Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Homebuilding/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.31 +16.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.92 -.20%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.10 -.49%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.08 +11.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 48.0 -38.46%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +8.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.44 +85.45%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.45 +1.35%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 366.0 +.77%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.29 -2.26%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.75 -3.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.65 -.35%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 119.81 +2.78%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.82 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 30.0 -2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.42 -.60%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.65% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 64.25 +1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 78.17 USD/Metric Tonne -.56%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.50 -4.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.90 +5.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.20 +2.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -139 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -78 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -38 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging markets shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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