Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.2 +1.2%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.0 +1.3%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .45 +2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.01 +2.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.5 +.5%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 158.8 +.3%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 60.0 +.4%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.2 +1.3
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.2 +.8
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 54.5 -.9
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.6 +.7
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +150.6% -22.0 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 408.35 +.42: Growth Rate +24.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.0 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.36% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,085.11 +.58: Growth Rate +61.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.21 -2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 47.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 172.9 -1.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 77.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 8.7% unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.6% -10.0 basis points
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.23% -6.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 +10.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 69.2% (+2.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 50.1%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -640 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -210 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -19 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +294 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slight Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long
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