Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GCO)/.29

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Nov. is estimated to rise to 218K versus 12K in Oct.
• The Unemployment Rate for Nov. is estimated at 4.1% versus 4.1% in Oct.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Dec. is estimated to rise to 73.3 versus 71.8 in Nov.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for Dec. is estimated to rise to +2.7% versus +2.6% in Nov.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Oct. is estimated to rise to $10.0B versus $6.002B in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count, American Society of Hematology Meeting and the (CPRT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.2 -1.3
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 44.5% of Issues Advancing, 53.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .77 -55.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$9.4M
  
• 126 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 62.1% (-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.4 +.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.3 +.14%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,874.5 +.52%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 7.9 -1.6%
  
• Vix 13.5 +.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .72 -8.9%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• The only time anyone should watch the news is to study how psychological manipulation works on the general public. True.
• Didn’t every single long vote count go towards the Democrats? At least one of which had ballots disappear? Must be a coincidence.

• @TonySeruga

• The use of a suppressor was a red flag, and all the amateur sleuths theorizing the shooter was a novice and that very well might be, but it’s interesting the shooter went to manual cycling of the pistol immediately, with zero hesitation. I believe he knew this was going to happen beforehand. A novice would have probably panicked. But why use this set up in the first place? And the "tomahawk" presentation of the pistol, was this intentional, maybe a pro trying to appear to be a novice? (video)

• @MarioNawful

• GENDER-AFFIRMING CARE FOR MINORS SURGES BY 150% YOY. The database by "Do No Harm" revealed a 150% year-over-year increase in gender-affirming surgeries for minors, with 5,700 operations performed between 2019-2023. Over 13,994 minors received treatment, including 8,579 on puberty blockers or hormone therapy, costing $119M in total. California leads with $28M spent and 1,359 surgeries.

• @LauraLoomer
  

• BREAKING: Biden White House is reportedly considering preemptive pardons for Adam Schiff, Liz Cheney, and Anthony Fauci. Nothing says someone is a complete criminal like giving them a preemptive pardon before they are even charged with a crime.

• @HealthRanger

• HERE WE GO! Vaccine researcher Peter Hotez says multiple viruses will be unleashed on America the day after Trump takes office. “We have some big picture stuff coming down the pike starting on January 21st.” This same guy (Hotez) who threatened to use NATO to enforce vaccine compliance and arrest truth-tellers now just straight-up issues a thinly-veiled threat to unleash a slew of biological weapons onto the world the very day Trump takes office. How is this not a credible threat of promising to unleash bioweapons on America? IMO, these people are insane and desperate, and they're losing the info war so they want to unleash a bio-war. (video)

• @OcrazioCornPop

• COVER UP OPERATION: Maurene Comey, daughter of former FBI Director James Comey, has joined the prosecution team in the case against Sean "Diddy" Combs. Maurene Comey was the lead prosecutor in Ghislaine Maxwell trial. This is now a Fed Mop Up Operation to protect high profile Democrats from being exposed!

• @bennyjohnson

• BOMBSHELL! FBI whistleblower Steve Friend reveals open operation inside FBI to sabotage Kash Patel nomination: "There's actually a full counter-intelligence investigation open on Kash Patel at this time..." (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho
  

• “There’s no graffiti, they’re no foul smells, there’s no bums, or drug addicts, or rapists”. Tucker Carlson compares a subway in Moscow to those in America. Something has gone horrifically wrong in The West & people are sitting up taking notice & realising it’s all been by design. (video)

• @TheChiefNerd

• WTF! Dr. Richard Ebright Says Fauci Funded the Reconstruction of the 1918 Influenza Virus by 'Exhuming Corpses From the Arctic Tundra'. "Researchers obtained the full genome sequence of the virus by exhuming corpses from the Arctic tundra of persons who had been killed in the 1918 pandemic, extracting nucleic acids from the corpses and reconstructing the sequence of the virus ... And it became clear very early that the research had been funded by the NIH, by Anthony Fauci, and had been funded without having performed any form of risk benefit assessment." (video)

• @WarClandestine
  

• People ask me all the time how I got so deep into Ukraine, and how I knew to look where I was looking. The enemy told me. They told on themselves, when they unleashed an Orwellian censorship campaign on me, for getting too close to the answer. Their panic showed me the way. I wrote one viral Twitter thread about US-funded biolabs in Ukraine, it caused a global media stir, I was nuked on all social media simultaneously, IP addresses blacklisted, MSM/fact-checkers wrote hundreds of articles ‘debunking’ me, and the US government started wiping their own embassy pages where I got the information. Only for Victoria Nuland herself to prove me correct, just a couple weeks later in public testimony. At that moment in February 2022, I knew that I had stumbled onto something way bigger than I had ever imagined, and found myself right in the middle of it. So I abandoned my job, dedicated everything to independent journalism, and I’ve been hellbent on exposing it ever since.

• @JesseKellyDC

• Step 1: Announce Kash Patel has been hacked by Iran. Step 2: The FBI, who did the actually hacking, leaks the damaging stuff to the media. Step 3: The media runs with the smears and Republicans in the Senate use that as an excuse to reject Kash.

• @stillgray

• Europe’s heaviest migrant cities are also the ones where crime has completely spiraled out of control. (video)
  

• @amuse

• DOGE: Since Senator Joni Ernst is leading the effort to deny Trump his cabinet picks, it is a HUGE mistake to trust her to helm the DOGE Caucus. @VivekGRamaswamy we can’t keep rewarding betrayal. (pic)

• @nicksortor
  

• JUST IN: Capitol Hill sources tell me Lindsey Graham is the leading force to DERAIL Pete Hegseth’s nomination for Secretary of Defense.

• @WallStreetApes

• UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson murdered by a masked gunman. Nancy Pelosi bought Palo Alto shares right BEFORE United Healthcare announced their recent security breach. Palo Alto Networks is a cybersecurity company partnered with UnitedHealth Group to secure their systems after a cyberattack. UnitedHealthcare is currently in the middle of a Federal investigation with the US Department of Justice.
• FBI Agent reveals The FBI gave instructions to not go after liberals rioting. This is why Democrats never get arrested for rioting but January 6th protesters are hunted down. “May 29th, far left extremists were firebombing the White House and Saint John's Church. They were putting secret service guys in the hospital”. (video)
  

• @TheTranscript

• $AMZN AWS CEO on $NVDA: "I actually think most will probably be Nvidia for a long time, because they’re 99% of the workloads today, and so that’s probably not going to change. But, hopefully, Trainium can carve out a good niche where I actually think it’s going to be a great option for many workloads—not all workloads".

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.75 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.5 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.2 +.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.1 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.45% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.7 -8.9 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -23.4 +1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.2 -1.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(489 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.38 +.04:  Growth Rate +13.3% unch., P/E 22.5 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.56 +.03: Growth Rate +22.4% unch., P/E 33.7 +.9
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 +19.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 5.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.16% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.5% -1.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 62.4%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 48.6%(+4.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +360 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -105 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -3.0% 2) Oil Service -2.6% 3) Energy -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CRDO, GPRK, LYB, THO, VCTR, TGS, DAVE, CRGY, CERT, FRO, OPRA, LOMA, NAMS, MCHP, CHWY, CPB, MKTX, BOX, FLNC, LUNR, FL, TOST, MP, FOUR, GXO, ZJK and BASE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KR 2) S 3) FL 4) NOK 5) YOU
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FL 2) THO 3) WOLF 4) LUNR 5) AILE
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) PKB 3) XLY 4) PSI 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +2.6% 2) Internet +2.4% 3) Software +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CCRN, MRVL, PSTG, GRPN, DAKT, ALT, INOD, STOK, SFHG, PRO, JANX, APGE, INOD, ROKU, METC, BTDR, NBIS, ZETA, RNG, CRM, ACIC, MXL, U, IREN, FTRE, AOSL, SSYS, MAT, PRTA, PSN, DDOG, WBTN, PATH, NOW, TEAM, LITE, SDA, DNA, NATL, HUBS, AAOI, MDB, WDAY, GEO, ZS, SPT, OKTA, NET, CMG, SMWB, SNOW, CART, S, CFLT, GTLB, CRWD, BMRN, TDG, VEEV, ALRM, SPT, MNDY, PYPL, ASAN, FVRR, AES, BILL, DT, SQ, GRAL, NTAP, PCOR, HAS, RPD and NU
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) YOU 2) PSTG 3) KTOS 4) OKTA 5) MRVL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MRVL 2) CRM 3) ROKU 4) MDB 5) OKTA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) VGT 3) EIPI 4) XLP 5) COPX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume