Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,424.9 +3.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 34,375.8 +1.6%

• NASDAQ 13,727.7 +3.8%

• Russell 2000 1,864.26 +.43%

• NYSE FANG+ 7,803.1 +4.97% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 35.54 +6.6%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 154.61 +4.9%

• Wilshire 5000 44,111.9 +2.89%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,750.69 +3.8%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,546.6 +2.2%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 778.9 +2.2%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,253.2 +2.4%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,726.8 +5.6%

• Transports 14,807.8 +4.1%

• Utilities 928.10 +1.4%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 81.8 +1.0%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.96 +2.69%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,490.3 +.24%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 928.9 +.22%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 459,915 +.63%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 6.2 -25.3%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 835 +651
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -20.5 +.4%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 172,442 +6.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,951,628 +1.6%

• Total Put/Call .79 -8.2%

• OEX Put/Call 3.03 +50.6%

• ISE Sentiment 142.0 +17.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .84 +33.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.4 +1.0%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +14.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -4.02 +11.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 -6.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .64% +16.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.7 -1.2%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.58 +.53%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.86 -6.7%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,794.3 +1.4%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  81.7 -8.4
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.452 Trillion -.09%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.473 Million

• AAII % Bulls 45.2 +1.6%

• AAII % Bears 22.7 -6.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 266.91 +2.5%

• Crude Oil 71.56/bbl. +1.34%

• Reformulated Gasoline 267.62 +2.44%

• Natural Gas 2.62 +16.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.0 euros/megawatt-hour +6.9%
  

• Heating Oil 254.5 +7.4% 
• Newcastle Coal 144.5 (1,000/metric ton) -3.3%
  

• Gold 1,958.7 -.16%
• Silver 24.14 -.87%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 426.0 +2.0%

• Copper 388.7 +3.1%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 386.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.4 USD/Metric Tonne +4.5%

• CME Lumber  531.5 +3.8%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,657.8 +6.8%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 390.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +1.77% -43.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.2% -4.1 percentage points
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index .93 +3.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 87.8 +64.2%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(500 of 500 reporting) -3.6% -.9 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.55 +.18:  Growth Rate +3.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 16.2 +.6 
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.9% -.2 percentage point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 208.35 +1.15: Growth Rate +36.9% +.7 percentage point, P/E 37.5 +1.9
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.3 +1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -91.4 +.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.6 -4.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.75-5.0%, 23.1%(-7.0 percentage points) chance of no change, 76.9%(+24.1 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.25-5.50% on 7/26
  

• US Dollar Index 102.29 -1.2%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,692.97 +.27%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 26,195.0 +.22%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 163.09 +1.0%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -96.75 -11.75 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.77% +3.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.352 Trillion -.01% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.317 Billion +8.5%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.77 +2.7%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 173.07 -1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 157.0 -17.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.09 +3.2%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.6 -5.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1843 -5.9%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.5 -8.0%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.8 -4.8%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.55 +.55%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.4% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +4.8% -.5 percentage point
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +6.7% -.9 percentage point
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.6% -.6 percentage point
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% -.1 percentage point: CPI YoY +3.22% -.91 percentage point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23% +2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 29.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 +6.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.68 -1.4%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 228.0 +1.4% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 411.0 -14.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 87.92 +.45%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 290.7 -2.3%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 215.1 -2.1%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 156.0 -9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 726.0 -4.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .83 -3.0 basis points
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -4.6% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,130.1 +1.7%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 246,750 +3.9%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.3 +5.6%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.99% -6.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 208,800 +7.2%

• Weekly Retail Sales +.5% -10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -4.0% unch.
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross YoY $20.8M +68.6%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.58/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 1,094 +3.7%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 926.6 -.56%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 +38.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 46.9 -5.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 242,153 +9.9%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,730,123 +17.6%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +.1%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.9%

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +6.8%

• Software +5.7%
• Networking +5.6%
  

• Cyber Security +5.3%
  

• Semis +5.0%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Energy -.4%
  

• Banks -.6%
  

• Regional Banks -1.0%

• Healthcare Providers -2.7%
  

• Education -3.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (14)

• IRBT, ENVX, COHR, PKST, VERA, CRNC, AMPH, GLW, U, AR, SQSP, ACMR, CGEM and HSIC
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)

• EMBC, MRCY, SKM, VGR, PROK, NVEI, HUM, ARE, CWAN, ZUMZ, OEC, BASE, IAS, ZI, CBT and NPWR
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (FDX)/4.86
• (LZB)/.72
  

Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for May is estimated to fall to 1395K versus 1401K in April.
• Building Permits for May is estimated to rise to 1423K versus 1416K in April.
• Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for June is estimated at n/a versus -16.0 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, PBOC rate decision, NAHB Housing Market Index release on Mon., Jefferies Consumer Conference and the BofA Tech/Media/Communications Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +29.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 4.8 -6.9
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 40.0% of Issues Advancing, 56.0% Declining
• 115 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 53.7%(+1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 68.0 +2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.7 -.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,458.0 unch.
• 1-Day Vix 10.8 -28.2%
  
• Vix 14.2 -2.0% 
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -14.6%
• TRIN/Arms .94 +49.2%
  

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.75 -.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 61.25 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 112.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.86%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.4 +.15%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.7 +1.4%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 +.07%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.11%.

• S&P 500 futures -.24%%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.36%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Close on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Fed Pause Expectations, China Stimulus Optimism, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.4 +3.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.58%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.8 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 161.5 +1.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 -1.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.4 +1.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 +19.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -19.8%

• NYSE Arms .63 -41.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.3 -.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 373.49 -.58%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 403.0 -1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.21 +.57% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 295.3 +1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.12 +.23%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.57 +.29%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.1 -.3%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 32.75 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 157.0 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 731.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 85.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.3 +.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.20% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.1 euros/megawatt-hour  +7.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.2 -1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -91.3 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.1 -2.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(500 of 500 reporting) -3.6% -.9 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.50 unch.:  Growth Rate +3.1% unch., P/E 19.1 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.23% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 207.93 +.24: Growth Rate +36.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 37.5 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.03 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -91.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.77% -43.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 62.2%(+4.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 60.4%(+5.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +95 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +24 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

• NY Fed Services Business Activity for June.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for June is estimated to rise to 60.0 versus 59.2 in May.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for June is estimated to fall to +4.1% versus +4.2% in May.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking and the German CPI report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST