Wednesday, January 08, 2025

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -5.0% 2) Oil Service -2.4% 3) Steel -1.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • EOLS, WMG, CEG, PCG, XMTR, ACLX, KRP, TMDX, VRNA, FORM, BTDR, PSIX, ON, KLG, CNTA, MRNA, HSAI, INMD, BBW, JANX, RCAT, MCY, PONY, NN, EDN, SLP, IRBT, SSTK, QURE, SERV, ENVX, SERV, SEDG, EIX, MBLY, OUST, AVXL, SOUN, CRNC, SKYT, ATOM, ARQQ, IONQ, QUBT and RGTI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EBAY 2) PCG 3) IVZ 4) ARKG 5) HOG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) QBTS 2) QUBT 3) RGTI 4) IONQ 5) EIX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) XLY 3) ARKK 4) IGV 5) SMH

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Medical Equipment +1.9% 2) Gold & Silver +1.9% 3) Homebuilding +1.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VIR, ANGO, CPRX, COLL, ADTN, EBAY, AIR, ROKU, PHR, PAA, TASK, CRK, PAGP, CART, IAS, BSX, HALO, MSM, MDT, DV, GEHC, KGC, AMPH, NVEE, GMED, AORT and ENOV
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MATV 2) PGR 3) EBAY 4) MA 5) SLS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SILO 2) SANA 3) VIR 4) NUS 5) LFCR
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLV 2) SOXX 3) XLK 4) MAGS 5) CONY
Charts:

Friday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (STZ)/3.32
  • (DAL)/1.76
  • (TLRY)/-.03
  • (WBA)/.38
After the Close: 
  • (WDFC)/1.28
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Dec. is estimated at 165K versus 227K in Nov.
  • The Unemployment Rate for Dec. is estimated at 4.2% versus 4.2% in Nov.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.

10:00 am EST

  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for January is estimated at 74.0 versus 74.0 in Dec.
  • Univ. of Mich.  1Y Inflation Expectations for Jan. is estimated to rise +2.8% versus a +2.8% gain in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Harker speaking, Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Dec., 30T T-Bond auction, supreme court TikTok hearing and the (ZS) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Friday(US equity markets closed on Thursday).
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +24.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 18.9 -9.4
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 27.2% of Issues Advancing, 70.5% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.22 +110.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$279.0M
  • 16 New 52-Week Highs, 114 New Lows
  • 52.9% (-.09%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 38.8 -4.6
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.5 +2.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 254.4 +.5%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,743.5 +.17%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 32.0 (FEAR) -6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 16.6 +16.5%
  • Vix 18.0 +1.0%
  • Total Put/Call .98 +27.3%

Tuesday, January 07, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.75 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.1 +.6%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 -1.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.30%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Inflation Concerns, Increasing Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.87 -.02%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.47 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.7 +5.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.2 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.5 -.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.80 +.13:  Growth Rate +14.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 -.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 394.27 +.30: Growth Rate +25.7% unch., P/E 33.8 -.8
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.43 -7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 38.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.5% -.2 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +5.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 60.9% (+4.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 51.4%(+5.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -273 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +95 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long