Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 +1.5
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 33.9% of Issues Advancing, 63.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .84 -35.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$128.9M
  
• 58 New 52-Week Highs, 51 New Lows
• 61.5% (-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.7 +.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.5 -.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,475.3 -.14%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 52.0 (NEUTRAL) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 7.3 -4.5%
  
• Vix 13.6 +.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .68 -12.8%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• BREAKING: ActBlue was accepting foreign gift cards until September. This is ILLEGAL. The @HouseAdmin Committee will continue this important investigation into ActBlue next Congress. Our work here is just getting started. Wow, extremely illegal!

• @BennnyJohnson

• BREAKING: Leaked photo of disgraced Senator Mitch McConnell needing to be carted around by staff in a wheelchair after crippling health scares. McConnell, 82, has been hiding his condition from the public for years. We must pass term limits in America. (pic)

• @Malcolm_fleX48
  

• China's military is using drones disguise as birds, meanwhile our military is trying to find a new way to include 5 extra genders into the next required HR training. (video)

• @RepMTG

• The United States Postal Service just reported a $9.5 BILLION loss in FY24, adding to its approximately $100 BILLION in losses since 2007. This is what happens when government-run entities are bloated, mismanaged, and unaccountable. It’s time to demand real reform and stop wasting taxpayer dollars! Government efficiency is coming to Washington!!

• @charliekirk11

• CNN just lost in the ratings to…Food Network!! The news outlet finished in 17th place among all cable stations last week in primetime. It wasn’t like it was a slow news cycle either. There was the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, the manhunt for the killer, the drama surrounding President Trump’s cabinet picks, Joe Biden’s pardon of Hunter, and the shocking fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. This is devastating for the legacy cable news media. People are rejecting them and turning to resources like The Charlie Kirk Show, Bongino, Megyn Kelly, Joe Rogan, and War Room. And they’re coming to 𝕏 for real-time breaking news.
• There’s no way you honestly believe they found the United Healthcare CEO’s killer five days later & he’s still wearing the same exact clothes, has the murd3r weapon on him, & has a written manifesto in his pocket. Just chillin at McDonald’s with the weapon & manifesto.
  

• @LauraLoomer

• Did you know that there are assassin drones? What’s the likelihood that Iran and China are flying assassin drones over New Jersey to geo track so they can map out and extract tracking location to assassinate President Trump with an assassin drone while he’s golfing at his Bedminster club? What if it’s a dry run for assassinating him with a drone at Mar a Lago? Iran has already threatened to attack Mar a Lago and Chinese spies have been caught trying to break into Mar a Lago.
• What are the odds that the alleged shooter has one degree of Separation away from DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas?(pic)

• @wendyp4545

• DRONE UPDATE FROM US NORTHERN COMMAND: We have conducted a deliberate analysis of the events, in consultation with other military organizations and interagency partners... at this time we have not been requested to assist with these events." Nothing says that they're giving them safe passage over our air space more than not asking the Military to shoot them down.

• @WallStreetApes

• WOAH! We just figured out how Democrats got all the illegal Haitian and Venezuelan migrants into America, MASSIVE FRAUD. Rep Andy Biggs confronts Immigration Official about fraud taking place and she admits SHE KNEW about this: - The same social security number was used on at least 20 different CHNV supporter applications. - This HAPPENED 3200 TIMES. - CHNV (Is the processes for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans). - Nearly 2,000 times you had the same email address used on 20 different supporter applications.
• Democrat Senator Patty Murray is calling to block the confirmation of Robert F Kennedy Jr as Secretary of HHS, saying he’s a “anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist”. Wait until you hear Senator Patty Murray campaign payments: - $513,635 from pharmaceuticals. - $666,970 from health professionals. - $311,844 from insurance companies. - $198,376 from HMOs. Washington State Senator Patty Murray is directly profiting off Big Pharma using the American People as their lab rats for astronomical profits. She is paid off and corrupt. Senator Patty Murray does not represent her voters, she represents her Big Pharma donors. (video)
• Liberals have started putting up wanted posters for Health Insurance Company CEOs in New York City. Saying “Health care CEOs should not feel safe”, “Deny Defend Depose”, “Fight back”. The wanted posted for UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson has been marked off as completed. (video)
• The death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson has some strange coincidences. - UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was in the middle of a federal lawsuit for INSIDER TRADING and fraud. - Here he is saying he works with NANCY PELOSI to get grants. - Nancy Pelosi traded on inside information right BEFORE UnitedHealthcare had a huge data leak. - Nancy Pelosi bought Palo Alto shares right BEFORE United Healthcare announced their recent security breach. - Palo Alto Networks is a cybersecurity company partnered with UnitedHealth Group to secure their systems after a cyberattack. I’m sure these are all huge coincidences. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho
  

• We Live in Scary Times. (video)

• @RenzTom

• BREAKING: Biden extends the “emergency declaration” for COVID-19 to extend liability protections for the deadly mRNA COVID “vaccines”. The Biden Administration has extended the emergency declaration for COVID-19 through 2029 in an attempt to prevent liability for mRNA COVID “vaccine” manufacturers. It is very likely that @RobertKennedyJr will begin releasing information regarding the lack of safety and efficacy of these jabs and so lawsuits would likely follow. This last ditch attempt to save big pharma from liability for the chaos they’ve sown in so many lives is likely to be accompanies by other legal maneuvering designed to limit justice. Ask yourself - does ANYONE still think COVID is an emergency?

• @WallStreetMav

• The Democrats are going to have to forfeit millions of $$$ in illegal foreign donations. They are going to be in a huge hole financially when this gets resolved.

• @JackPosobiec

• BREAKING: Blacklisted Chinese military companies are collecting DNA data from AMERICAN CITIZENS! Tell Congress to pass the Biosecure Act and stop them. MUST ACT NOW!

• @DC_Draino
  

• You know what’s crazy? How Ruben Gallego got almost 100,000 more votes than Kamala in AZ Know what’s crazier? The RNC lawyer who worked in AZ during the election just got hired by Trump at the DOJ in the unit that oversees election integrity. Get ready for @pnjaban justice.
• Remember when the very unpopular Kamala got record ActBlue donations and we said it was due to foreign money laundering? And media said we were conspiracy theorists? Turns out we were right…once again.

• @SenRickScott

• BEWARE: Reports show garlic in Communist China is being grown in human sewage, then bleached in abhorrent conditions involving slave & child labor. I'm demanding the USDA, USTR & ILAB investigate the safety & ethics of putting it in our grocery stores.

• @VigilantFox
  

• Dr. McCullough Delivers Message All Parents Need to Hear. “This childhood vaccine schedule is not what we thought... I’m telling you, in total, it doesn’t look good.” The 1986 Vaccine Injury Act even admits vaccines come with “unavoidable harms.” Five separate studies now show that “if children go natural, no vaccines whatsoever, they have the best outcomes.” “When I was a kid, the rate of autism was one in 10,000. Now it’s one in 36,” @P_McCulloughMD explained. “And there’s about 200 published manuscripts showing it’s immune system dysregulation.” (video)

• @GDGB01
  

• BREAKING: Westminster is completely gridlocked with tractors as far as the eye can see. What an iconic image. (pic)

• @realchasegeiser

• BREAKING: Newly Discovered Connection Between Nancy Pelosi & Luigi Mangione Raises Questions In UnitedHealth CEO Murder Investigation Key Points.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Nancy Pelosi and her brother, Thomas D'Alesandro III, are connected to Luigi Mangione, the murder suspect in the death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, through his grandfather, Nicholas Mangione. In a 1989 Washington Post article, D'Alesandro, the former mayor of Baltimore, defended Nicholas Mangione’s reputation, calling him “big-hearted” despite investigations into human rights violations and regulatory shortcuts tied to his business practices. This becomes even more interesting because Nancy Pelosi made a suspicious trade the same day UnitedHealth had a cyberattack, and the company she traded in was chosen to investigate the breach.

• @EndWokeness

• Isn't it odd how Kamala's biggest fans were all very connected to Diddy? (pic)

• @realchasegeiser

• To any leftist saying that BioLabs in Ukraine aren’t real, here’s a video from 4 years ago from the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv bragging about them. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,016,047 Reports(+2,606 from prior report) Through October 25, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.25 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.3 +1.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.06%

• S&P 500 futures -.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Technical Buying, Tech/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -3.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .50 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.9 +.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.1 +.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 -.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 10.9 -7.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 185.0 -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -8.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.56 +38.0%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$117.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.8 -1.25%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 300.9 -.98%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 186 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.1 -1.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 148.7 -.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.7 +1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 152.1 -1.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 103.8 +1.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 +.16%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.75 basis points unch.
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -25.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 130.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 644.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 45.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.36% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.7 -.6 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.9 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.1 +.9
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +8.9% +.7 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.84 +.11:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.5 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 384.86 +.54: Growth Rate +22.7% unch., P/E 34.7 +.8
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.42 -9.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 10.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.6% -2.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.97% +3.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.86% +16.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 75.7%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 54.7%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +853 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -26 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my financial/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value unch.
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -2.2% 2) Road & Rail -1.9% 3) Homebuilding -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HSY, SBLK, SAIC, FRO, TEM, UNH, DUOL, NAMS, IONQ, NMM, CI, MTCH, METC, UBER, LYFT, AI, ARVN, ZIM, SOUN, SERV, BLCO, PLAY and ANAB
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ACI 2) RGTI 3) BHC 4) MTCH 5) SFIX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PLAY 2) VRA 3) QTTB 4) WBA 5) MTCH
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) SMH 3) VGT 4) KIE 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +3.0% 2) Semis +2.7% 3) Oil Service +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PDCO, REVG, BYRN, PLAB, SEI, GME, CRK, GKOS, QDEL, MSTR, RBLX, SMWB, BKV, GEV, WWW, AOSL, FOUR, AVGO, QURE, PEN, ATXS, KGS, DBX, ASO, PPTA, GOOG, OWL, BMA, RIOT, NARI, PENN, MDB, TDW, CIEN, BTDR, TSLA, LOMA, TPG, ALK, SUPV, APP, CASY, PSO, TGS, OKTA, PWR, CRESY, CRM, SIRI and CRDO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SFIX 2) DASH 3) IP 4) ANAB 5) FBTC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SFIX 2) TSLA 3) RDDT 4) ASII 5) REVG
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) KRE 3) XLE 4) XLF 5) XRT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CIEN)/.65
• (LOVE)/-.35
  

After the Close: 

• (AVGO)/1.39
• (COST)/3.79
• (RH)/2.65
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The PPI Final Demand MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Oct.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Oct.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 220K versus 224K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1878K versus 1871K prior.
  

12:00 pm EST

• Household Change in New Worth for 3Q.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (ETR) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB meeting, 30Y T-Bond auction, IEA Monthly report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Barclays Tech Conference, San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium, (FN) annual meeting, (FRO) annual meeting, (PZZA) investor meeting, (CHRW) investor day, (OLN) investor day, (MET) investor day, (UAA) investor meeting and the (WDFC) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST