Thursday, December 12, 2013

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.16%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +1.29% 2) Biotech +1.19% 3) Oil Service +.65%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • UNS, SRPT, EJ, XLS, ZLC, LUV and FB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BSX 2) SUNE 3) BEAM 4) WMB 5) CIEN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LULU 2) HOV 3) WMT 4) BX 5) YHOO
Charts:

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Asian Sovereigns Lose for First Year Since 2008 as Growth Stalls. Dollar-denominated bonds sold by Asia’s sovereigns are losing money for the first time since 2008 as growth slows in four of the region’s five largest economies. Debt issued by countries outside Japan lost 7.1 percent since Dec. 31, the worst performance in five years, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes. Quasi-sovereign borrowers, such as Indonesia’s PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara, fell 2.8 percent while corporates gained 1 percent. Emperor International Holdings Ltd., which develops real estate in Hong Kong, Macau and China, hired banks for a possible sale in the U.S. currency, according to a Dec. 10 statement.
  • Shenzhen Finds H7N9 Flu Virus in Markets Near Hong Kong. The risk of sporadic human infection is high after three samples collected from live-poultry markets in the southern city of Shenzhen tested positive for the H7N9 avian influenza virus, the Chinese government said. The Guangdong province health authority examined 70 samples from 13 live poultry markets in Shenzhen, it said in a statement yesterday. Shenzhen is an hour’s train ride from downtown Hong Kong and a popular day-trip destination for shopping and dining.
  • Asian Stocks Drop Second Day Amid Concern Fed Will Taper. Asian stocks fell, with the regional index heading for its lowest close in two months, as investors speculate the U.S. budget deal will give the Federal Reserve confidence to curb stimulus as soon as next week. Doosan Heavy Industries and Construction Co. sank 4.6 percent in Seoul after the maker of factory equipment said it will sell 9.5 million treasury shares. QBE Insurance Group Ltd. lost 5.1 percent in Sydney, extending this week’s slump to 32 percent, as Fitch Ratings cut the outlook on Australia second-largest insurer by market value to negative from stable. Full Speed Inc. surged 16 percent in Tokyo as the Internet-marketing firm returned to profit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1.1 percent to 138.27 as of 12:16 p.m. in Hong Kong, with all 10 industry groups on the gauge falling.
  • Rebar Near 11-Week High as Steel Mills in China Reduce Output. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai traded near the highest in 11 weeks as China’s steel mills are under pressure from the government to reduce output on environmental considerations. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, was little changed at 3,730 yuan ($615) a metric ton at 11:02 a.m. local time, after climbing as much as 0.3 percent to 3,745 yuan, the highest since Sept. 24.
  • Draghi Builds Stress-Test Credibility as ECB Readies Bank Review. The European Central Bank is showing that it can repair the reputation of stress tests. More than 90 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said that stress tests next year, in the final part of an ECB-led review of the euro area’s most prominent banks, will be more credible than previous exercises by the London-based European Banking Authority. Details of the examinations of about 130 lenders from Banco Santander SA to ABN Amro Bank NV are due to be released at the end of January.
  • Fed to Come Under ‘Rigorous’ House Scrutiny, Hensarling Says. Representative Jeb Hensarling, chairman of the U.S. House committee that oversees the Federal Reserve, said he plans to subject the Fed to unprecedented scrutiny while considering legislation over the coming year that may focus on its structure, mandates and powers. “It will be the most rigorous examination and oversight of the Federal Reserve in its history,” Hensarling, a Republican from Texas and Financial Services Committee chairman, said today to reporters, referring to a series of hearings scheduled to start tomorrow. “We will be studying the history, purposes and policies of the Fed.”  
  • Senators Vow to Add to Iran Economic Sanctions in 2014. A number of U.S. senators vowed to continue seeking new sanctions against Iran after meeting with Secretary of State John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, who say such measures endanger an international accord designed to limit that nation’s nuclear program.
  • Airlines Get Relief Under U.S. Budget While Passengers Pay. U.S. airlines won a repeal of $380 million in fees they pay for aviation security each year as part of a congressional budget deal that raised related charges on their passengers. The Aviation Security Infrastructure Fee is to be repealed on Oct. 1, 2014, according to a summary of the deal released by the House Rules Committee today. The Sept. 11 Security Fee paid by passengers on airline tickets will more than double, over the objection of lawmakers who set aviation policy. “The government and the administration shouldn’t treat airline passengers to be like piggy banks,” House Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Bill Shuster, a Pennsylvania Republican, said in a speech in Washington today. “Those of us who fly are paying more than our fair share to reduce the deficit in this country.”  
