Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (AI)/-.16
• (CASY)/4.29
• (MDB)/.67
• (ORCL)/1.48
• (TOL)/4.34
• (MTN)/-4.99
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Oct.
  

11:00 am EST

• The NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The CB Employment Trends Index for Nov., Raymond James TMT/Consumer Conference, American Society of Hematology Meeting, BofA Home Care Conference, American Epilepsy Meeting, (ALK) investor day, (CSCO) annual meeting and the UBS Media/Communications Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.6 -.6
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 40.7% of Issues Advancing, 56.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.10 +14.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$17.4M
  
• 117 New 52-Week Highs, 58 New Lows
• 61.6% (+.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 -7.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.6 -.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.6 +.87%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,044.2 +.98%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 53.0 (NEUTRAL) -3
  
• 1-Day Vix 7.0 -36.8%
  
• Vix 13.1 -3.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 +3.7%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Key Ally of South Korea’s Leader Now Wants Him Gone in Shift.
• Wall Street Banks Predict Biggest China Rate Cuts in a Decade.
• Starmer Living Standards Goal Hampered By UK Tax Rises, CBI Says. 
• The Link Between Cheap Yen and Japan Stocks Rally Completely Breaks Down.
• Morgan Stanley’s Wang Says China at Risk of More Earnings Misses. 
• Asian Equities Edge Lower Ahead of US Jobs Data.
• Oil Steadies as OPEC+ Once Again Delays Plan to Restore Output.
• Bond Traders Leaning on Fed Rate Cuts Eye US Jobs Data for Clues.
• Musk’s xAI Wraps Up $6 Billion in Funding in Latest Round.
• FCC Responds to Chinese Attack on Telecom Firms With New Rules.
• Palantir Teams Up With Shield AI on AI-Powered Autonomous Aircraft.
• US Electricity Demand Forecast to Surge 16% Over Next Five Years.
• Lilly to Boost Obesity Drug Supply With $3 Billion Expansion.

Zerohedge: 

• Taylor Lorenz Says 'We Want These Executives Dead' Hours After Health Insurance CEO Murdered.
• DEI Is Deflating.
• Visualizing What Americans Eat.
• How Often People Go To The Doctor, By Country.
• Technocracy Rising, Part 1: Why It's Crucial To Understand The End Game.
• Which Jobs Will Be Most Impacted By Trump's Mass Deportation Of Illegal Aliens.
• China-Linked Hackers Breached 8 US Telecom Companies, White House Says.
• These Are The Best (And Worst) American Cities For Economic Mobility.
• 54 Democratic Lawmakers Urge Biden To Distribute Climate Funds Before He Leaves Office.
• US stocks finished lower with underperformance in small-caps after higher initial jobless claims and layoffs ahead of the NFP report - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Asian Solar Panel Stockpiles Face December 3rd Deployment Deadline To Avoid Billions In Retroactive Tariffs.
• Looking at the world through a negative lens.
• Europe is in deep shit - but everyone has already traded it.
• How Big Is America's Middle Class in 2024?
• Dollar sold, Stocks lower, and Treasuries flatten as pivotal payrolls awaits - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Skynet? Palmer Luckey & Sam Altman Combine Forces For "National Security Missions" 
• Bitcoin Pump'n'Dump Back Below $100k, Gold & The Dollar Pummeled Ahead Of Payrolls Print.

The Wall Stree Journal:

• The Bitcoin Boom and Easy Money.
• Syrian Rebels’ Sudden Advance Creates ‘Real Possibility’ of Assad’s Fall.
• Judge Rejects Boeing Guilty Plea Over DEI Requirement.
• He Was Going to Save Intel. He Destroyed $150 Billion of Value Instead.
• Republicans Embrace DOGE on Capitol Hill.
• How Trump Is Rethinking Economic Power.
• The UC Berkeley Project That Is the AI Industry’s Obsession.
• Six Hours of Chaos That Dragged South Korea Into Martial Law and Back.
• A Mexican Factory Paid Off for a U.S. Manufacturer. Tariffs Could Make It a Liability.
• French Government’s Collapse Lands Macron in a Minefield.

CNBC:

• U.S. exceptionalism seems difficult to dismiss for now.
• There’s an important jobs report coming Friday. Here’s what to expect.
• Trump says venture capitalist David Sacks will be AI and crypto ‘czar’.
• Ulta Beauty shares pop as retailer beats earnings expectations despite demand fears.
• Executives seek more protection after killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO: Risk management firm Kroll.
• Lululemon stock jumps as international growth helps to offset slowing U.S. sales.
• More Americans are living in malls, as developers get creative to help ease the housing crisis.
• Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield halts anesthesia payment policy after backlash.

