Thursday, March 02, 2023

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Dovish Fedspeak, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Earnings Optimism, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.3 -1.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .53%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.8 +1.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.90 -.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 +.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.6 +2.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -16.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 -5.3%
  • NYSE Arms .76 -15.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.2 +.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.90 -.36%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 329.0 +5
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.16 +1.2% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 397.1 -.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.1 +.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 241.0 +1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.3 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 33.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.25 basis points -3.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 +1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  155.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 532.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.32%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.84% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 126.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.8 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.1 +.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 70.8 +11.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.4 +.3 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 223.99 -1.14:  Growth Rate +1.0% -.2 percentage point, P/E 17.6 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.34% unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -84.5 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.27% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% unch.: CPI YoY +6.21% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +6.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 63.8%(-4.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 55.7%(-4.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
US Covid-19:
  • 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.3%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +162 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +101 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +61 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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