  • Big U.S. Bank Stocks Unlikely to Beat Market in 2014, KBW Says. Stocks of the largest U.S. banks probably won’t outperform the broader market in 2014 after many climbed more than 30 percent this year, said Christopher Mutascio, an analyst at Stifel Financial Corp.’s KBW unit. The median growth in earnings per share at 11 of the largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., is likely to be 2 percent next year, after a 16 percent jump in 2013, Mutascio wrote in a report today. Adjusted earnings per share may fall at JPMorgan and PNC Financial Services Group Inc., he said. “The large-cap banks no longer appear cheap,” Mutascio wrote. “The three primary tailwinds for large bank earnings growth in recent years are either becoming headwinds or are likely to represent much less of a catalyst going forward.”
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Fischer Poised to Be Picked as Fed's No. 2. Stanley Fischer, widely seen as a dean among the world's top central bankers, is President Barack Obama's choice to become second-in-command at the Federal Reserve, according to people familiar with the matter. A White House nomination isn't far off, said one person familiar with the matter. Another said talks with Mr. Fischer were well advanced, but an announcement could take as long as a couple of weeks. Unforeseen events could derail a nomination, as has happened to other Obama candidates in recent years.
  • Top Western-Backed Rebel In Syria Is Forced to Flee. Islamic Front Takes Over Aid Warehouses From Moderate Rebels. Islamist fighters ran the top Western-backed rebel commander in Syria out of his headquarters, and he fled the country, U.S. officials said Wednesday. The Islamists also took over key warehouses holding U.S. military gear for moderate fighters in northern Syria over the weekend. The takeover and flight of Gen. Salim Idris of the Free Syrian Army shocked the U.S., which along with Britain immediately froze delivery of nonlethal military aid to rebels in northern Syria.
  • Businesses Stung by $15-an-Hour Pay. Small Businesses Discuss the Problems Posed by a Rising Minimum Wage. With 40 employees and less than $5 million in annual revenue, the franchise hotel in SeaTac, Wash., could be the typical American small business. But the Holiday Inn Express will soon have to give most of its staff pay raises that are anything but routine.
  • Juking the ObamaCare Stats. HHS won't disclose the enrollment data that really matter. Most of Washington seems to have bought the White House claim that the 36 federal exchanges are finally working, and glory, glory, hallelujah. But if that's really true, then what explains the ongoing secrecy and evasion? 
  • Norman Podhoretz: Strike Iran Now to Avert Disaster Later. A conventional-weapons attack is preferable to the nuclear war sure to come. Not too many years ago, hardly anyone disagreed with John McCain when he first said that "the only thing worse than bombing Iran is letting Iran get the bomb." Today hardly anyone disagrees with those who say that the only thing worse than letting Iran get the bomb is bombing Iran. And in this reversal hangs a tale.
MarketWatch.com: 
 CNBC: 
  • Hilton Worldwide prices IPO at $20. Hilton Worldwide, the world's largest hotel operator, raised roughly $2.34 billion in its IPO on Wednesday after pricing shares toward the high end of its range.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters: 
Financial Times: 
  • ECB Aims to Require Banks to Hold Capital Against Sovereign Bonds. Central bank will seek to combine its new powers as principal banking regulator with current role as currency issuer to strengthen requirements on sovereign bonds, which have traditionally been classes as risk free, citing an interview with Peter Praet, ECB executive board member. Bank to seek change in regulatory thinking through its health check of euro zone's 130 biggest lenders combined with any new offer of cheap long-term liquidity. If sovereign bonds were treated "according to the risk that they pose to banks' capital," lenders would be less likely to use central-bank liquidity to buy more government debt, Praet said.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.0 -3.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 103.0 -1.25 basis points. 
  • FTSE-100 futures -.64%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (HOV)/.17
  • (CIEN)/.24
  • (ADBE)/.32
  • (ZQK)/.04
  • (RH)/.28
Economic Releases
 8:30 am EST
  • Retail Sales Advance for November are estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in October.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos for November are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in October.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for November are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in October.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 320K versus 298K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2757K versus 2744K prior.
  • The Import Price Index for November is estimated to fall -.7% versus a -.7% decline in October.
