Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AYI)/3.90
• (ACI)/.66
• (ANGO)/-.11
• (HELE)/2.59
• (MSM)/.73
• (SMPL)/.46
  

After the Close: 

• (GBX)/1.16
• (JEF)/.97
• (PSMT)/1.31
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Dec. is estimated to fall to 139K versus 146K in Nov.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 215K versus 211K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1860K versus 1844K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in Oct.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -939,500 barrels versus a -1,178,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +591,000 barrels versus a +7,717,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +496,500 barrels versus a +6,406,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.4% versus a +.2% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• FOMC Dec. 18 Meeting Minutes.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Nov. is estimated to fall to $10.5B versus $19.24B in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Weller speaking, 10Y T-note auction, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Jan., weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, CES, Needham growth conference, (LNN) annual meeting, (ANGO) investor meeting and the BHF Forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +39.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 28.3 +8.1
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 34.2% of Issues Advancing, 63.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .52 -37.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$5.5M
  
• 36 New 52-Week Highs, 43 New Lows
• 52.9% (-.09%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.4 +3.6
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.9 +.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 253.6 -.27%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,751.9 -1.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 38.0 (FEAR) +8.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.9 +12.9%
  
• Vix 17.5 +9.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .86 +6.2%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.75 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.5 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.2 +1.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.4 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.46%.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Rising Productivity Expectations, Diminished US Terrorism Fears, Tech/Airline Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.52%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.3 euros/megawatt-hour -4.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.4 -3.3 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.3 +9.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .1 +1.6 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.67 +.38:  Growth Rate +14.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 393.97 +.59: Growth Rate +25.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 34.5 +.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +12.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.50 +11.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 34.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.7% -1.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 54.5% (+2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 44.3%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +425 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -41 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APOG)/1.10
• (LNN)/1.39
• (rpm)/1.34

After the Close: 

• (AIR)/.85
• (AZZ)/1.26
• (CALM)/4.05
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Nov. is estimated at -$78.3B versus -$73.8B in Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for Nov. is estimated to rise to 7745K versus 7744K in Oct.
• The ISM Services Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 53.5 versus 52.1 in Nov.
• ISM Services Prices Paid for Dec. is estimated to fall to 57.5 versus 58.2 in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, 3Y T-note auction, (VST) CEO conference, (AES) CEO conference and the Goldman Energy/Cleantech/Utilities conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• South Korean Corruption Watchdog Asks Police to Arrest Yoon. 
• UK Business Confidence Sinks to Lowest Since Truss Mini-Budget, Survey Shows. 
• Italy Plans $1.6 Billion SpaceX Telecom Security Services Deal.
• Asian Currencies Hit Two-Decade Low, Stocks Mixed. 
  
• Oil Rises for Sixth Day as Wider Market Optimism Fuels Bulls.
• Gold Holds Decline After Fed Officials Express Inflation Conc.ern.
• Trader Who Made Billions in 2008 Returns to Bet on Market Swings.
• Paychex Is Said to Be in Talks to Buy Smaller Rival Paycor.
• Trump’s Major Legislative Agenda Will Pass by May, Johnson Says. 
• Fintechs Ramp Up Advertising Spending to Appeal to Wider Market
• US Exceptionalism Will Propel Stocks, Dollar in 2025: MLIV Pulse.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge: 

• FBI: Investigation Into New Orleans Terror Suspect "Crossed State & International Borders".
• US 'Quietly' Sent Heavy Weapons To Ukraine Well Before Invasion Started, Blinken Reveals.
• House Report Discloses New Information On Unsolved J6 Pipe Bomber.
• All US Military Bases Enact "Heightened Security Measures" After Terror Attacks.
• Meet Joel Salatin, A Leader In Regenerative Agriculture And Self-Described 'Lunatic Farmer'.
• Fast and Furious: Hedge Funds Dump Size, Tech's Bounce Fuels Frustration.
• Zelensky Believes Trump Is 'Capable Of Stopping Putin'.
• The Importance Of Persistence.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "All Ingredients Sourced Locally": From Sidewalk To NYC Halal Food Truck.
• If Biden Wanted To Leave An Easter Egg For Trump, The Dock Workers' Deal Ending On January 15th Seems Like A Nasty One.
• Syria's New Justice Minister 'Oversaw Execution Of Women For Prostitution'.
• "Liquid Gold": How Bovine Colostrum Is Revolutionizing Gut-Health, Immunity, Athletic Performance, And Inflammation Management.
• Biden To Keep US Flags At Half-Staff During Trump's Inauguration, White House Says.
• Manhattan 'Congestion Pricing' Starts Today.
• Biden To Approve Massive $8BN Weapons Sale To Israel Before Leaving Office.
• Global Optimism Ticks Up From Last Year.
• Trump's Plan To End Currency War 3.0.
• California Governor Orders Investigation Into Ultra-Processed Foods.
• 44 Statistics From 2024 That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe.
• EU Could Establish Asylum 'Return Hubs' In Third Countries By March, Swedish PM Says.
• On China's Massive Hacking Campaign Targeting The US.
• In The Jan 6 Killing Of Ashli Babbitt, A Leftist Double-Standard On Cop Misconduct.
• On The March, School Choice Takes Its Fight From Red, Right To Blue. 
• These Were The Most Viewed Wikipedia Pages In 2024.
• Georgia Proves It: Stable Electricity Markets Attract Business And Growth.

Wall Street Journal:

• A Weakened Iran Prepares to Face Trump 2.0.
• How Trump’s Tech Picks Orbit Elon Musk.
• House and Senate Split on How to Deliver for Trump.
• How Chinese Hackers Graduated From Clumsy Corporate Thieves to Military Weapons.
• Blinken Fesses Up on Biden and Hamas. 
• A Tax-Cutting New Year in the States.
• Centerview Partners Considers a Deal of Its Own After Record Year.
• Forklifts Hurt Thousands of Workers Each Year. Factories Are Seeking Alternatives.
• There’s a Traffic Jam Forming at U.S. Rocket Launchpads.
• Global Mining’s Dangerous New Reality: Guns, Hostages, Arrests.

CNBC:  

• Major winter storm threatens much of the U.S. with intense cold, snow and ice.
• Biden signs bill to increase Social Security benefits for millions of public workers.
• Amazon licenses Melania Trump documentary, as Bezos cozies up to president-elect.
• Driving into Manhattan? That’ll cost you, as new congestion toll starts Sunday. 
• Top Wall Street analysts pick these dividend stocks for 2025.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Stock market manages strong start to 2025. But watch for these potential pitfalls.
• What to expect in 2025 if economist forecasts are as bad as usual.
• Why DraftKings is betting on a subscription service that gives members improved odds.

NewsMax:

• Biden National Security Team Concedes China Can Shut Down Ports, Power Grid.
• Gordon Chang to Newsmax: China Could Take Down 'Everything We Have'.
• Speaker Johnson Eyes Swift Passage of Trump Mega-Bill.
• Italy's Meloni Visits Trump in Florida.
• Dick Morris: Trump Will Focus Early on Energy.

Fox News:

• Bourbon Street psycho cased kill zone, then made 'unique' mistake that spared lives, FBI reveals.
• Schumer confronted with old clip of himself declaring Biden's decline 'right-wing propaganda'.
• Massive recall hits over-the-counter medicine sold at Costco.
• Biden admin ripped for giving 9/11 masterminds iron-clad sweetheart deal.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• HORROR: New Orleans Prosecutor Kills Himself Just Days After Terror Attack Hits the City.
• WOW! NBC’s Kristen Welker Calls Out Schumer For Lying About Biden’s Cognitive Decline (VIDEO).
• House Intel Chair Mike Turner Confirms ISIS-Linked Terrorists Actively Operating Inside the U.S., Plotting Attacks on Americans.
• Federal Court Filing Confirms Leak of SCOTUS Draft Ruling on Roe v Wade Inspired Assassination Attempt of Justice Kavanaugh.
• “Beef Apocalypse” – Why Shelf-Stable Beef Could Be Extremely Valuable in the Near Future.
• Another Myth Busted: Latest Report Reveals 30 Year Drop in Hurricane Frequency and Power.
• Fox News Reigns Supreme: They’ve Obliterated CNN and MSNBC … Combined.
• 40 Percent of Murders in USA Take Place In Soros-Backed Districts.
• Schumer Blames Voters For Kamala Harris’s Crushing Election Loss (VIDEO).
• Reminder: Joe Biden Gave Presidential Medal of Freedom to George Soros – A Man Who Admitted Having “No Remorse” for Being Nazi Collaborator and Stealing Property from Jews Going to Nazi Death Camps (VIDEO).
• FDA-Led Peer-Reviewed Study by High School Students Uncovers Alarming DNA Contamination in Pfizer’s mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine at FDA’s Own Lab.
• ‘Respiratory Virus’ Allegedly Overwhelming Chinese Hospitals is Nothing More Than a Common Cold.
• CNN’s Scott Jennings Torches New York Democrats Over Trump Lawfare: ‘Abused Criminal Justice System to Create a Talking Point’ (VIDEO).
• OF COURSE: Climate Change Warrior Kathy Hochul Has Spent More Than $400K on Private Jets.
• Illegal Alien Previously Charged with Attempted Murder Stabs 86-Year-Old Man at Fred Meyer Grocery Store in ‘Sanctuary State’ of Oregon.
• Claudine Gay Still a Harvard Professor One Year After Resigning.

4th PSYOP Group:

• Ghosts in the Machine. (video)
  
• Ghosts in the Machine 2. (video)

DailyMail.com:

• Inside US Army's PSYOP unit that has uncomfortable ties to Cybertruck bomber and New Orleans terrorist.

Psywarrior.com

• The 4th Psychological Operations Group (POG) (Airborne), or 8th PSYOP (A), at Fort Bragg, NC, is one of only two active Army Psychological Operations Groups. The mission of the 4th Psychological Operations Group (Airborne) is to deploy anywhere in the world on short notice, and plan, develop, and conduct Civil Affairs and Psychological operations in support of Unified Commanders, coalition forces, or other government agencies as directed by the National Command Authority. Psychological operations are a vital part of the broad range of U.S. political, military, economic and ideological activities used by the U.S. government to secure national objectives.
  

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• BBC SHIELDED ONE OF BRITAIN’S WORST PEDOPHILES: JIMMY SAVILE. Jimmy Savile, once a BBC icon, was revealed as one of the UK’s worst pedophiles. Police investigations uncovered abuse spanning 4 decades, with over 200 victims and crimes committed in BBC studios, hospitals, and care homes. The BBC ignored mounting allegations for years, shielding Savile despite internal rumors. Jimmy Saville, longtime BBC employee, raped over 400 children while being paid millions by the BBC.

• @MarioNawful
  

• THESE ARE THE 158 DEMOCRATS WHO VOTED AGAINST DEPORTING SEX OFFENDERS.

• @GenFlynn

• RAPE, RAPE and then RAPE again and again and again. The United States should cease its “special relationship” with the United Kingdom until this issue is corrected. Keir Starmer is a disgrace as a prime minister in an historically great country.

• @BillAckman

• Do I have this straight? For more than two decades, hundreds of thousands of young British girls have been gang raped by members of principally one ethnic group. Efforts to stop these egregious acts have been curtailed by British government leaders and politicians, the media, and others because of concerns about prosecutorial efforts and media exposure of these crimes appearing racist, and/or due to the risk of loss of political support from members of this ethnic group.

• @JimFergusonUK
  

• "UFOs Over Washington, DC: Are We on the Brink of First Contact or a Massive Deception?" Last night, mysterious UFOs were spotted over Washington, DC, leaving witnesses baffled. Reports are surging, and these unexplained craft defy all known technology and logic. Could this be the beginning of first contact? Or are we staring down the barrel of a global deception unlike anything we’ve seen before? (video)

• @EndWokeness

• U-Haul tracked the number of people moving into every state in 2024: Top Five: #1 - SC #2 - TX #3 - NC #4 - FL #5 - TN. Bottom Five: #46 - PA #47 - NY #48 - NJ #49 - MA #50 - CA (5th year in a row).
  

• @MAGAResource
  

• JUST IN: Former Intelligence Officer Accuses US Officials Of Treason Over Using COVID To Hurt Trump. In a shocking revelation, Dr. Andrew Huff, a former intelligence official, claims that the timeline of the coronavirus outbreak was manipulated to politically sabotage then-President Donald Trump. Huff asserts that senior U.S. officials knew about the spread of the virus in China as early as October 2019, significantly ahead of public disclosures. He accuses these officials of treason, suggesting that the delay in informing Trump was deliberate to hinder his administration's response. Moreover, Huff alleges that the biotechnology behind the virus was developed in the U.S. before being exported to China, further complicating the narrative.

• @TonySeruga

• After extensive cell phone, laptop, and vehicle GPS data analysis, going back 4 years, Ryan Wesley Routh visited Fort Bragg 147 times, staying overnight on 29 occasions.

• @DschlopesIsBack

• BREAKING: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be resigning within the next few days. This is FANTASTIC news!! (pic)

• @WallStreetApes

• Joe Biden awarded George Soros the Presidential Medal of Freedom. The Prime Minister of Hungary literally exposed the document proving George Soros is behind the global illegal migrant invasion. At least 106 American citizens have been murdered by the illegals Soros imported since Joe Biden took office. (video)

• @ClayTravis

• Here is @espn “pausing in solidarity” with people angry about the “don’t say gay bill.” They shared a moment of silence for this, but couldn’t share the moment of silence for the terror victims in New Orleans on air. Absolutely indefensible. (video)
  

• @bennyjohnson
  

• A guy shoots Trump in the head live at a rally “protected” by the Secret Service - No manifesto - No cell data - No texts - No emails - No interviews of parents - No footage of his home - No background - No accomplices This is the real cover-up.

• @IanCarrollShow

• Remember, they still haven't cracked this kid's phone. Yet they are falling over themselves to tell you all about the Vegas cybertruck bomber and giving a random influencer an all access pass to the home of the New Orleans attacker... Weird...

• @catturd2
  

• They’re eating the dogs. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating the pigeons. (video)
  

• @WallStreetApes
  

• Official testimony FBI Agent phone records reveal “50,000 text messages” that contain messages like “F Trump, Stop Trump, Impeach Trump”. I think we figured out why no progress has been made on the Donald Trump assassination attempt. (video)
  

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,021,130 Reports(+5,083 from prior report) Through November 29th, 2024.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 -2.0 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 63.75 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.6 +.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.6 +.7%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.20%.
• S&P 500 futures -.12%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.