Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.8 +1.0%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.0 -.9%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .41 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.00 -1.0 basis point
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.5 +.4%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 158.5 +1.2%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 59.5 +1.0%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.1 +1.4
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.1 -1.7
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.7 -1.1
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.8 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(26 of 500 reporting) +67.6% -76.4 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 409.09 +.12: Growth Rate +24.6% unch., P/E 19.1 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.35% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,088.49 +.78: Growth Rate +62.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.0 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.19 -2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 42.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 174.9 -.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 86.9 euros/megawatt-hour +3.0%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.6% +.2%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.6% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.23% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.78 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 70.8% (+.9 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 45.9%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +530 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -108 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +16 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my energy/consumer discretionary sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long
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