Thursday, May 10, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Lower Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.2 -1.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.74 +.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.67 -1.25%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.0 -1.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 155.0 +36.0%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -3.6%
  • NYSE Arms .81 -6.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.11 -2.23%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 370.0 -1.24%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.5 -1.65%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.75 -5.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.5 -4.44%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 148.96 -5.78%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.33 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 47.25 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.65 +1.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.88% unch.
  • Yield Curve 43.5 -3.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 66.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.12%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.2 -6.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -98.90 +2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.7 -1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at August 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at September 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +33  open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +77 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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