Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,797.02 +.81%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,797.02 +.81%

• DJIA 15,794.0 +.61%

• NASDAQ 4,125.85 +.54%

• Russell 2000 1,116.55 -1.27%

• S&P 500 High Beta 29.80 +1.09%

• Wilshire 5000 18,896.0 +.58%

• Russell 1000 Growth 846.15 +.90%

• Russell 1000 Value 898.89 +.60%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 420.66 +.36%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,424.11 +.57%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 900.70 +1.11%

• Transports 7,242.33 -.64%

• Utilities 503.85 -.48%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 109.77 +1.34%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.62 +.15%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,144.42 -.85%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 960.38 +.33%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 198,368 -.40%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -14 -31

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 27.03 +4.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 360,217 +2.58%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,561,179 -1.93%

• Total Put/Call .81 -6.90%

• OEX Put/Call .84 +12.0%

• ISE Sentiment 127.0 +30.61%

• NYSE Arms .73 -51.97%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.29 -16.89%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.78 -11.13%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.87 -7.74%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.36 -8.59%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,480.05 -.69%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.705 Trillion -.04%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $1.879 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 27.9 -13.3%

• AAII % Bears 36.4 +11.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 289.77 +2.28%

• Crude Oil 100.13 +2.60%

• Reformulated Gasoline 274.80 +4.16%

• Natural Gas 4.76 -2.27%

• Heating Oil 305.10 -5.56%

• Gold 1,266.80 +1.90%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 189.68 +1.66%

• Copper 324.45 +1.57%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 399.0 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.90 USD/Ton -1.39%

• Lumber 354.20 -.62%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,371.15 +2.78%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.2% -10 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0907 +14.35%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 120.32 +.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.60 -25.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.80 -1.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 34.0% chance of no change, 66.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/19

• US Dollar Index 80.69 -.69%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.55 +1.40%

• Yield Curve 238.0 +7 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.68% +4 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.066 Trillion +.17%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.78 -2.38%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 156.0 -2.34%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 53.0 -3.63%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 111.04 -4.37%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 260.0 unch.
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 96.22 +1.82%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.95 -.41%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 361.75 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17% +4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 15.25 -6.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.25 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 +3.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 68.25 -4.80%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 93.80 -7.15%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 321.0 -5.27%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 110.0 -.5 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.686 Trillion +.32%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 989.70 -2.40%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 334,000 +1,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.23% -9 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 405.20 +.45%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -33.1 -1.3 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.0% -10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.27/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,092 -1.62%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,164.88 +.58%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 247,109 +.50%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.4%

Leading Sectors

• Restaurants +2.4%

• Steel +2.2%

• Agriculture +2.0%

• Gold & Silver +1.7%

• Airlines +1.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Alt Energy -2.3% 

• Oil Tankers -2.3%

• Coal -2.7%

• 3D Printing -3.7%

• HMOs -3.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)

• FURX, OHRP, GMCR, SZYM, NATL, ATMI, MTRX, AKAM, SNCR, HW, LVLT, CLW, CPSI, DATA, ORLY, ARTC, ENTA, CBM, ENTG, CSC, IPHI, NEU, OMCL and SWI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (35)

• PIKE, NYLD, AMG, MLI, SWM, SFLY, VRSN, HAIN, EPZM, TDW, FLO, RPRX, CHRW, ALR, ITCI, IT, PPO, TW, DRIV, NATI, TYL, DNB, LABL, MAT, CLNE, PCCC, SLCA, HGR, MDSO, GDOT, VNDA, BBG, FUEL, SPR and ITMN

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.24 -11.55%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.42 +.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.36 -1.27%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.93 -4.23%

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +44.57%

• Total Put/Call .82 -6.83%

• NYSE Arms .81 +24.83% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.78 -2.73%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.80 -1.52%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 53.0 -2.41%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 111.04 -.72%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 325.44 -.18%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 361.89 -.77%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.25 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 15.75 -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 237.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $120.90/Metric Tonne -.08%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.60 -1.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.80 +.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +235 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech/retail sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• China Spurs Market Rout Blamed on Fed, Goldman Sachs AM Says. China’s policy shifts are a bigger driver of the selloff in emerging markets than the Federal Reserve’s decision to dial back stimulus, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Volatility will rise toward its long-term average and that means an increase in risk premiums, said Philip Moffitt, head of fixed income in Sydney for Asia and the Pacific at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, which had $991 billion of assets under supervision worldwide as of September. The risks for different emerging economies will become more idiosyncratic and Mexico presents a buying opportunity following the rout, he said.

