Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Surging Eurozone Sovereign Debt Angst, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Worries, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.1 +2.9%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 66.2 +2.0% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .41 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .04 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.3 +4.7% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 170.0 +4.3% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 63.0 +3.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 84.3 -2.8

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.0 +2.5

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.9 -1.5

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.2 -1.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(113 of 500 reporting) +38.3% +1.2 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 411.75 +.32:  Growth Rate +25.4% unch., P/E 18.6 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.36% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +499.8% -103.1 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,092.71 +.38: Growth Rate +62.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 16.8 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.2 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 30.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.2 -1.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 91.1 euros/megawatt-hour +4.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.6% +.3%
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.5% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.96% -16.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.03 +1.0 basis point

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 73.8% (-2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 56.7%(+12.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -200 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -13 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +109 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long