Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -.5% 2) Gold & Silver -.3% 3) Utilities unch.

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MRCY, CWST, NPWR, BEPC and SMCI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MANU 2) KGC 3) TLRY 4) ORCL 5) BMBL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LAZR 2) LPSN 3) TDS 4) MEI 5) DPZ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Alt Energy +3.8% 2) Oil Service +3.0% 3) Regional Banks +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AI, PLAY, EDIT, GME, SYM, VERA, BYND, ASAN, CVNA, HCP, RIVN, UPST, FYBR, SGH, COHR, U, NVCR, ARVN, PLUG, PETQ, LSCC, BE, BC, NCLH, FLNC, AN, REPL, TERN, MP, SDGR, CRDO, MRNS, CUK, DG and CCL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BNTX 2) PLAY 3) ORCL 4) DHC 5) THC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MPAA 2) LUMN 3) AI 4) BIG 5) AKYA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (LEN)/2.32
  

Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

• The PPI Final Demand MoM for May is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• The PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• The PPI Final Demand YoY for  May is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +2.3% gain in April.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,112,000 barrels versus a -452,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,019,000 barrels versus a +2,745,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +2,022,170 barrels versus a +5,074,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery utilization is estimated to fall by -.02% versus a +2.7% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 5.0-5.25%.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC Press Conference/Projections, Eurozone CPI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Cantor Fitzgerald Mobility & Industrial Tech Conference and the (BLK) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +11.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.7 +1.1
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 71.8% of Issues Advancing, 25.1% Declining
• 119 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 53.2%(+5.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 +5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.1 +2.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,306.0 -.4%
• 1-Day Vix 12.6 -25.0%
  
• Vix 14.7 -2.3% 
  
• Total Put/Call .69 -20.7%
• TRIN/Arms .69 -19.8%
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• England’s Health Crisis to Deepen Amid Latest Doctors’ Strike
• Foreigners Are Flocking to New Zealand, Immigration Data Show.
• Wall Street Momentum to Support Asian Stocks Open: Markets Wrap.
• Apple Shares Close at Record in Latest Sign of Big Tech’s Dominance.
• San Francisco Dealt Another Blow as Westfield Walks Away From Downtown Mall Property.
• NYC Police Commissioner Keechant Sewell Resigns, Adams Says.
• Instant Pot and Pyrex Maker Instant Brands Files for Bankruptcy.
• Google CEO Vows Not to Rush AI and Says Efficiency Drive Continues.
• Chegg Slashes 4% Of Workforce Following Shift to Embrace AI.
• Citigroup Warns Bond Traders Are Misreading Inflation Ahead of CPI.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Zero Hedge:

• "He's Always Been A C**t": Rogan Rips Biden Over Lifetime Of Lies, Shady Ties To Ukraine And China
• Female-Only Spa With Compulsory Nudity Must Admit 'Transgender Women' With Penises: Judge.
• CPI Set For "Historic" Drop Over "Next Two Months".
• "Rantings Of A Demagogue" - Parents Angered By Princeton President's Graduation Address.
• As Panama Canal Hit With Draft Restrictions, Goldman Says Shippers Have Three Options.
• Goldman: This Is A Rally People Don't Believe In, But Have Finally Given Up Fighting Against.
• Saudi Arabia, China Ink $10 Billion In Investment Deals.
• Women's Group To Spend "Tens Of Millions" To Boost Kamala's Image.
• Pre FOMC FOMO.
• Notes From The Memory Hole: The Great Double-Talking Vaccine Scientist.
• US stocks gained with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 at fresh YTD highs as yields eventually softened ahead of key events - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• US Lawmakers File "SEC Stabilization Act" To Fire Gary Gensler.
• Watch: McCarthy Destroys CNN Reporter When Asked About Classified Doc Scandal.
• Big Tech squeezes market higher into CPI and FOMC - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• 11 Signs That Our Economic Problems Are Accelerating A Lot Faster Than Most People Were Anticipating.
• Can Americans 'Handle The Truth'?
• Bonds, Banks, Bullion, & Black Gold Dip As Mega-Cap Tech Continues To Rip.
• Moving To 'Wall Street South' From NYC Can Save You Up To $200k.

Wall Street Journal:

• Jerome Powell’s Big Problem Just Got More Complicated.
• Executives Quiet Their Diversity, Sustainability Talk.
• Companies That Embraced Social Issues Have Second Thoughts.
• Xi Prepares China for ‘Extreme’ Scenarios.
• Hotel Owners Start to Write Off San Francisco as Business Nosedives.
• Oil-Field-Services Companies Hold Merger Talks.
• U.S. Spy Agencies Buy Vast Quantities of Americans’ Personal Data, U.S. Says.

CNBC.com:

• Big banks are talking up generative A.I. — but they’re not diving in headfirst.
• ILWU Canada West Coast port workers support strike in landslide vote.
• Amazon is using generative A.I. to summarize product reviews.
• FTC files to block Microsoft-Activision as deadline approaches.
• Oracle beats on top and bottom lines as cloud revenue jumps.
• Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino echoes Musk in emphasizing freedom of speech in debut tweet thread.

MarketWatch:

• ‘This is something huge for us’: Food-delivery workers in New York set to earn $18 minimum wage next month
• Investors increasingly expect U.S. stock-market rally to continue as bears finally surrender.
• Bank of America executives blew $93.6 billion. Here’s how they did it.
• Jump in cloud revenue lifts Oracle’s results, and stock gains after hours.

Newsmax:

• Bid to End Senate Standoff on Military Promotions, Abortion Policy Fizzles.
• Miami Girds for Arraignment.  
• Riley Gaines: Biden WH Out to 'Erase Women'.

Fox News:

• Catholic bishops torch the Dodgers for honoring drag nun group
• San Francisco mall owner hands property back to bank as exodus continues

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Conservatives Call for Kellogg’s Boycott After Dylan Mulvaney Poses with Tony the Tiger at the Tony Awards (VIDEO).
• Sen. Chuck Grassley Reveals Foreign National in Alleged Biden Burisma Bribe Scheme Has 17 Audio Recordings of Joe and Hunter Biden He Kept as “Insurance Policy” (Video)
• Trump Attorney General William Barr Reveals He Had Intimate Knowledge of Biden Ukraine FD-1023 Investigation in Summer 2020; Failed to Tell American People Joe Biden Was Credibly Accused of Taking $5 Million Foreign Bribe as Vice President.
• Joe Biden To Group of LGBTQ+ Supporters: This is Most Courageous Group “I’ve seen in anytime in the recent past”…Forgets 13 Military Members Murdered By Terrorists While Protecting Airport In Hostile Afghanistan With No Support [VIDEO].
• “TRANTIFA”…UN Investigator and Republican Lawmakers Warn Of New Violent Extremist Group [VIDEO].
• Comer Says More FBI Documents Detailing Biden Bribery Scheme Exist (VIDEO).
• Award-Winning 42 Year Old ESPN Director and Former Athlete Dies After Suffering Unknown Medical Emergency at NCAA Baseball Tournament.
• Jeffrey Epstein Trafficking Ring: JPMorgan Chase Bank Settles With ‘Jane Doe’ Victim – Value Is Said to Be $290 Million.
• Louisiana Sovereignty Resolution Should Be Model for Entire Nation as DC Government Becomes Increasingly Lawless.
• FOX News Sends Tucker Carlson Cease and Desist Letter as His Twitter Videos Crash 100 Million Views – His Attorney Responds.

 The Epoch Times:

• Saudi Arabia Signs Investment Deals Worth $10 Billion With China
• Honduras Opens Embassy in China After Breaking Off Ties With Taiwan

Twitter: 

• @The_Real_Fly - DEGENERACY ON THE WHITE HOUSE LAWN *. (video)
• @FxHedgers - AMERICANS SHOULD PREPARE FOR CYBER SABOTAGE FROM CHINESE HACKERS: US OFFICIAL.
• @jsolomonReports - DON'T BACK THE COURT PACK! | POLL SHOWS MOST AMERICANS AGAINST COURT PACKING.
• @stkirsch - If you think the FDA cares about safety and transparency, you should read this article right now. You'll see that they really don't. There is no doubt about it.
• @SayNoToSino -  Marriages in China slump to historic low - Reuters.
• @CitizenFreePres - Children are watching this garbage at DC parade. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 964,389 Reports(+1,106 from prior week) Through June 2nd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.75 -.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 61.5 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.1 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.8 +.78%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .04 -3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.46%.

• S&P 500 futures unch.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.7 +6.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .37%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.4 -.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 157.7 +.18%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.5 +.11%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.2 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 135.0 +20.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .80 -5.9%

• NYSE Arms .84 -7.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.9 +.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 384.08 +1.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 411.0 -14.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.5 +1.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 287.5 -1.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 167.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.9 -1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 218.5 -.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.3 -.32%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 31.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 162.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 732.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 85.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.1 -.4%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.23% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.0 euros/megawatt-hour  -3.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -92.1 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.0 +2.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.54 +.17:  Growth Rate +3.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 207.64 +.40: Growth Rate +36.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 36.1 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.10 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -82.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.20% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 57.8%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 56.1%(+6.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +246 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -96 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long