Thursday, December 12, 2024

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -4.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 +1.5
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 33.9% of Issues Advancing, 63.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .84 -35.9%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$128.9M
  • 58 New 52-Week Highs, 51 New Lows
  • 61.5% (-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 45.0 -3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.7 +.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.5 -.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,475.3 -.14%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 52.0 (NEUTRAL) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.3 -4.5%
  • Vix 13.6 +.2%
  • Total Put/Call .68 -12.8%

Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • BREAKING: ActBlue was accepting foreign gift cards until September. This is ILLEGAL. The @HouseAdmin Committee will continue this important investigation into ActBlue next Congress. Our work here is just getting started. Wow, extremely illegal!
  • @BennnyJohnson
  • @Malcolm_fleX48
  • @RepMTG
  • @charliekirk11
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @wendyp4545
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @RenzTom
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @DC_Draino
  • @SenRickScott
  • @VigilantFox
  • @GDGB01
  • @realchasegeiser
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @EndWokeness
  • @realchasegeiser
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.3 +1.4%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.06%
  • S&P 500 futures -.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Technical Buying, Tech/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -3.5%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .50 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.9 +.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.1 +.07%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 -.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 10.9 -7.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 185.0 -8.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .77 -8.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.56 +38.0%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$117.2M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.8 -1.25%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 300.9 -.98%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 186 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.1 -1.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 148.7 -.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.7 +1.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 152.1 -1.5%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 103.8 +1.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 +.16%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.75 basis points unch.
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -25.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 130.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 644.0 -6.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 45.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.36% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.7 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.9 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.1 +.9
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +8.9% +.7 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.84 +.11:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.5 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 384.86 +.54: Growth Rate +22.7% unch., P/E 34.7 +.8
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.42 -9.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 10.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.6% -2.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.97% +3.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.86% +16.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 75.7%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 54.7%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +853 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -26 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my financial/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value unch.
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers -2.2% 2) Road & Rail -1.9% 3) Homebuilding -1.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • HSY, SBLK, SAIC, FRO, TEM, UNH, DUOL, NAMS, IONQ, NMM, CI, MTCH, METC, UBER, LYFT, AI, ARVN, ZIM, SOUN, SERV, BLCO, PLAY and ANAB
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ACI 2) RGTI 3) BHC 4) MTCH 5) SFIX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PLAY 2) VRA 3) QTTB 4) WBA 5) MTCH
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLV 2) SMH 3) VGT 4) KIE 5) XBI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +3.0% 2) Semis +2.7% 3) Oil Service +2.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PDCO, REVG, BYRN, PLAB, SEI, GME, CRK, GKOS, QDEL, MSTR, RBLX, SMWB, BKV, GEV, WWW, AOSL, FOUR, AVGO, QURE, PEN, ATXS, KGS, DBX, ASO, PPTA, GOOG, OWL, BMA, RIOT, NARI, PENN, MDB, TDW, CIEN, BTDR, TSLA, LOMA, TPG, ALK, SUPV, APP, CASY, PSO, TGS, OKTA, PWR, CRESY, CRM, SIRI and CRDO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SFIX 2) DASH 3) IP 4) ANAB 5) FBTC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SFIX 2) TSLA 3) RDDT 4) ASII 5) REVG
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLY 2) KRE 3) XLE 4) XLF 5) XRT
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CIEN)/.65
  • (LOVE)/-.35
After the Close: 
  • (AVGO)/1.39
  • (COST)/3.79
  • (RH)/2.65
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The PPI Final Demand MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Oct.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Oct.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 220K versus 224K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1878K versus 1871K prior.

12:00 pm EST

  • Household Change in New Worth for 3Q.

Upcoming Splits

  • (ETR) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB meeting, 30Y T-Bond auction, IEA Monthly report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Barclays Tech Conference, San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium, (FN) annual meeting, (FRO) annual meeting, (PZZA) investor meeting, (CHRW) investor day, (OLN) investor day, (MET) investor day, (UAA) investor meeting and the (WDFC) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST