Monday, February 19, 2018

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Russia Warns U.S. Not to ‘Play With Fire’ in Syrian Conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the Trump administration not to “play with fire” as he lashed out at the U.S. over what he described as its “provocative” support for autonomy-seeking Kurds in Syria. “The U.S. should stop playing very dangerous games which could lead to the dismemberment of the Syrian state,” Lavrov said at a Middle East conference in Moscow on Monday, alongside his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif and a top adviser of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. “We are seeing attempts to exploit the Kurds’ aspirations.”
  • U.K. Has a Secret Plan to Hold Brexit Cash If EU Refuses to Trade. Prime Minister Theresa May’s team is eyeing up a contingency plan to hold back billions of pounds in Brexit payments, if the European Union refuses to give the U.K. the trade deal it wants. Senior British officials have privately discussed the idea as a fall-back option that could be triggered if negotiations go wrong, three people familiar with the matter said.
  • Asia Stocks Track U.S. Futures Down; Dollar Steady. (video) Asian stocks took their cue from a decline in U.S. futures to open lower and the yen consolidated after its biggest drop in two weeks. The dollar steadied and oil climbed in holiday-thin trading. Japan’s Topix index dropped after staging it’s second-best performance this year, while shares in Australia and South Korea also fell after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined for the first time in four days. The yen steadied after retreating from a 15-month high. Treasuries declined. European markets were the center of investor attention on Monday as U.S. stocks and Treasuries took a break for Presidents’ Day holiday. Traders return to their desks in Hong Kong on Tuesday, while Chinese markets reopen on Thursday. The Topix fell 0.7 percent as of 9:25 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.8 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index was down 0.4 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.1 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4 percent.
  • Hedge Funds Turn Short on Tech Just as Stock Rally Intensifies. A key group of investors has just missed out on the biggest tech-stock rally since 2014. Hedge funds and other large speculators turned net short on Nasdaq 100 Index futures for the first time in 21 months, according to weekly data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission through Feb. 13. In fact, they became the most bearish since 2011. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy index gained 5.6 percent in the five days through Friday, the most since October 2014.
  • Coinbase Runs From One Fire to the Next. Coinbase Inc. is one of the most popular online exchanges for digital currencies. But last year, it started seeing complaints soar on the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s website. Unfortunately for the San Francisco business and its customers, things have only gotten worse.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:      
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.25 -1.25 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.25 -.5 basis  point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.92 -.08%. 
  • FTSE 100 futures -.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.32%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.26%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (CBRL)/2.31
  • (DPZ)/1.95
  • (DUK)/.92
  • (EXPD)/.64
  • (GCI)/.46
  • (HD)/1.62
  • (MDT)/1.17
  • (MGM)/.10
  • (WMT)/1.37
  • (WLH)/.85 
  • (BYD)/.25
  • (CXO)/.44
  • (DDS)/1.76
  • (FE)/.68
  • (LZB)/.46
  • (OSTK)/-.03
  • (PSA)/2.73
  • (RCII)/-.07
  • (TDW)/-.72
  • (RIG)/-.27
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German ZEW Index, 2Y $28B T-Note auction, (TSCO) investment community day and the (RDWR) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

No comments: