Thursday, May 24, 2018

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Worries, Geopolitical Tensions, Oil Decline, Energy/Telecom Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.74 +1.27%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.45 -.46%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 -.65%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.86 -.31%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 +6.45%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -15.15%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -7.19%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.19 +.60%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 358.0 +.86%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.97 +2.17%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.75 +3.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.31 -1.05%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 158.69 +1.32%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.49 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.25 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 43.5 +2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.12 -.29%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.89% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 47.25 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.15 USD/Metric Tonne +1.18%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.0 -1.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -98.20 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.50 -.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at August 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at September 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -152  open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +7 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/retail/industrial/tech sector longs and my emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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