MarketWatch.com:

• Wall Street isn’t worried about a stock-market crash. That’s why you should be. 
• What’s next after bitcoin tops $100K? What one top Wall Street technician says. 
• HPE sees more than 30% growth in server sales as AI boom rolls on.
• On Watch podcast: Intel’s decline, AI’s rise and why semiconductors matter.
• Petco’s new CEO wants to make these changes to its stores, as shares rally.
• Stock buybacks soar as holiday rally breaks records.
• The IPO market could bounce back in 2025. Investors, take note. 

Fox News:

• Republicans hint at plans after meetings with Ramaswamy and Musk: ‘Going to gut the fish’.
• Former WaPo reporter doubles down on comments seeming to celebrate CEO's murder.

Newsmax:  

• Sen. Blackburn Set to Unveil DOGE Act Cost-Cutting Measures.
• Report: Only 6% of Fed Employees Work in Person Daily.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• FIREWORKS! Acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe Goes Bonkers and Starts a Shouting Match With Rep. Pat Fallon During Hearing on Trump Assassination Attempts After Being Showed a Damning Picture (VIDEO).
• JUST IN: Senator Cornyn Says Kash Patel Has Enough Votes to Be Confirmed the Next FBI Director.
• Pres. Trump and RFK Jr. Meet Big Pharma Executives from Pfizer and Eli Lilly at Mar-a-Lago: Report.
• VIDEOS: Transgender Activists Arrested for Holding Capitol Bathroom Sit-In to Protest Speaker Johnson’s Policy.
• Dr. McCullough on “The Holy Grail Of COVID-19 Vaccine Detoxification”.
• WATCH: Joe Rogan Praises Elon Musk’s ‘Community Notes’ on X as “The Best to Counter Misinformation” — Musk Responds: “The Counter to Misinformation is Better Information”.
• Sen. Joni Ernst Secretly Campaigns to Torpedo Pete Hegseth’s Defense Secretary Nomination — Even Calls Trump to Consider Her as Replacement: Report.
• Globalist French Government Falls: The Rise of Conservatism in Europe.
• WATCH: Right Wing Outsider, Favorite in Romanian Elections, Georgescu Blasts Globalists: ‘The Pedophile Oligarchs Run the UN – More Than 8 Million Children Go Missing Each Year’.
• CHILLING: Muhammad Becomes Most Popular Boys’ Name in Britain For First Time in History.
• More Americans Want J6ers Pardoned, as 68 Percent of Dems Support Case-by-Case Reviews if Pardons Go Forward.

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing Adopts Softer Approach in Asia Amid Heightened US–China Tensions.
• Why the US Is Concerned About China-Linked Drug Operations in Canada.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Is the New York Times the most dangerous "news" organization in America? It seems like it is captured by the military industrial complex. The New York Times is woke warmonger propaganda. (pic)
  

• @TonySeruga

• The Romney Crime Family! What a cesspool! Liz Cheney and her daddy were not only mixed in with Hunter Biden’s Chinese and Ukrainian business dealings, they were business partners in more than a couple of ventures: Paul Ryan, Tagg and his daddy, Mittens Romney! Paul Ryan even joined the private equity firm Solamere Capital as a PARTNER, Solamere Capital was founded by Mitten’s son, Tagg Romney, Eric Scheuermann and Spencer Zwick, the firm uses SPACs to hide controversial companies they’ve invested in, including Russian and Ukrainian oil/gas fields at the start of the Russia/Ukraine war, negotiated by Halliburton with neocon/warmongers like Dick and Liz Cheney, George and Jeb Bush. All are STILL profiting from the corruption in Ukraine. (pic)

• @TheChiefNerd
  

• ROGAN: "The House released a 500 page report on COVID-19 pandemic key findings ... The Select Subcommittee on Coronavirus Pandemic basically said all the conspiracy theorists were correct. Every single one of them. No repercussions, no retractions, no apology from Rachel Maddow. None of it." (video)

• @MarioNawful

• OH GREAT, NOW BREAKFAST IS KILLING US!? A new study claims oatmeal might come with a side of brain damage. It links glyphosate, the weed killer in RoundUp, to Alzheimer’s-like brain changes. Glyphosate is everywhere—cereal, orange juice, 300 million pounds of U.S. crops—and 81% of Americans have been exposed. Meanwhile, the EPA says it’s fine, even as countries like Germany and Spain ban it. (pic)
  

• @Holden_Culotta
  

• RFK Jr. sounds the alarm on HSB 737, a new bill to grant pesticide manufacturers IMMUNITY for poisoning Americans. Chemical companies literally argued they need immunity because lawsuits over the damages caused by their products will “put them out of business.” RFK: “This is the apogee for corporate socialism. It’s a license for chemical companies to poison Americans with NO liability.” (video)

• @MJTruchUltra

• HAHAHAHAHA! BREAKING: The National Black Church Initiative, which represents 28+ Million Black Americans, issued a letter Demanding MSNBC FIRE Al Sharpton and Investigate the Payments Kamala Harris made to his Civil Rights Organization. “For many ministers, this type of action puts a moral stain on the integrity of the black Church. The Rev. Al Sharpton needs to fully disclose the nature of the $500,000, why it was given and received, and for what purpose,” it reads. “Where are the receipts? And did Rev. Sharpton receive any funds, and if so, what and for what purpose?”

• @Breaking911

• JOHNSON: “We’re very frustrated by what the Biden admin. appears to be doing right now…as someone said on a hidden camera in the administration, who is charged with distributing the funds, said, ‘It’s like we’re dumping gold bars off the Titanic.’” (video)
  

• @thefoodbabe

• Breaking: Fruit Loops sales are tanking! Down 54.6% in last 12 weeks. American companies cannot continue poisoning us with artificial ingredients they don’t use in other countries or they will go bankrupt! RIP Froot Loops. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho
  

• Meanwhile in Ireland. The construction of dozens of migrant camps continues - these facilities are huge & will hold thousands of fighting age military men, all against the wishes of the Irish public. Question is why. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• It has been over 2 months since Hurricane Helene. James O’Keefe just went to North Carolina and spoke with victims, FEMA STILL HASN’T HELPED THEM. “Has FEMA come to help you? No, they haven't” Hurricane victims sleeping in tents in the cold. (video)
• Chicago Residents wants Donald Trump’s Department of Justice to Investigate Democrat Leaders. “Y'all don't care about the U.S. Constitution at all. Y'all don't care about it at all. The city of Chicago is the most corrupt city on the planet, and it's run by a democratic machine”. “You guys have been doing this for decades — and it's going to stop because Trump is getting in office. And the first thing that's going to happen is the Department of Justice is going to come here.” (video)

• @naomirwolf

• The Brian Thompson (RIP) shooting story has all the hallmarks of a directed narrative. Somehow video and still images all appear magically from many locations in the custody of the NYTimes. The shooter's whereabouts before and after are mapped in nanoseconds. A cellphone is dropped in an alley! NYPD spokespeople declare a targeted shooting before any investigation, and warn that healthcare CEOs should get security. Feels like a threat to others to me.

• @WallStreetMav
  

• Look at all of the crazy things they invent that cause "climate change". This is a mental illness. (pic)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,016,047 Reports(+2,606 from prior report) Through October 25, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.25 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.75 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.4 +.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.3 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Financial/Airline Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.56%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.44% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.3 -2.4 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -23.7 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.44 +.06:  Growth Rate +13.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.5 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.73 +.17: Growth Rate +22.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.9 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .89 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 2.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.29% +13.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.9% +1.4 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 58.9%(-4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.9%(-5.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +45 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.0%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -3.2% 2) Healthcare Providers -2.2% 3) Semis -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ESTC, FL, MRVL, MSTR, CCK, MCHP, AS, GMS, INTC, TD, FI, ANSS, WLY, BALL, SMLR, KFY, UBER, LYFT, ZUMZ, NCNO, SIG, S, CGON, SNPS, AEO, AVAV, ACMR, AAOI, CAL and ZJK
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AEO 2) HPE 3) XLB 4) S 5) ACMR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNPS 2) AEO 3) SIG 4) AEHR 5) S
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) XLK 4) XLY 5) VHT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +3.4% 2) Video Gaming +1.4% 3) Banks +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ORIS, SOUN, VRNT, MEI, BBW, CAPR, SEI, AAL, SYM, BTDR, BF/B, FIVE, ZBIO, MIR, GRAL, NFE, TAC, IONQ, RYAAY, HUT, APLD, RBLX, APP, GRPN, CM, PDCO, BBVA, DEO, BILL, STLA, GLNG, RIVN, IBN, TSLA, BMO, UTI, ING, PLTR and MRNA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BLUE 2) SNPS 3) XLB 4) JMIA 5) TAC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VRNT 2) FIVE 3) BF/B 4) TSLA 5) BBW
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLB 3) KRE 4) XLU 5) SOXX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume