Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.6 -1.2%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.5 -.2%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .42 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .06 -4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.8 -.1%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 162.2 -3.1%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 63.4 +7.0%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.2 -1.5
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.0 -.7
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 68.5 -6.0
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.2 -.4
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +177.9% -6.7 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 407.23 +2.50: Growth Rate +24.1% +.8 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.30% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,082.19 +25.41: Growth Rate +61.2% +3.8 percentage points, P/E 17.9 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +11.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 48.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.3 +1.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 73.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.9%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 8.0% +.1 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.31% +4.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 65.9% (-1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 43.7%(-3.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -160 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +18 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +230 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% net long
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