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for October are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 30Y $13B T-Bond Auction, SNB rate decision, Bloomberg Dec. US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (UTX) Analyst Meeting, (MYGN) Investor Day, (ABC) Investor Day, (DHR) Analyst Meeting, (AET) Investor Conference and the (DTV) Investor Day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Taper Fears, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.84 +6.69%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.50 -.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.03 +1.69%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.15 +1.84%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 +13.74%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +29.33%
  • NYSE Arms 1.40 +25.36% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.42 +2.44%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.50 +1.69%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 56.0 -8.47%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 282.31 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .5 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
  • Yield Curve 253.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $139.10/Metric Tonne -.22%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.10 +1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.80 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 +3.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -155 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Junk Debt’s Escalating Risk Enticing Money Managers: Euro Credit. Europe’s high-yield bond market will get riskier next year, with some of the world’s biggest money managers predicting the lowest-rated and most-indebted companies will escalate sales to take advantage of cheap borrowing. Investors earned an average 9.5 percent buying a record 71 billion euros ($98 billion) of junk bonds this year, according to data compiled by Bank of America Corp. and Bloomberg. The average yield investors demand to hold speculative-grade debt dropped 69 basis points in the period to 5 percent, approaching a record low, the data show. “Credit quality is weakening,” said Michael Phelps, London-based head of European credit investments at BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world’s biggest money manager with $4.1 trillion in assets, including $31 billion in high-yield. “A lot of supply is coming from first-time issuers and that’s creating attractive opportunities.” Money managers are taking on more risk because corporate default rates are approaching historic lows and the European Central Bank has pledged to suppress interest rates for an “extended period of time.” 
  • Era of Lucrative Debt Team Fades as Credit Suisse Sees Exits. Thirteen years after Credit Suisse Group AG crowned itself Wall Street’s new junk-bond king by buying Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette Inc., the last vestiges of its reign in the most lucrative credit business are being squeezed out by post-crisis banking regulations
  • European Stocks Fall as Investors Consider U.S. Budget. European stocks fell for a second day as investors weighed an accord between U.S. lawmakers to limit automatic spending reductions and avoid another government shutdown, as well as a possible cut in Federal Reserve stimulus. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc lost 2.9 percent as Nathan Bostock said he will quit as chief financial officer. Mediolanum (MED) SpA slipped 6.9 percent as its largest investor sold a stake. European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. surged the most in a year after reiterating plans to increase dividend payments. BAE Systems Plc added 2.6 percent as the U.S. budget deal provided $31.5 billion of relief from forced military spending cuts. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.5 percent to 313.3 at the close of trading.
  • Treasuries Fall for First Time in Four Days Amid Bets on Taper. Treasuries ended a three-day advance amid speculation a U.S. budget agreement will support the economy and make it easier for the Federal Reserve to start reducing bond purchases. U.S. 10-year notes headed for the worst annual performance in four years as the government sold $21 billion of them to lower-than-average demand in its last auction of the securities for 2013. Budget negotiators unveiled an agreement yesterday to ease automatic spending cuts by about $63 billion over two years and cut the deficit by $23 billion, ending a three-year cycle of fiscal standoffs. The Fed meets Dec. 17-18.
  • Yen Strengthens From 6-Month Low as Stock Decline Fuels Demand. “There are a lot of risk-off plays that are causing the yen to appreciate,” Ravi Bharadwaj, a Boston-based senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions, a unit of Western Union Co., said in a phone interview. “The empty Japanese economic calendar today has also added to the effect of the stock market on the yen.” The yen rose 0.3 percent to 102.56 per dollar at 1:35 p.m. New York time.
  • Crude Falls From Six-Week High as U.S. Fuel Supply Rises. WTI for January delivery slipped $1.21, or 1.2 percent, to $97.30 a barrel at 2:07 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $97.82 before the report and rebounded to $98.34 immediately after. The contract settled at $98.51 yesterday, the highest close since Oct. 28. The volume of all futures traded was 15 percent above the 100-day average.
  • One-Hundred-Year Bond Plummet Shows Taper Concern: Mexico Credit. Mexico’s 100-year bonds are on the verge of losing all their gains over the past two years as speculation the Federal Reserve will curb stimulus overshadows the nation’s biggest economic reforms in almost two decades. The $2.7 billion of dollar-denominated debt due in 2110 has tumbled 29.1 cents to 91.24 cents on the dollar this year, after climbing 32.3 cents from 2010 to 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The notes have lost 19.4 percent in 2013, exceeding the 12.7 percent average drop for emerging-market sovereign bonds due in 10 years or more, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
  • Fracking Boom Pushes U.S. Oil Output to 25-Year High. U.S. crude production rose to the highest level in a quarter-century as a shale drilling boom in states such as Texas and North Dakota cut the need for foreign oil and pushed the country closer to energy independence. The U.S. pumped 8.075 million barrels a day in the week ended Dec. 6, a gain of 0.8 percent, or 64,000 barrels a day, the Energy Information Administration said today. It’s the most since October 1988.
  • Tobin's Q Sends Caution Signal on U.S. Stocks: Chart of the Day. Share prices may be running out of room to rise in the U.S. because the market value of companies is greater than the replacement cost of their assets, according to Pavilion Global Markets Ltd. Tobin's Q ended the third quarter at .98, according to data compiled by the Fed and released 2 days ago. The ratio is based on market and asset values for non-financial companies. Readings of more than 1 show stocks are overvalued. The fourth-quarter performance of the S&P 500 points to a ratio of 1.06, Pierre Lapointe, head of global strategy and research at Pavilion, and two colleagues wrote. The ratio has been above 1.0 during only one other period since the 1930s, which was during the 1990's tech stock bubble. 
  • Joy(JOY) Profit Forecast Misses Estimates Amid Mining Slump. Joy Global Inc. (JOY), the world’s largest maker of underground mining equipment, forecast lower-than-expected earnings for fiscal 2014 as customers continue to restrict spending after a decline in commodity prices. Profit excluding one-time items will be $3 to $3.50 a share in the coming year through October, the Milwaukee-based company said today in a statement. The average of 22 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg is for $3.67. Joy fell 4.4 percent to $53.75 at 8:07 a.m. before the start of regular trading in New York. 
  • Gender Pay Gap Is Narrowest on Record for New Workers, Pew Says. American women starting their careers today can expect to be paid almost as much as their male peers, though they fall behind as they have children, according to a Pew Research Center study. Women between the ages of 25 and 34 were paid 93 percent as much as men in 2012, up from 67 percent in 1980 and the narrowest gap on record, according to the research group. “Today’s young women are the first in modern history to start their work lives at near parity with men,” according to the report released today.
Wall Street Journal:
  • J.P. Morgan's(JPM) Dimon Says Bank to Spend Double on Controls Next Year. Bank Will Spend Up to $2 Billion in 2014 as It Operates Under Heightened Regulator Scrutiny. J.P. Morgan Chase JPM -0.97% & Co. Chief Executive and Chairman James Dimon expects to double the amount the largest U.S. bank spends on controls in 2014 as it operates under heightened scrutiny from regulators.
  • U.S. Suspends Some Aid to Syrian Rebels After Islamists Gain Ground. Free Syrian Army Rebels Cede Warehouses to New Islamic Front Coalition. The U.S. and Britain suspended nonlethal aid to moderate rebels in northern Syria after Islamist fighters took over their warehouses, the latest sign that the Western-backed opposition is weakening while religious opponents of the regime gain strength. The new Islamic Front alliance took over the aid warehouses in the town of Atmeh near the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey on Saturday, U.S. officials, Syrians who coordinate aid deliveries and activists in the area said.
MarketWatch:
CNBC: 
  • S&P downgrades US growth forecast. "We've lowered our forecast for U.S. GDP growth in light of the additional sequester spending cuts in 2014 as well as the potential for another political standoff in Washington after the October government shutdown," S&P said on Monday, ahead of the bipartisan budget deal struck in Washington. 
  • The rich do not pay the most taxes, they pay ALL the taxes. Buried inside a Congressional Budget Office report this week was this nugget: when it comes to individual income taxes, the top 40 percent of wage earners in America pay 106 percent of the taxes. The bottom 40 percent...pay negative 9 percent.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider:
efinancialcareers:
boombustblog:
Powerline:
Reuters:
  • S&P Sees India Rating Under Pressure on Hung Parliament. India's sovereign rating may come under pressure if general electionsl ead to a hung parliament or with a govt unable to push through reforms, citing S&P's credit analyst Terry Chan.
  • U.S. mutual funds hit investors with big capital gains. Capital gains pain has arrived for U.S. mutual fund investors. U.S. mutual funds are disclosing some whopper capital gains distributions, anywhere from 6 percent to 60 percent of net asset value, underscoring stock market success and a potential year-end tax headache for investors. The year-end distributions are among the largest seen since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, according to U.S. regulatory filings.
Handelsblatt:
  • ECB's Asmussen Says EU Banking Compromise Doesn't Go Far Enough. ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen says in an interview with Handelsblatt that he hopes to see a breakthrough next week. Asmussen says compromise is too complex.
Great Wisdom:
  • China Local-Govt Debt 18t Yuan as of End-June. Audit results show China government debt was about 30t yuan as of the end of 1H, 12t yuan of which was central govt debt, citing an official from the fiscal system. The country's local government debt rose 68% in 2 1/2 years if compared with 10.7t yuan debt found at the end of 2010, according to the report.
Haaretz:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.71%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals -2.64% 2) Homebuilders -2.35% 3) Biotech -2.15%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • IEP, RSE, ALSN, LH, GMLP, POST, GNE, JOY, ENTA, LUX, HRB, AVP, PDCE, XRS, COST, BRE, DGX, IOC, DDC, PBYI, SNN, ZIV, ICFI, ENZY, ULTA, GILD, TOWR, THC, GDP and PCYC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FIO 2) JOY 3) SHLD 4) JNK 5) KRE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MU 2) HRB 3) EA 4) LH 5) MOS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.50%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +.66% 2) Airlines +.03% 3) Retail -.20%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NRF, SNI, MA, KND and RKUS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AAL 2) SHLD 3) JOY 4) AFSI 5) CVS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BA 2) CAT 3) CSCO 4) PSX 5) LMT
Charts: