Friday, May 25, 2018

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on European/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Less Economic Optimism, Commodity/Telecom Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.9 +3.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.82 -.36%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.1 +1.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 +46.3%
  • Total Put/Call .96 +12.9%
  • NYSE Arms 2.09 +65.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.16 +1.75%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 368.0 +3.38%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.10 +7.24%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 205.5 +12.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.20 -.93%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.76 +1.81%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.79 +.20%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.50 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 43.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 -3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.04 -.29%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.89% unch.
  • Yield Curve 45.25 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 64.03 USD/Metric Tonne +.16%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.0 +4.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -96.60 +1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.0 -.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 -3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at August 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at September 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -90  open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -2 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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