Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DRI)/1.74
• (FDS)/3.51
  

After the Close: 

• (MANU)/-.04
• (RAD)/-1.47
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The Current Account Deficit for 2Q is estimated to widen to $-220.0B versus -$219.3B in 1Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 225K versus 220K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1692K versus 1688K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for Sept. is estimated to fall to -1.0 versus 12.0 in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Aug. is estimated to rise to 4.1M versus 4.07M in July.
• The Leading Index for Aug. is estimated to fall to -.5% versus -.4% in July.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (NVO) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BoE rate decision/minutes, weekly EIA natural gas inventory, KeyBanc Investor Conference, (ORCL) CloudWorld 2023, (ADBE) fireside chat, (CRL) investor day and the (MSFT) product event report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -23.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 +2.8
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 76.7% of Issues Advancing, 20.3% Declining
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 44.8%(+5.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 +6.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 73.1 -.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,411.6 -.57%
• 1-Day Vix 12.9 -6.4%
  
• Vix 14.0 -1.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .96 +5.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 -24.4%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China LGFV Bond Sales Boom Again as Beijing Steps Up Support.
• Housing ‘Vicious Spiral’ Drags Australia Into Deepening Crisis.
• Yellen Says Yen Intervention Understandable If Due to Volatility. 
• Global Economy Poised to Slow as Rate Hikes Bite, OECD Says.
• COP28’s Biggest Conflicts Are on Display at the UN General Assembly.
• Asia Stocks Set for Cautious Start as Fed in Focus: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil’s Blistering Rally Takes Breather as Investors Turn to Fed.
• Fed Set to Pause Rate Hikes, But Don’t Count Out Another Increase. 
• Dollar Rally Is Crushing One of the Most Popular Trades of 2023.
• The Rise in Oil Prices Is a Problem for Fed’s Soft Landing.
• UAW Strike Puts Most-Exposed Auto Suppliers at Risk of Losing $38 Billion.
• Most-Powerful CEOs Hedge Bets in New Era of Economic Upheaval.
• Traders Make Late Dash Into Bets Fed Stays Higher for Longer.

Zero Hedge:

• Ray Epps Charged With Misdemeanor In Long-Delayed Wrist-Slap.
• Russell Brand Demonetized After Sexual Assault Claims.
• NYT In Rare About-Face Now Says Ukraine (Not Russia) Behind Mass Casualty Missile Strike On Market.
• California Legislature Approves $25 Per Hour Healthcare Worker Minimum Wage Bill.
• Trump Gambles On GOP Support For Abortion Compromise.
• Permanent Strike: Ford Lays Off 600 Workers Due To UAW Strike.
• UN To Discuss How To Better Control The World At Annual General Assembly.
• FDA Has 'Gone Rogue' In Its Approval Of New COVID-19 Boosters: Dr. Robert Malone.
• US stocks finished lower on the eve of the FOMC as yields climbed after hot Canadian CPI data and oil hit a YTD peak - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• India Rejects Trudeau's "Absurd" Accusations It Assassinated Canadian Citizen, Expels Diplomat In Tit-For-Tat.
• Zelensky Disappointed? Biden's Lackluster UN Speech Only Briefly Focused On Ukraine.
• WTI Holds Gains After API Reports Bigger-Than-Expected Crude Draw.
• Deliberately Distorting Data To Downplay Devastation Of Bidenomics.
• Stocks and Bonds slide after hot Canada CPI on eve of FOMC - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• The Peculiar Power Of Denial.
• Bond Yields Blasted To 16 Year Highs; Stocks Sink Ahead Of Fed.
• AI Bubble Bursting: Hedge Funds Are Furiously Shorting Semi Stocks.
• Is The Gig Economy On The Verge Of Destruction?
• Goldman Lists 300 Volatility Catalysts Through Year-End Which Will Propel VIX Higher.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Unexpected New Winners in the Global Energy War.
• Marlboro Maker Hits Reset on $2 Billion Bet on Medicine
• DOJ Scrutinizing Musk Perks at Tesla Going Back Years
• China’s Former Foreign Minister Ousted After Alleged Affair
• Bidenomics Is Unsustainable. Subsidies for unions will drive labor costs up, making the U.S. uncompetitive.
• Maui Firefighters Took Lunch as Lahaina Blaze Seemed Dead. Then It Grew..
• Fed’s Next Challenge: $100 Oil.
• Companies Stall Climate Action Despite Earlier Promises.
• All Pregnant Women Should Be Screened for Blood-Pressure Disorders, U.S. Advisers Say.
  

CNBC.com:

• Here’s everything the Fed is expected to do Wednesday.
• Microsoft projects two new areas of growth for gaming, leaked document says: Mobile and ads.
• Meet Airbnb’s official party pooper, who reduced partying by 55% in two years.
• Eli Lilly sues clinics allegedly selling knockoff versions of Mounjaro diabetes drug.
• Klaviyo valued at $9.2 billion after pricing IPO above range: Reuters.
• Ford barrels toward new Canadian strike that could affect F-Series pickup production.

MarketWatch.com:

• The Fed will decide to cut rates when? Here are 5 Wall Street predictions through 2024.
• Intel’s stock slides to become Dow’s worst as inventory ‘air pocket’ overshadows AI chip rollouts.
• Steelcase expects ‘significantly improved’ profit, as more employees return to offices.
• Government shutdown: Analysts warn of ‘perhaps a long one lasting into the winter’.
• Retailers compete to be first to hold holiday sales in a bid to spur flagging demand.

