Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.2 +.5
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 58.3% of Issues Advancing, 39.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.83 +62.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$123.3M
  
• 76 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
• 62.7% (+.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.9 +.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.0 +.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,484.5 +1.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 51.0 (NEUTRAL) +2
  
• 1-Day Vix 6.5 -35.4%
  
• Vix 13.6 -4.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -6.0%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.25 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.t5 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.5 +.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.3 -.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.20%

• S&P 500 futures +.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 -.2
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 46.3% of Issues Advancing, 51.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .86 +19.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$128.0M
  
• 54 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 62.6% (-.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.0 -9.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.1 +1.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.1 +.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,097.6 +.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 49.0 (NEUTRAL) -2
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.3 +6.8%
  
• Vix 14.1 -1.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -1.3%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.25 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.8 +1.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.3 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.34%

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mid-East Regional War Fears, Sector Rotation, Profit-Taking, Construction/Gambling Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.40% -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.2 -2.1 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.0 -3.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.8 -.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.73 +.29:  Growth Rate +13.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 384.32 +.78: Growth Rate +22.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.9 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +12.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 6.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% +4.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% -1.0 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 67.5%(-4.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 52.9%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +325 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +760 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my financial/tech/utility/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Construction -2.3% 2) Video Gaming -2.0% 3) Computer Services -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MRUS, TAC, IOT, DOCU, PLTR, CRS, RXST, TEM, CTAS, LIF, OMC, CMCSA, CRDO, NBIS, CAVA, RDW, RIOT, APP and AGIO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RVNC 2) ASO 3) XLI 4) WMB 5) BBAI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BIOA 2) AMD 3) HUMA 4) TMUS 5) ZETA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) SOXX 3) XRT 4) XLE 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume