Friday, December 06, 2024

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (AI)/-.16
  • (CASY)/4.29
  • (MDB)/.67
  • (ORCL)/1.48
  • (TOL)/4.34
  • (MTN)/-4.99
Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Oct.

11:00 am EST

  • The NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Nov.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The CB Employment Trends Index for Nov., Raymond James TMT/Consumer Conference, American Society of Hematology Meeting, BofA Home Care Conference, American Epilepsy Meeting, (ALK) investor day, (CSCO) annual meeting and the UBS Media/Communications Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +5.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.6 -.6
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 40.7% of Issues Advancing, 56.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.10 +14.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$17.4M
  • 117 New 52-Week Highs, 58 New Lows
  • 61.6% (+.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 -7.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.6 -.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.6 +.87%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,044.2 +.98%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 53.0 (NEUTRAL) -3
  • 1-Day Vix 7.0 -36.8%
  • Vix 13.1 -3.6%
  • Total Put/Call .84 +3.7%

Thursday, December 05, 2024

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

Zerohedge: 

The Wall Stree Journal:
CNBC:
MarketWatch.com:
Fox News:
Newsmax:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @TonySeruga
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @MarioNawful
  • @Holden_Culotta
  • @MJTruchUltra
  • @Breaking911
  • @thefoodbabe
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • Meanwhile in Ireland. The construction of dozens of migrant camps continues - these facilities are huge & will hold thousands of fighting age military men, all against the wishes of the Irish public. Question is why. (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @naomirwolf
  • The Brian Thompson (RIP) shooting story has all the hallmarks of a directed narrative. Somehow video and still images all appear magically from many locations in the custody of the NYTimes. The shooter's whereabouts before and after are mapped in nanoseconds. A cellphone is dropped in an alley! NYPD spokespeople declare a targeted shooting before any investigation, and warn that healthcare CEOs should get security. Feels like a threat to others to me.
  • @WallStreetMav
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.25 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.09%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.4 +.9%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.3 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Financial/Airline Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.56%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.44% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.3 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -23.7 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.2 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.44 +.06:  Growth Rate +13.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.73 +.17: Growth Rate +22.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.9 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .89 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 +1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve 2.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.29% +13.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.9% +1.4 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 58.9%(-4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.9%(-5.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +45 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail -3.2% 2) Healthcare Providers -2.2% 3) Semis -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ESTC, FL, MRVL, MSTR, CCK, MCHP, AS, GMS, INTC, TD, FI, ANSS, WLY, BALL, SMLR, KFY, UBER, LYFT, ZUMZ, NCNO, SIG, S, CGON, SNPS, AEO, AVAV, ACMR, AAOI, CAL and ZJK
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AEO 2) HPE 3) XLB 4) S 5) ACMR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SNPS 2) AEO 3) SIG 4) AEHR 5) S
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) XLK 4) XLY 5) VHT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +3.4% 2) Video Gaming +1.4% 3) Banks +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ORIS, SOUN, VRNT, MEI, BBW, CAPR, SEI, AAL, SYM, BTDR, BF/B, FIVE, ZBIO, MIR, GRAL, NFE, TAC, IONQ, RYAAY, HUT, APLD, RBLX, APP, GRPN, CM, PDCO, BBVA, DEO, BILL, STLA, GLNG, RIVN, IBN, TSLA, BMO, UTI, ING, PLTR and MRNA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BLUE 2) SNPS 3) XLB 4) JMIA 5) TAC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VRNT 2) FIVE 3) BF/B 4) TSLA 5) BBW
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLB 3) KRE 4) XLU 5) SOXX
Charts: