSLA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume