Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -5.0% 2) Oil Service -2.4% 3) Steel -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EOLS, WMG, CEG, PCG, XMTR, ACLX, KRP, TMDX, VRNA, FORM, BTDR, PSIX, ON, KLG, CNTA, MRNA, HSAI, INMD, BBW, JANX, RCAT, MCY, PONY, NN, EDN, SLP, IRBT, SSTK, QURE, SERV, ENVX, SERV, SEDG, EIX, MBLY, OUST, AVXL, SOUN, CRNC, SKYT, ATOM, ARQQ, IONQ, QUBT and RGTI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EBAY 2) PCG 3) IVZ 4) ARKG 5) HOG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) QBTS 2) QUBT 3) RGTI 4) IONQ 5) EIX
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLY 3) ARKK 4) IGV 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment +1.9% 2) Gold & Silver +1.9% 3) Homebuilding +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VIR, ANGO, CPRX, COLL, ADTN, EBAY, AIR, ROKU, PHR, PAA, TASK, CRK, PAGP, CART, IAS, BSX, HALO, MSM, MDT, DV, GEHC, KGC, AMPH, NVEE, GMED, AORT and ENOV
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MATV 2) PGR 3) EBAY 4) MA 5) SLS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SILO 2) SANA 3) VIR 4) NUS 5) LFCR
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) SOXX 3) XLK 4) MAGS 5) CONY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (STZ)/3.32
• (DAL)/1.76
• (TLRY)/-.03
• (WBA)/.38
  

After the Close: 

• (WDFC)/1.28

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Dec. is estimated at 165K versus 227K in Nov.
• The Unemployment Rate for Dec. is estimated at 4.2% versus 4.2% in Nov.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for January is estimated at 74.0 versus 74.0 in Dec.
• Univ. of Mich.  1Y Inflation Expectations for Jan. is estimated to rise +2.8% versus a +2.8% gain in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Harker speaking, Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Dec., 30T T-Bond auction, supreme court TikTok hearing and the (ZS) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Friday(US equity markets closed on Thursday).

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +24.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 18.9 -9.4
  
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 27.2% of Issues Advancing, 70.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.22 +110.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$279.0M
  
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 114 New Lows
• 52.9% (-.09%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.8 -4.6
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.5 +2.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 254.4 +.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,743.5 +.17%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 32.0 (FEAR) -6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 16.6 +16.5%
  
• Vix 18.0 +1.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .98 +27.3%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.75 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.1 +.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 -1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.30%.

• S&P 500 futures +.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Inflation Concerns, Increasing Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.87 -.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.47 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.7 +5.3 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.2 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.5 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.80 +.13:  Growth Rate +14.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 -.4
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 394.27 +.30: Growth Rate +25.7% unch., P/E 33.8 -.8
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.43 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 38.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.5% -.2 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 60.9% (+4.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 51.4%(+5.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -273 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +95 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long