• Turkey Outlook Cut by S&P Citing ‘Hard Landing’ Risk. Turkey’s credit rating outlook was cut to negative from stable by Standard & Poor’s, which said there’s a growing risk of a “hard economic landing” as reserves decline and policy makers spar over interest rates. The move by S&P, the only one of the three main credit rating companies that doesn’t classify Turkish debt as investment grade, comes after the country’s central bank reversed policy and raised interest rates to halt a currency slump. The government has been calling for borrowing costs to be kept low, and says it has alternative plans to revive the economy and the lira.

• German Industrial Output Unexpectedly Fell in December: Economy. German industrial output unexpectedly fell in December, signaling that Europe’s largest economy remains vulnerable to weakness in the rest of the region. Production (GRIPIMOM), adjusted for seasonal swings, decreased 0.6 percent from November, when it rose a revised 2.4 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists predicted a gain of 0.3 percent, according to the median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. 

• European Stocks Climb as Investors Assess U.S. Employment. European stocks advanced, following their biggest rally in seven weeks, as investors assessed a report that showed the U.S. economy created fewer new jobs last month than forecast. Statoil ASA (STL) added 5.7 percent after saying it will cut spending to increase cash flow. EMS-Chemie Holding AG advanced 3.8 percent after posting better-than-expected profit in 2013 and saying it will pay an extraordinary dividend. SBM Offshore NV, the Dutch supplier of floating oil and gas rigs, tumbled 12 percent for its largest decline since November 2012. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.7 percent to 325.09 at the close of trading, taking its advance this week to 0.8 percent.

• Gold Futures Advance After U.S. Payrolls Rise Less Than Expected. “Gold definitely got a bid to it from the weaker numbers,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “What remains to be seen is if this is a one-off thing or the economy is showing signs of weakness.” Gold futures April delivery added 0.5 percent to $1,263.50 an ounce at 10:54 a.m. on the Comex in New York. This week, the metal has risen 1.9 percent this week, the most since Jan. 3.

• Homeland Chief Says U.S. Responding in ‘Real Time’ to Threats. Recent warnings and restrictions on air travelers heading to Russia are a “real time” response to threats associated with the Winter Olympics, which opened today, Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson said. “DHS monitors world events in real time and takes action, when necessary, to confront and respond to threats,” Johnson said, according to excerpts of a speech he planned to deliver today at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. “In support of Russian authorities, we are keeping a close eye on the Sochi Olympics.”

• Google(GOOG) Passes Exxon to Become Second-Most Valuable U.S. Company.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Hilsenrath Analysis: Fed Likely to Stay Course on Rates and Bond Buying. 

• As the Winter Olympics Open, Putin Showcases a Defiant Russia. Games Highlight Hostility to Russian President's New Political Creed. On Friday night, Russian President Vladimir Putin will entertain world leaders at a reception under soaring, Corinthian-style columns and a giant, sparkling chandelier in the Atrium ballroom of the Stalin-era Rus Sanatorium. It will be one of the most exclusive events of the Winter Olympics here, but Mr. Putin's guest list has some big gaps. Few of the Western world's most prominent leaders will be there, declining entreaties to attend, according to diplomats and government officials.

• Fitch Downgrades Ukraine to Triple-C on Political Uncertainty. Ukraine's Currency Has Weakened To Its Lowest Level in Years in Recent Weeks.

Barron's:

• The Singularity: Hedge Funds Become One with the S&P 500. Hedge funds appear to be facing their own singularity in the form of the S&P 500. They’re slowly but surely becoming one with the large-cap stock index.

