Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Trade War Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Geopolitical Tensions, Homebuilding/Medical Equipment Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.6 +12.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.13 -.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.92 +4.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.89 +6.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 -4.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.11 +27.6%
  • NYSE Arms .88 +7.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.75 +1.98%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 368.0 -.12%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.28 +1.87%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 +.75 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.29 +2.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 164.42 +6.12%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.39 -.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 43.75 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 -4.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.48 -.96%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.90% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 49.25 +4.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 67.73 USD/Metric Tonne -.04%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.90 -1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -96.90 -2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.9 -2.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at August 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at September 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -68  open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -135 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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