Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on China's Trade War Escalation, Global Growth Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Weakness

  Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 49.8 +6.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 2.3 -73.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 39.5 +.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.5 -.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.8 -.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.4 +6.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 -7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.17 -4.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.66 +253.1%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$165.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.1 +.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 535.6 +1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 343.0 +34.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.3 -3.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 197.1 -5.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 basis points -6.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.2 -4.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 223.0 -.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 112.77 -1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.1 -.4%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -28.75 basis points -6.0 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.5 basis points +7.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +3.25 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 637.0 +11.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 64.0 +3.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.34 -.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% +3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.2 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.7 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.2 -.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.8 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +4.1% -3.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.0 -.43:  Growth Rate +13.2% -.2 percentage point, P/E 18.6 +.6
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.54% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.52 -.54: Growth Rate +21.0% -.2 percentage point, P/E 26.0 +1.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.08 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .14 -57.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) +10.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.7% -5.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 +4.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 50.0% (-11.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 49.8%(-7.9 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -250 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -385 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -192 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took profits in my financial sector longs
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -2.6% 2) Alt Energy -2.4% 3) Biotech -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SOBO, VIPS, PDD, NE, GNK, LGIH, TX, SLNO, INGM, DNTH, AA, PCVX, ONON, PCVX, VTLE, AR, BABA, LEVI, VAL, ZTO, LMND, SQM, PRAA, BZ, RPM, GBX, SOC, IMAX, LI, MUR, RKT, RH, IRON, SBLK, W, JKS, ALB, MNSO, KALV and DQ

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AR 2) GPN 3) LEVI 4) LQD 5) KC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AA 2) GERN 3) CVRX4) SMTC 5) VIRT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLE 3) XLY 4) XLC 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +3.4% 2) Defense +3.4% 3) Insurance +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PCRX, CNR, CVNA, LOCO, BTU, ALHC, HUM, RYTM, HNRG, HCC, LOAR, PDI, TBBK, PDI, CVS, BWXT, AVGO, PCN, CCL, MRVL, CYBR, CUK, SATS, UNH, APP, PLTR, ANET, EIC, SATS, ARM, MELI, DB, RIVN, BA, SRAD, ARLP, PLMR, RBRK, REVG, BSTZ, NCLH, GOF, NVDA, PDO, NBXG, AMAT, SMFG, PAXS, SUPV, ANGI, SBGI, ETY, MRX, AAMI, LNG, IOT, JHG, PANW, GE, CSQ, BBAR, RA, DRVN, MUFG, BGB, PTY, GHY and ECAT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LVS 2) HOG 3) PRMW 4) PRMW 5) GPN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AGL 2) CRMD 3) PCRX 4) HUM 5) RYTM

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLF 3) SOXX 4) XRT 5) XOP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DAL)/.38
• (NEOG)/-.02
• (SMPL)/.40
  

After the Close: 

• (STZ)/2.28
• (PSMT)/1.44
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Jan.
• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a -1.3% decline in Jan.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,748,570 barrels versus a +6,165,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,082,290 barrels versus a -1,551,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +248,430 barrels versus a +264,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.63% versus a -1.0% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• March 19 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, USTR's Jamieson Greer's testimony to House, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for April, (SNPS) annual meeting and the (WMT) investment community meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +39.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.0 +3.4
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 90.4% of Issues Advancing, 8.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.01 +114.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$314.0M
  
• 1 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
• 20.4% (+17.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 33.5 +13.1

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 49.5 +25.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 226.3 +1.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,517.7 +1.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 8.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +4.0
• 1-Day Vix 39.1 -41.3%
  
• Vix 37.7 -19.7%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.11 -9.0%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• US Treasury Holds Closed-Door Tariff Talks With Asean Officials. 
• Chinese Shipping Earnings Face ‘Harder-Than-Expected’ Tariff Hit as Recession Risks Rise.
• PBOC Vows Funding Support to Sovereign Fund to Stabilize Market.
• Canada Says China Pushed Carney Stories Amid Meddling Fears.
• Australia Consumer Sentiment Slumps 6% on Trump Tariff Turmoil.
• Asian Stocks Bounce Back After Worst Day on Record.
• Oil Edges Higher After Three-Day Rout With Trade War in Focus. 
• Comex Copper Enters Bear Market as Tariffs Stoke Recession Fear.
• Trump, Hegseth Tout $1 Trillion US Defense Budget.
• Fed’s Goolsbee Says Firms Fear Tariff-Driven Inflation Surge. 
• Marvell Gains on Deal to Sell Unit to Infineon for $2.5 Billion.
• Dollar Stores a Potential Bright Spot in Trade Wars, Citi Says
• Broadcom to Buy Back $10 Billion in Shares Following Stock Slide. 
• Trump’s Tariff Threat Sparks Race to Find US Drug Manufacturers.
• US Boosts Medicare Payments to Insurers by Over $25 Billion.

Zerohedge: 

• Second US Carrier Steams Through Indian Ocean To Join Yemen War .
• Honduran Illegal Alien Charged With Stealing 40 Firearms From Tennessee Gun Store.
• Supreme Court Sides With Trump Over Venezuelan Deportations, But Requires Due Process For Each Case.
• US Conference Of Catholic Bishops Ends Refugee Program After USAID Funding Cut.
• How Lies From The Biden Administration Expanded The Ukraine War.
• The Poverty Of The Criticism Of Trump's Agenda.
• Trump Stuns By Saying US Is In 'Direct' Nuclear Talks With Iran.
• Trump Tells Bibi He Might Not Reduce Tariffs On Israel: 'We Give You $4BN A Year'.
• US stocks were volatile amid tariff-related headlines and 'fake news' - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Update On Hedge Fund Performance After The US Close.
• Title IX And Trump 2.0: No More Radicalism Masquerading As Civil Rights.
• 6-Sigma Miss In Consumer Credit Confirms US Consumer Is Finally Down And Out.
• Volatile trade as markets digest global trade woes - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Farewell, Fugazy!
• "I'm Turning Bullish": Goldman's Head Of Risk Says "Time To Start Scaling In" 
• Not Funny... This DEI 'Sensitivity Training' Video Is Absolutely Hilarious...
• Trump Officials Debate Exporter Tax Credit As Tariff Fallout Mounts: Leaks.

The Wall Stree Journal:

• Trump Turns Screws on China, Leaves Door Open to Deals With Other Countries.
• Stocks Swing Wildly as Trump Stands Firm on Tariffs.
• Canada’s Economy Is Starting to Crack Under Pressure.
• U.S. and Iran to Hold High-Stakes Nuclear Talks.
• How Far Does the Market Have to Fall Before It’s Time to Buy? 
• Apple Users Rush to Upgrade iPhones Ahead of Potential Tariffs-Related Price Hikes.
• Shopify Says No New Hires Unless AI Can’t Do the Job.
• Trump, Unbowed, Is Enacting Change on Scale Rarely Seen Before. 
• The China Foe Storming State Capitols.

CNBC:

• Beijing’s strong countertariffs raise the specter of an intense trade war.
• GM reveals Corvette EV concept car as it reconfirms commitment to Europe.
• Apple’s highest-end iPhone could see $350 price hike in U.S. on Trump tariffs, analyst predicts.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CVS Health, Broadcom, Humana and more. 
• Hedge funds pile up record short bets against stocks as traders go into ‘self-protection mode’.

MarketWatch.com:

• UnitedHealth, Humana and other health-insurance stocks are surging after this ‘big win’ .
• A Salesforce board member bought $1 million in stock near recent lows. He has a good track record.
• 5 things that make this stock-market selloff truly unusual.
• America’s richest banker says Trump is on the right track with ‘shock-and-awe’ tariffs.
• Bitcoin could crash below key support level as resilience seems short-lived.
• Levi’s needs to ‘see where the dust settles’ on tariffs, but expects ‘minimal’ near-term effect.

Fox News:

• Harris' team kept secret list of Republican judges to call up in the event Biden died in office.
• Treasury secretary gives update on countries looking to negotiate Trump tariffs.
• Blue state Dems ram abortion, transgender bills through on limited Sunday session debate.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: HUGE WIN: Supreme Court Vacates Judge Boasberg’s Orders Barring Trump From Deporting Venezuelan Gang Members Under Alien Enemies Act .
• SHOCK POLL: Majority of Left-of-Center Americans Now Justify a Trump Assassination.
• Another Jim Cramer Prediction on “Black Monday” Style Wall Street Crash Over Trump’s Tariffs Goes Up in Smoke (VIDEO).
• Florida Authorities Bust Massive Global Child Pornography Ring — Over 1M Videos Seized, Including Infants Sexually Assaulted.
• Green Energy Exec and Federal Bureaucrat Arrested For Vandalizing Multiple Tesla Vehicles on Capitol Hill — Police Investigating Possible ‘Hate Crimes’.
• WHOA! Senator Schmitt Floats Judge Boasberg May Have Been TIPPED OFF to Venezuelan Gang Member Deportation Case (VIDEO).
• Fundraiser Brings in Over $160,000 for Teen Track Star Austin Metcalf’s KILLER.
• Michelle Obama’s New Podcast is a Total Flop – Here’s Where It Ranks on the Streaming Charts.

The Epoch Times:

• Conrad Black: Trump’s Tariff Policy Is in Part a Containment Strategy to Deal With the China Threat.
• US Space Chief Warns Congress of China’s Space Capabilities in Potential Indo–Pacific War
• Beijing Attempting to Influence Chinese-Canadians on Mark Carney, Election Watchdog Says

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Any country that can’t manufacture its own drones will be a vassal state.
• ELECTION INTEGRITY: The SSA must update its HAVV voter registration verification system to include the citizenship status of SSN holders. Currently, states depend on voters to self-attest their citizenship when registering with the last four digits of their SSNs—we're expected to take their word for it. (pic)

• @WallStreetApes

• Kevin O'Leary EXPERTLY educates a liberal reporter on Tariffs. This is the most educational and well put together explanation of what Donald Trump is doing with tariffs I’ve seen. If you have any questions on tariffs, watch this discussion, you’ll be an expert: (video)
• This post got 38k+ Likes in under 48 hours. There is OVERWHELMING demand for politicians to be held accountable for laundering our money. Elon Musk “For fake NGOs, I think there needs to be a number of arrests in that regard as well, because these are fake charities where mostly Democrats. — I want to be clear, there's sometimes a little bit of Republican in there, because they sometimes throw the Republicans a bone to say, hey, be quiet about this. So that's where you start getting the uniparty thing going on. But it is overwhelmingly to Democrats, and they give these billions of dollars to NGOs run by Democrats that then go through a whole network of additional NGOs. It's a giant money laundering scheme. Really, at this point, I think the word NGO and money laundering are almost synonymous.”
  

• @DC_Draino  

• Lowe’s will be closing all 1,700 of its stores for an entire day on April 20. Why? Because it’s Easter, the holiest day in Christianity, and they want all of their employees to spend that day with family. Bravo Lowe’s.
• While this Supreme Court victory for Trump allowing him to deport cartels is huge, it was only a 5-4 decision. Guess who joined the 3 liberal Justices to keep cartels here in America? Amy Coney Barrett. (video)

• @KanekoaTheGreat

• SHOCKING: Senator @ChuckSchumer passionately advocates for a 27.5% tariff on China in 2005! "It says to the Chinese that their unfair trade policies have got to end. The Chinese have enjoyed a yuge trade surplus with the U.S. Every year it gets larger and larger." "Much of that trade surplus is because the Chinese don't play fair. They don't let our goods into their country. I can tell you company after company in New York who cannot sell goods in China or can only sell them under impossible conditions." "The Chinese make no effort to prevent the ripping off of our intellectual property. These are our crown jewels. The thinking. The great creativity. The great entrepreneurialness of the American business community is just taken, and they shrug their shoulders." (video)

• @NicoleShanahan

• Based on what I’m seeing and hearing from whistleblowers, there’s a very real possibility that the biggest contributor to our atmospheric pollution (or PPM which is used to assess climate change) isn’t your fireplace or your car—it’s the lingering effect of geoengineering and stratospheric projects. These programs appear to be pumping far more into our skies than anything coming from a modern fuel-injected engine or even today’s coal burning plants, which can run with highly advanced filtration systems.

• @MarioNawful

• UKRAINE IS BUILDING A $1.5 BILLION SKI RESORT IN THE MOUNTAINS?! Ukraine is building a giant ski and vacation resort called GORO in the Lviv region — and it’s going to cost $1.5 billion. The project will include Ukraine’s first-ever gondola lift (2.8 km long), the country’s longest ski slope (3.8 km), and 25 hotels with 5,500 rooms. OKKO Group, the gas station company behind it, is paying $500 million and plans to raise another $1 billion from investors. Construction was delayed by the war, but the first part of the resort should be finished by 2028. (video)
• ASIA CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS BLOW OUT TO 2020 LEVELS. Credit-default swaps across Asia widened at the fastest pace since the March 2020 Covid crash. The spike follows Trump’s tariff escalation and China’s retaliation, triggering a deepening selloff in risk assets. Markets are pricing in elevated credit risk as fears of a global economic slowdown surge.

• @kylenabecker 

• BREAKING: China restricts exports of seven rare earth metals to all countries. Xi just proved Trump's point.

• @nicksortor

• #BREAKING: Pro-Palestine protestors have illegally TAKEN OVER Grand Central Terminal in New York City. DEPORT THEM ALL NOW! They have NO BUSINESS in our country! Why is this being allowed??! (video)

• @APompliano

• Stanley Druckenmiller thinks tariffs are the lesser of two evils. We have to do something given the current situation the United States finds itself in. Listen to the GOAT explain. (video)

• @JimFergusonUK

• ELON MUSK’S WARNING TO EUROPE: “Eventually, you will see widespread slaughter.” “The trend leads to the widespread slaughter of Europe…” “You are seeing a massive increase in attacks — and the media is downplaying it.” These aren’t wild predictions. They’re already happening in real time. (video)
  

• @WCdispatch_

• REPORT: The Trump tariffs have set off endless speculation and market turmoil, but no one is talking about the real target in this agenda: China. An analysis shows that nearly all of the countries on the tariff list hit with high tariffs are part of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The tariffs escalate the U.S.-China economic rivalry, with China retaliating with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods, contributing to a $5 trillion global market loss. By targeting BRI countries like Indonesia and Pakistan, the U.S. aims to weaken China’s $2.9 trillion trade network, potentially forcing nations to choose between Chinese investment and U.S. market access, signaling a broader economic warfare strategy to undermine China’s BRI and global economic dominance. (pic)

• @Breaking911

• WOW: The executive director of the far-left activist group 'Defense for Democracy' says her kids that aren't queer are 'dead to me.' These people are truly sick.

• @anish_koka

• Jaw dropping numbers : CEO of the American Heart Association makes $4million annually. Annual revenue: $ 972 million. Annual Employee compensation: $435 million. (pic)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +2.0% to +3.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.25 +10.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 73.5 +4.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 39.3 +.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.4 -2.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.6%.

• S&P 500 futures +.81%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.75%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.