MarketWatch:

• Severe unemployment overwhelms meager job gains. Opinion: Failure to extend jobless benefits is most recent harmful policy error.

CNBC: 

• Hijacker Who Tried to Divert Flight to Sochi in Custody.

• Moody's downgrades Puerto Rico GO debt rating two notches to 'junk' status. Turkish security officials searched a passenger plane at an Istanbul airport after a bomb threat was made and a passenger demanded to fly to Sochi, Russia, where the Winter Olympics got underway Friday. The Pegasus Airline flight with 110 passengers from Kharkov, Ukraine, landed safely at Istanbul’s Sabiha Gokcen airport.

• These big hedge funds got crushed in January.

ZeroHedge: 

• Goldman's(GS) Payroll Postmortem: "Confusing", "Disappointing", "Little Negative Weather Impact".

• Scandal: Bank Of England Encouraged Currency Manipulation By Banks.

• Bitcoin Crashes 25% As Mt.Gox Halts Withdrawals. (graph)

• Turkish Lira Dumps After S&P Warns, Cuts Turkish Outlook. (graph)

• Blythe Masters Withdraws From CFTC : Furious Twitter Backlash Blamed.

Business Insider:

• All American Credit Cards Will Disappear In 2015 And Be Replaced With This New Tech.

• Detroit Is Losing Money On Its Bizarre 'People Mover' Train That No One Ever Rides.

• THE SCARIEST JOBS CHART EVER.

Reuters:

• U.S. oil hits 2014 high as widespread cold lifts heating demand. Oil rose by more than $1 to one-month highs on Friday, fueled by a sharp rally in gasoline and heating oil as supplies tightened and refiners started to shut down plants for maintenance. 

• Apple(AAPL) shareholders should reject Icahn's buyback proposal -proxy advisor.

• TREASURIES-Yields fall as jobs data disappoints.

• Brazil power failures may trigger fiscal short circuit. Brazil's fiscal accounts, already under close scrutiny by rating agencies, could suffer a new blow this year as the government picks up the bill for rising energy prices. A blackout in large swathes of the country this week raised serious questions about the capacity of the power system to cope with rising consumption and a drop in supply as low water reservoir levels sap output at hydroelectric plants. 

• Fed is not swayed by any single number, Fisher tells CNBC. The U.S. central bank is unlikely to reverse its decision to wind down its bond-buying program in reaction to the weaker-than-expected January jobs report released on Friday, a top Federal Reserve official suggested. "I will say this about the rest of our committee, is they are not swayed by a single number. They are thoughtful people," Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on CNBC, referring to the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

Telegraph:

• German court warns there are 'important reasons to assume' ECB bond-buying is illegal. Germany's constitutional court "inclined" to rule ECB's eurozone crisis backstop is illegal. 

• Webchat: Are we entering the third phase of the Great Financial Crisis? Ambrose Evans-Pritchard answers your questions about the global economy amid tightening in the US and China, ECB inaction and emerging markets turmoil.

Les Echos:

• French 2014 Industrial Investment Seen 10% Below 2007. Investment by French industrial companies is being held back by low margins, citing several research institutes.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.23%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) HMOs -3.47% 2) Coal -2.01% 3) Hospitals -.62%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ATHL, G, MONT, THR, BTE, ECHO, MDSO, ABCO, LNKD, CI, WYN, ACET, BRS, FTI, NCR, MTRX, EGOV, EXXI, FLDM, BYI, MWIV, VRSN, TPX, DATA, DO, CALD, FLIR and NCR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) OUTR 2) CHRW 3) LNKD 4) SCHW 5) CZR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BBBY 2) G 3) DO 4) IRPT 5) MMS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.77%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +3.34% 2) Gold & Silver +2.19% 3) Airlines +1.18%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OUTR, AAN, GWPH, ATVI, EXPE, ARWR, UBNT, ATHN, MCO, NWSA, GPS, TRIP, ATHN, LQDT, LCI, ARWR, MYGN, GTAT, PBH and TWTR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ATVI 2) OUTR 3) CXO 4) LGF 5) NCR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FB 2) PTEN 3) AAN 4) AAPL 5) GOOG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume