Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.4 +1.0%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.2 -.8%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .43 -2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.03 -5.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.2 +3.8%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 158.3 +.9%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 59.8 +.7%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.9 -1.5
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.4 -.3
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 55.4 +2.2
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.9 -2.5
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +172.6% -5.3 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 407.93 +.40: Growth Rate +24.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.1 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.35% +4.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,084.53 +1.19: Growth Rate +61.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.0 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.23 +3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 51.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.5 unch.
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 79.0 euros/megawatt-hour +4.3%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 8.7% -.2 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.28% +2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 69.2% (+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 50.1%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -145 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -235 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +2 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +173 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slight Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% net long
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