Friday, February 09, 2018

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 34.61 +2.96%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.50 -.20%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.33 -.11%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.84 -3.27%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 67.0 -23.86%
  • Total Put/Call 1.37 +19.13%
  • NYSE Arms .69 -44.29%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.89 +4.9%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 408.0 +7.8%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.92 +12.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.25 +7.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.67 +8.27%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 145.23 +10.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.41 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.5 +3.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 25.75 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.25 -7.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.71 -.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 77.50 +5.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 74.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.40 -.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 42.70 +3.0 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.9 -1.1 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -3.0 basis points
  • 98.1% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 9.2% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -327 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -394 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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