Newsmax:

• Trump: 'Nobody' Attended Biden's 'Surrender' Speech at UN.
• Rep. Moore: No Aid for Ukraine Without Oversight.
• Moolenaar: Yellen Must Take China Land Buys Seriously.

Fox News:

• Failed Biden nominee quietly appointed to top role: 'Unelected, unaccountable'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• THE GREAT RESET: Radical Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego Begins Implementing Climate Organization’s Goal to Ban Meat, Dairy, and Private Vehicles In 14 US Cities by 2030.
• Judicial Watch Uncovers Key Documents and Photos on Chinese Covid Labs in California.
• Rep. Matt Gaetz Calls for Repatriation of US Taxpayer Dollars Sent to Ukraine (VIDEO).
• NYC May Remove George Washington Statues, Create Reparations Task Force to “Consider the Impact of Slavery and Past Injustices For African Americans”.
• PELOSI LIED! Former Capitol Police Chief Sund Testifies He Had 3 Calls with Pelosi on Jan. 6 – Pelosi Said They Never Spoke – But Sund Says He Has the Receipts! (VIDEO).
• NYC Mayor Appears to Snub Biden Multiple Times as President Visits City.
• “What the F*** are Y’all looking at? I Fight Kids” – 13-Year-Old Child Savagely Beaten by Female Thug at a Los Angeles McDonald’s While Bystanders Watch and Record (VIDEO).
• California’s Democrat Legislators Vote to Ban Grass Lawns.
• JUST IN: Rep. Matt Gaetz Drafts Subpoena for Hunter Biden’s Records and Deposition, Calls on Kevin McCarthy to Sign it: “Millions of Americans Are Wondering if You’re Serious”.
• DHS Announces Establishment of New “Homeland Intelligence Experts Group”.
• REGIME THEATRICS: After 2.5 Years DOJ Finally Charges Suspected Ray Epps with One Misdemeanor After He Was CAUGHT ON VIDEO Urging Trump Supporters to ENTER the US Capitol – And Was Caught Attacking Police!
• 20 Common Functions of American Life the Government Wants to Regulate, Restrict or Outright Ban.
• UPDATE: Democrat Mayoral Candidate John Gomes Files Lawsuit After Video Shows Democrat Opponents Stuffing Ballot Drop Boxes Numerous Times with Hundreds of Ballots.

The Epoch Times:

• US Sanctions Chinese Companies Over Iran's Drones, Military Aircraft.
• US, EU Seek to Curb China's Steel Power Play With New Tariffs.

Twitter:

• @matttttt187 - 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐨 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐩 𝐦𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐲 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐁𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐬 "𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝." (video)
• @_aussie17 - This is one of the most important clips to watch to understand why the experimental vaccines were approved. (video)
• @unusual_whales - In over 20 years, the national average rent-to-income has reached its highest number ever at 30%. This means that out of a normal US citizen's income, 30% of it will go directly to rent.
• @JunkScience - Antarctic sea ice extent at 'mind-blowing low'? Nope. - 2023 max extent: 17,600,000 sq. km. - 1966 max extent: 15,900,000 sq. km. - 2023 extent about the same as 1986. 1966 and 1986 were much of CO2 ago.
• @TheFP - America is already beholden to China for antibiotics, lithium batteries, and 5G equipment. Now they are cornering the market on an important technology used in self-driving vehicles.
• @backtolife_2023 - The clean energy ‘scam’ is unravelling ‘very quickly’: Cory Bernardi Source: Sky News Australia. (video)
• @TheGreatSifting - The pathway to instant slavery as an indentured servant is when you accept digital currency. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 985,418 Reports(+1,625 from prior week) Through September 8th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.75 +5.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 74.0 +4.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 121.50 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.2 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.8 +1.4%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 41.0 -6.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.6 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Escalating US Government Shutdown Concerns, Technical Selling, Energy/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.2 +1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .75%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.4 +.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.7 -1.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.3 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.3 +1.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -16.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.06 -31.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.3 +.32%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 310.48 -.01%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 337.0 -18
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.66 +.57% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 264.2 -.85%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 178.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.7 -.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 199.8 -2.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 +.12%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.5 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 906.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.2 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.45% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.81%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.8 euros/megawatt-hour +6.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.5 -2.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.0 +3.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.6 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 500 reporting) +7.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.40 +.27:  Growth Rate +8.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.5 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.15% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.21 +14.67: Growth Rate +58.1% +8.8 percentage points, P/E 29.0 -2.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .50 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .34 -12.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -74.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.86% -8.0 basis pionts
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% +3.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 70.8%(+5.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 59.8%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -117 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -2.1% 2) Energy -1.4% 3) Gambling -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CBAY, BASE, CCJ, DIS, MELI, IOT, OTEX, CAVA, ASAN, AFRM, PLNT, CNHI, CDLX, MEDP, LAC, CABA, PHAT, CHEF, ELF, APP, SFWL, EBIX and RVNC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UEC 2) IBB 3) ARM 4) SPR 5) AZN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NIO 2) SQ 3) RKLB 4) DE 5) PLNT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +.8% 2) Telecom +.7% 3) Computer Hardware +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DAVA, AMAM, SMTC, ACLX, MSGE, ARRY, MEOH, ENPH, MLKN, PLCE, HNRG, APLS, ARCT, HMC, TARS, TDS, CBOE, PINS, OMCL, IRBT, FLR, GCT, VITL, HRMY, MDGL, CRNC, TM and X
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ARM 2) SOVO 3) NYCB 4) CLX 5) NCR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RXT 2) ENPH 3) APLS 4) IRWD 5) SMCI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume