Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives -.5% 2) Gold & Silver -.3% 3) Utilities unch.
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • MRCY, CWST, NPWR, BEPC and SMCI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MANU 2) KGC 3) TLRY 4) ORCL 5) BMBL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) LAZR 2) LPSN 3) TDS 4) MEI 5) DPZ
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +1.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Alt Energy +3.8% 2) Oil Service +3.0% 3) Regional Banks +2.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AI, PLAY, EDIT, GME, SYM, VERA, BYND, ASAN, CVNA, HCP, RIVN, UPST, FYBR, SGH, COHR, U, NVCR, ARVN, PLUG, PETQ, LSCC, BE, BC, NCLH, FLNC, AN, REPL, TERN, MP, SDGR, CRDO, MRNS, CUK, DG and CCL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BNTX 2) PLAY 3) ORCL 4) DHC 5) THC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MPAA 2) LUMN 3) AI 4) BIG 5) AKYA

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (LEN)/2.32
Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

  • The PPI Final Demand MoM for May is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  • The PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  • The PPI Final Demand YoY for  May is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +2.3% gain in April.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,112,000 barrels versus a -452,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,019,000 barrels versus a +2,745,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +2,022,170 barrels versus a +5,074,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery utilization is estimated to fall by -.02% versus a +2.7% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 5.0-5.25%.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The FOMC Press Conference/Projections, Eurozone CPI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Cantor Fitzgerald Mobility & Industrial Tech Conference and the (BLK) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +11.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.7 +1.1
  • 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
  • 71.8% of Issues Advancing, 25.1% Declining
  • 119 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
  • 53.2%(+5.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 +5.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.1 +2.8%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,306.0 -.4%
  • 1-Day Vix 12.6 -25.0%
  • Vix 14.7 -2.3% 
  • Total Put/Call .69 -20.7%
  • TRIN/Arms .69 -19.8%

Monday, June 12, 2023

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC.com:
 The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.75 -.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.5 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.1 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.8 +.78%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .04 -3.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 -.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.46%.
  • S&P 500 futures unch.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.7 +6.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .37%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.4 -.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 157.7 +.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.5 +.11%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.2 +.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 135.0 +20.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .80 -5.9%
  • NYSE Arms .84 -7.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.9 +.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 384.08 +1.7%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 411.0 -14.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.5 +1.2% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 287.5 -1.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 167.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.9 -1.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 218.5 -.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.3 -.32%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 31.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 162.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 732.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 85.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.1 -.4%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.23% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.0 euros/megawatt-hour  -3.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -92.1 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.0 +2.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.54 +.17:  Growth Rate +3.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 207.64 +.40: Growth Rate +36.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 36.1 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.10 +3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -82.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.20% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 57.8%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 56.1%(+6.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +246 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -96 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long