Friday, February 23, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Less US/European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Rise, Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.3 -7.32%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.55 -.44%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.26 -2.82%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.60 -1.58%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +45.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.08 -2.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.19 +36.44%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.54 +1.07%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 370.0 -9.42%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.41 +4.91%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.5 +3.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.66 -1.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 121.61 -2.66%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.92 +.19%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 31.0 +5.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.75 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.72 +.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.64% unch.
  • Yield Curve 63.0 -3.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 78.09 USD/Metric Tonne +.12%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.10 -1.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.1 +.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.40 -1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +30 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging markets shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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