Tuesday, May 09, 2017

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • China Stocks Adored Abroad as Local Investors See Losses Mount. Overseas investors are sticking with China’s stocks and bonds even as the country’s crackdown on leverage wipes almost $500 billion from the domestic market. While the Shanghai Composite Index is close to an October low, the MSCI China Index -- composed almost entirely of Hong Kong and U.S. listings -- is holding on to this year’s 17 percent gain. The disconnect also applies to fixed income, with international funds owning the most sovereign debt on record and the extra cost that investors demand to hold Chinese companies’ dollar bonds over Treasuries near a decade-low. Mainland markets have struggled under the government’s campaign to trim risk in the financial sector, making stocks the least linked to the offshore index since 2006. With history showing sentiment can flip quarter to quarter, international traders are riding on a bet that solid corporate and economic data will continue to support the divergence.
  • China’s Factory Prices Ease as Commodity Market Surge Abates. Producer price index rose 6.4 percent from a year earlier, versus a 6.7 percent Bloomberg survey estimate and 7.6 percent gain in March. Consumer price index climbed 1.2 percent, versus 0.9 percent gain a month earlier, the statistics bureau said Wednesday.
  • Japan Stocks Rise and Kospi Swings; Yen Gain Fades. Stocks in Japan climbed on optimism healthy corporate earnings can spur further gains, while South Korean shares fluctuated after Moon Jae-in’s presidential victory. The yen and gold pared an advance. Strength in safe haven assets triggered by concerns over North Korea’s nuclear program eased during the morning in Asia. Australian banks declined after they were slapped with a new tax in the country’s budget. The greenback slipped after reaching the highest in a month Tuesday in the wake of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The yen traded at 113.93 per dollar as of 10:19 a.m. in Tokyo, little changed after jumping as much as 0.3 percent earlier. The currency fell during the past three sessions to the lowest level since mid-March. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lost 0.2 percent after climbing 0.4 percent Tuesday. Japan’s Topix index increased 0.4 percent and South Korea’s Kospi added 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.2 percent, reversing earlier declines.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.75 -1.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 20.5 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.74 +.08%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.16%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

  • (MYL)/.92
  • (SODA)/.43
  • (BID)/-.40
  • (TM)/119.46
  • (VMC)/.22
  • (WEN)/.08
  • (WWW)/.31 
  • (FOXA)/.48
  • (CTRP)/.13
  • (NTES)/4.03
  • (RGLD)/.33
  • (SYMC)/.28
  • (WFM)/.37
Economic Releases  
8:30 am EST
  • The Import Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in March.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in March. 
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,081,670 barrels versus a -930,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +28,220 barrels versus a +191,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -549,440 barrels versus a -562,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.08% versus a -.8% decline prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Statement for April is estimated to rise to $179.0B versus $176.2B in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Rosengren speaking,  $23B 10Y T-Note auction, WASDE crop report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Citi Energy/Utilities Conference, Platts Crude Oil Summit, (SNY) annual meeting, (VAR) investor day and the (NVDA) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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