Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.8 -2.2%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.9 -.4%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .45 +3.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .02 -4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.6 -4.4%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 157.0 -2.7%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 59.3 -6.5%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.4 +2.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.7 -.3
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.2 -15.3
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.4 -.8
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +177.9% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 407.53 +.30: Growth Rate +24.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.31% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,083.34 +1.15: Growth Rate +61.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.20 +3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 47.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.5 +.13%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 76.4 euros/megawatt-hour +4.0%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 8.9% +.9 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.26% -4.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 -4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 70.2% (+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 48.2%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -159 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -1 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% net long
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