Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 48.2 versus 47.9 in Aug.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 50.7 versus 50.5 in Aug.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 50.4 versus 50.2 in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -1.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 -1.9
  
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 15.8% of Issues Advancing, 82.3% Declining
• 8 New 52-Week Highs, 146 New Lows
• 39.2%(-5.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.0 -13.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.1 -.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,241.9 -.53%
• 1-Day Vix 10.9 -21.0%
  
• Vix 16.4 +8.5%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.03 -3.7%
• TRIN/Arms .85 -31.0%
  

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.0 +.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 76.75 +2.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 121.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.44%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.4 +.04%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 47.0 +1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, US Govt Shutdown Worries, US Auto Strike Concerns, Tech/Electric Vehicle Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.2 +.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .45%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.9 -1.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.1 +.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.34 -.24%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.5 +1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +28.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 +1.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 +19.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.4 +8.3% (new series)
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 306.4 -1.27%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 329.0 -8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.63 +7.3% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 280.2 +6.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 175.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.2 +4.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 211.08 +5.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.08 +.02%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.5 basis points -2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 166.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 908.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 78.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 +.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.47% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.3 euros/megawatt-hour +1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.2 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -51.2 +6.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.9 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +6.1% -1.1 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.41 +.01:  Growth Rate +8.9% unch., P/E 18.6 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.45 +.24: Growth Rate +58.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 29.1 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .28 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -78.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.86% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 56.9%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 54.5%(-4.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +56 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +155 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity/transport/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles -.6% 2) Energy -.3% 3) Software -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ZIP, ZGN, XMTR, WMG, CHWY, HDB, ZBRA, CELH, AKRO, BGNE and EBC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BXMT 2) SLG 3) VLY 4) ARM 5) KBH
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CHWY 2) IBB 3) MASI 4) CLX 5) HE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Services +2.6% 2) Gold & Silver +1.8% 3) Road & Rail +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SCS, HAIN, GCT, DOMO, GT, BBW, GSHD, WDC, COTY, SLVM, TXT, IFF, SBRA, SWBI, JBI, PINS, EBIX, VSTO, BALL, IBM, CDLX and MIRM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APO 2) ARM 3) GT 4) CWH 5) GLD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SCS 2) CATC 3) COTY 4) SLVM 5) WDC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume