Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,877.86 -.03%*

 The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,877.86 -.03%

• DJIA 16,491.30 -.56%

• NASDAQ 4,090.58 +.46%

• Russell 2000 1,102.91 -.39%

• S&P 500 High Beta 30.72 -.49%

• Wilshire 5000 19,610.30 -.05%

• Russell 1000 Growth 870.26 +.23%

• Russell 1000 Value 950.83 -.29%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 454.22 -.57%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,517.10 -.02%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 904.34 +1.14%

• Transports 7,719.30 +.27%

• Utilities 537.78 -.33%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.20 -.70%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.71 +2.45%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,154.38 -.24%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 963.37 -.64%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 218,170 +.23%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -145 -250

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 34.48 -24.96%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 387,739 +1.21%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,627,403 -.67%

• Total Put/Call .92 -2.13%

• OEX Put/Call .60 -65.32%

• ISE Sentiment 98.0 +2.08%

• NYSE Arms 1.22 -14.08%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.44 -3.71%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.62 -1.61%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.27 +2.96%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.20 -1.64%

• Smart Money Flow Index 10,971.31 -.47%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.588 Trillion -.12%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.963 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 33.1 +16.9%

• AAII % Bears 22.6 -21.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 305.92 +.45%

• Crude Oil 101.02 +1.99%

• Reformulated Gasoline 297.35 +2.60%

• Natural Gas 4.41 -2.65%

• Heating Oil 295.36 +1.53%

• Gold 1,293.40 +.27%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 193.70 +1.14%

• Copper 314.70 +1.94%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 371.80 USD/Ton -.85%

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.70 USD/Ton -1.95%

• Lumber 324.20 -5.48%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,527.43 -1.13%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.9% +40 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0748 +20.6%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.49 +.28%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.30 +6.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.20 +.2 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/18

• US Dollar Index 80.04 +.22%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.0 -.86%

• Yield Curve 216.0 -8 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.52% -10 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.294 Trillion +.79%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.27 +3.13%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 156.0 +9.10%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 35.64 +9.95%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 84.65 +.12%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 231.57 +.34%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 83.50 -5.65%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 232.10 -12.69%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 359.70 -.02%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18% unch.

• TED Spread 21.25 +1.0 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.75 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 -2.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.91 +1.03%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 78.03 +4.53%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 269.32 unch.
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 89.0 +5.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.808 Trillion +1.14%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,038.20 -.40%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 323,250 -1,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.0% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.20% -1 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 363,400 +3.56%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 34.9 -2.2 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.20% +60 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.65/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1021.0 +2.41%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,086.19 unch.

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 267,283 -.03%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.9%

Leading Sectors

• Road & Rail +2.5%

• Computer Hardware +2.2%

• Steel +2.2%

• Internet +1.6%

• Telecom +1.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Construction -1.7% 

• Alt Energy -2.0%

• I-Banking -2.2%

• Oil Service -2.9%

• 3D Printing -4.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (13)

• GTIV, PPO, OSIR, RAX, PF, MYRG, IRM, BBOX, BLT, EVDY, ORA, TUES and CSC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (25)

• CECE, URS, SIR, TUMI, DRQ, FOSL, PGEM, TTI, TRAK, POST, TTWO, CBPX, AIRM, EXAM, ACAT, PRO, UBNT, UVE, ACXM, FF, JGW, FUEL, RDEN, DXPE and INSY

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Retail/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.43 -5.62%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.07 -.20%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.20 -2.17%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.0 -4.29%

• ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -1.08%

• Total Put/Call .93 -7.92%

• NYSE Arms 1.04 -40.63% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.72 -.49%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.03 -1.57%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.64 -.28%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 85.25 +.95%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 269.99 -.25%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 359.70 +.65%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.75 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 21.25 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 216.0 +2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $100.70/Metric Tonne -2.04%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.30 +5.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.20 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +59 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/medical/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Crisis Echoes 1914, German Ex-Leader Schmidt Says. The Ukraine crisis reverberating across Europe recalls 1914 before the outbreak of World War I as Russia, the U.S. and European governments risk sleepwalking into conflict, said former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt. “I don’t want to encourage a third world war and especially not calls for more money for arms for NATO,” Schmidt, 95, was cited as saying in an interview with Germany’s best-selling Bild newspaper today. “But the danger that the situation intensifies as in 1914 is growing day by day.” 

• China Orders Interbank Lending Curbs to Quell Shadow Debt. The Chinese government ordered lenders to curb interbank borrowing in the latest effort to check growth in the informal shadow-banking industry that threatens to undermine the nation’s financial system. A commercial bank should limit its interbank borrowing to less than a third of its liabilities, while its lending to another financial firm shouldn’t exceed 50 percent of its Tier 1 capital, according to a statement on the People’s Bank of China’s website yesterday. Financial institutions need to better manage the maturity of interbank funding and control liquidity risks, the PBOC said. “Given that interbank financing has been important in funding the business of some lenders, the rules will limit overall lending in the economy, not just in the market,” Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Credit Agricole, wrote in an e-mail. “While much needed to control the risk in the banking system, they are a medium-term negative for the growth outlook.”

• China’s Small-Cap Stocks Enter Bear Market on Slowdown. China’s small-company stocks fell, dragging the benchmark index down more than 20 percent from its February peak, on concern valuations are too high as the economy slows and new share offerings divert funds. The ChiNext index dropped 2.2 percent to 1,226.47 at the close in Shenzhen, entering a bear market after tumbling 21 percent from a record high of 1,558.62 on Feb. 17. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) slid 5.5 percent during the period. Bocom International Holdings Co. and UBS AG predict further losses for the ChiNext as a housing slump adds risks to an economy that analysts predict will grow at the slowest pace in 24 years. 

• Hong Kong Growth Cools to Slowest Pace Since 2012 on Exports. Hong Kong’s economy grew in the first quarter at the slowest pace since a contraction in 2012 because of weakness in exports. Gross domestic product expanded 0.2 percent from the previous three months, the government said in a statement on its website today. That was less than the 0.4 percent estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 11 economists.

• Most European Stocks Decline as Travel Companies Retreat. Most European stocks dropped, following the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s largest decline in a month yesterday, as travel-and-leisure companies slid after TUI AG reported a wider loss and auto-related shares slipped. TUI AG fell 2.5 percent after the tour operator’s loss before interest, taxes and amortization widened. Renault SA and Daimler AG each retreated more than 1 percent as a report showed European car sales slowed. Banco Espirito Santo SA decreased 5.5 percent as it announced a capital increase. Bouygues SA (EN) climbed 4.4 percent after a report that Orange SA has studied buying Bouygues Telecom. The Stoxx 600 added 0.1 percent to 338.99 at the close of trading as more than three stocks retreated for every two that advanced. 

• Iron Ore Futures in Singapore Decline to Lowest Since ’13. Iron ore futures in Singapore fell to the lowest level since the contract started last year on concern that slowing demand growth in China, the biggest user, could worsen the global seaborne glut.

• Euro Drops as Peripheral Bonds’ Fall Boosts Economic Concern. The euro fell against most of its major peers as investors sold peripheral government bonds amid speculation the region’s economy remains sluggish. “The story is a bearish one for the euro,” Vassili Serebriakov, a New York-based foreign-exchange strategist at BNP Paribas SA, said by phone. “There’s scope to build up euro shorts. We see the market starting to position that way starting last week.”

• Bullard Says Fed Closer to Goals Than Any Time in Five Years. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the Fed is closer to its goals for employment and inflation than at any time in five years, helping to warrant its tapering of record stimulus. “Fed goals are within sight,” Bullard, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year, said today in Little Rock, Arkansas. “This helps to justify the FOMC’s tapering of asset purchases,” he said, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee. 

• Blankfein Sees Concern in Guilty Plea by Any Global Bank. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein said he understands the concern over the potential impact to the financial markets of any global bank pleading guilty to a crime. “There’s concern being shown, and I don’t magnify it, but I don’t minimize it either,” Blankfein said today in an interview after the New York-based firm’s annual shareholder meeting in Irving, Texas. “You hope it’s not existential, and you hope there’s not a knock-on effect to that.”

Wall Street Journal:

• Scientific Authoritarians. The case for skepticism about climate scientists.

CNBC: 

• Political TV ads on health law total $445M.

ZeroHedge:

• Moscow Says Massive "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China Is 98% Ready.

• Ukraine's Richest Man Mobilizes Private 'Army' After Assets Threatened.

• Sell Italian Bonds But US Treasury Bulls Beware, Warns BofA. (graph)

• Markets Not Cheap" & "Not Enough People Paid The Price For 2008" - SALT Day 2 Post Mortem.

• No Raises For Anyone: Real Hourly Wages Decline For The First Time Since 2012. (graph)

• GM 'Rocked' By "Record" DoT Penalty - Fined 0.02% of Revenue.

• UMich Confidence Tumbles, Misses By Most In 8 Years. (graph)

• United Renter States Of America: Spot What's Wrong With These Housing Charts. (graph)

Business Insider:

• There's A Dark Side To India's New Prime Minister That Should Worry Everyone.

• CHANOS: Macao Is Next.

Reuters:

• Exclusive: Iran pursues ballistic missile work, complicating nuclear talks. Despite apparently reducing illicit purchases that breach U.N. sanctions, Iran is pursuing development of ballistic missiles, a confidential U.N. report says, posing an acute challenge to six powers negotiating with Tehran to rein in its nuclear program. On Sunday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described as "stupid and idiotic" Western expectations for his country to curb its missile program. He decreed mass production of ballistic weapons, striking a defiant tone just before nuclear talks resumed on Wednesday in Vienna. The high-stakes negotiations aim for a deal by a July 20 deadline to end a long stand-off that has raised the risk of a wider Middle East war.

• Exclusive: German industry sees 'irreparable damage' from Russia sanctions. Europe's showdown with Moscow over Ukraine is already having a major impact on German business in Russia and imposing economic sanctions would cause lasting damage to industry, a confidential paper sent to the German government by a business lobby warns. The paper from the German-Russian chamber of foreign trade, a group representing 800 companies that provides support to German firms operating in Russia, underscores the extent of concern among German businesses over the Ukraine crisis. It also suggests industry is stepping up efforts to dissuade Chancellor Angela Merkel's government from pressing ahead with tougher sanctions.

Telegraph:

• Why Europe threatens Britain’s recovery. Our neighbours need to grow if we are to achieve our goal of a balanced economy.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.50%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Hospitals -1.76% 2) Networking 1.16% 3) Steel -1.11%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• WWE, DQ, CHKR, EMES, DRI, WDR, GRFS, ENZY, CSIQ, WAC, FISV, ACXM, AAP, BYI, CHK, ACAT, CCIH, WHZ, PCP, RYAAY, CUK, WFM, LLL, QUNR, BWC, WAC and CHKR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EFA 2) CLF 3) MS 4) DHR 5) KRE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WWE 2) GM 3) CLF 4) BTU 5) WAC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.02%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Retail +1.35% 2) Road & Rail +.98% 3) Tobacco +.78%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• XRS, RAX, JWN, DDS, IBN, ADSK, AMAT, HDB, LRCX, SMCI, PAH, HOS and IFN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DG 2) GGP 3) DLR 4) EPI 5) TSN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JWN 2) JCP 3) RAX 4) EBAY 5) KO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume