Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Short-Covering, Seasonality, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.2 -.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .70%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.2 -2.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.77 -.30%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.98 -.58%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.1 -1.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 +8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.13 -1.74%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 +3.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.3 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 361.95 -1.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 424.0 +2.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.92 -2.95% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 351.66 -1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis points -6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.3 -2.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 240.51 -1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.68 +.36%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 39.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -37.5 basis points +9.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  144.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 127.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.21 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.40 +.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% +8.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -77.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.2 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 129.5 euros/megawatt-hour +89.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.5 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.1 +28.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 -.6 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.77 -.34:  Growth Rate +11.2% -.2 percentage point, P/E 17.5 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.48 +11.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.26% +8.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.55% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 51.8%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 41.1%(+4.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.7%(+.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +234 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -26.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 63.5% of Issues Advancing, 33.2% Declining
• 53 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 45.2%(+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +6.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 46.8 -3.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,584.3 +.8%
  
• Vix 21.0 -1.2%
• Total Put/Call .96 -16.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.4 +21.6% 

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                            

• Australia to Raise Key Rate to 3.6% to Cool Prices, Survey Shows.  
• New Zealand Steps Up Inflation Fight With Record Rate Hike.
  
• Singapore Sees 2023 Growth as Low as 0.5% Amid Global Headwinds.  
• Economist Who Called China’s Housing Slump Sees Slow Recovery.  
• Chill on China Investment Creates ‘Gap’ for Canada Miners, Lithium CEO Says.
  
• Asia Stocks Follow Wall Street Rally; Dollar Eases: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Pushes Higher as Traders Look to Cap Plan, Lower Stockpiles.
• FTX Is Allowed to Hide the Identity of Its 50 Biggest Creditors.  
• Grayscale Is the ‘Cash Cow’ of Silbert’s Empire, Ark’s Wood Says.  
• Goldman Sees 10-Year Treasury Yield of 4% or More Through 2024.
• Fed Officials Are Focused on Tackling High Inflation, Mester Says.
• HP to Cut Up to 6,000 Jobs Over Three Years as PC Demand Falters.

Wall Street Journal:

• FTX Lawyer Says Substantial Amount of Assets Missing.
• Streetwise: Crypto Speculation Is All But Over. Its Systemic Troubles Aren’t.
• WSJ News Exclusive | Sequoia Capital Apologizes to Fund Investors for FTX Loss.
• Student Loans: Biden’s Eternal Emergency. With his $420 billion cancellation in the legal dock, he delays repayments again.
• Home Sales to Investors Drop 30%.
• Confronting Iran Protests, Regime Uses Brute Force but Secretly Appeals to Moderates.
• Western Allies Aim to Agree on Russian Oil Price Cap Wednesday.
• Russia Threatens to Reduce Gas Exports to Europe Further.

Fox News:

• Twitter erupts after CBS makes Hunter Biden laptop admission — 2 years later.
• Mark Kelly criticizes fellow Dems over border: 'Not even close' to understanding.
• Hundreds of congregations split from regional United Methodist Church.

CNBC.com:

• Charts suggest the ‘mother of all buying opportunities’ for oil is coming next month, Cramer says.
• Treasury Department release guidelines for Russian oil transport ahead of planned price cap.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nordstrom, Autodesk and more.
  

MarketWatch:           

• Retirement stock plans can use ESG scrutiny, new rule at Labor Department says .
  
• The best-performing sector in 2022 is not finished crushing it, says Citi, offering three stocks to buy.
• These stocks are burning cash fast and might need to raise capital soon, Goldman Sachs flags.

Zero Hedge:

• Special Counsel Investigating Trump Is 'Tool To Attack A Political Enemy': FBI Veteran.
• Chaos Breaks Out As Reporters Ask Fauci About COVID Origins.
• Kari Lake Gives Update, Says "Whistleblowers Are Coming Forward". 
• Egg Prices At Grocery Stores Hyperinflate Ahead Of Thanksgiving.
• Joe Biden & The "Transformational" Presidency.
• China Pauses Purchases Of Some Russian Oils Ahead Of Price Cap.
• How Money From Gates And FTX Bought Scientific Silence.
• California Workers Win $125,000 After Vaccine Discrimination Lawsuit.
• Biden Extends Student Loan Repayment Freeze Until June 30.
• US stocks gained amid a softer a dollar and yields on a broad risk revival - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Supreme Court Clears Way For House Dems To Obtain Trump's Taxes.
• WTI Holds Gains After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw.
• Bolsonaro Sues To Invalidate 250,000 Votes Over "Malfunctioning Ballot Boxes".
• Sucking fear out of equities.
• What A Choice: A Tyrannical World Government Or A Nuclear War.
• Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities bounce and Dollar dips in global risk on - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Big Tech, Bonds, & Bitcoin Bounce As Yield Curve Inversion Deepens.
• Plant-Based Meat Industry On Edge As Beyond Meat Loses Sizzle.
• Corporate Defaults Would More Than Double Even In Mild Recession, S&P Global Warns.
• Highlights From First FTX Bankruptcy Hearing: "Substantial Amount" Of FTX Assets Stolen, "Dueling" Bahamas Liquidation Comes To A Head.

Newsmax:   

• Devin Nunes: D.C. 'Swamp' All Over Special-Counsel Pick.
• Rep. Brady: Biden's 'Cruel' Economy Damaging.
• Rep. Comer: Biden Lied to Americans About Son’s Laptop Data.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Nine-Hour Hearing Held in Delaware County After Officials Took a Detour from Counting Center into a Closed Building for 6 Hours on Election Day.
• Kevin McCarthy Calls on DHS Chief Mayorkas to Resign or Face Impeachment (VIDEO).
• WTH – Arizona State Mine Inspector And State Treasurers Race Saw HUGE Turnout For Republicans.
• Another Competitor in the Woke Olympics: The National Hockey League Tweets “Trans Women Are Women”.
• “We May Never Know” If China Has Blackmail Material on Joe Biden – Gordon Chang.
• BREAKING: Bolsonaro’s Party in Brazil Files Legal Complaint Challenging Lula’s Election Steal.
• Bidens to Spend Thanksgiving at $30 Million Nantucket Estate While Americans Struggle to Buy Turkey Dinner.
• Biden Covid Czar: “We’re Probably Gonna Need to Update Our Vaccine Again Next Year and Have Americans Get Vaccinated Again Next Year” (VIDEO).
• Balenciaga Under Fire Over Creepy Child Bondage Commercial.
• “Brazilian Military is Just Waiting for Bolsonaro to Give the Order to Arrest Corrupt Communist Judge”.
• More Fakery in the FTX Bankruptcy Court – Judge Rules on Keeping Creditors’ Names Redacted.
• Michigan House Speaker Sneers at Election Integrity Legislators, Refuses 2022 Voter Fraud Investigation.

The Epoch Times:

• US Activates Space Force Command in Indo–Pacific Amid Tensions With North Korea, China.
• China Calls on Veterans and CCP Members to Help an Apple iPhone Factory.

Twitter: 

• @BernieSpofforth - CANADA - Your bank is preparing to roll out CBDCs. Those vaccine passports didn’t set you free, they forced you down a road of no return! Forever linked to your ‘good’ behaviour, even how you will spend your own money. Can you see it yet? (video)
• @BennyJohnson - Tucker Carlson: "Of course there is no elite pedophile ring that runs the world." Also Tucker Carlson: Here is the hard evidence that an elite pedophile ring runs the world. Watch. You decide. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 898,029 Reports(+3,179 from prior week) Through November 11th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 154.75 +8.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 80.5 -3.75 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 93.70 USD/Metric Tonne +.28%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.3 +.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.7 . 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.58 +3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.0 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.36%.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DE)/7.11
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
• Durables Ex Transports for Oct. is estimated unch. versus a -.5% decline in Sept.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Oct. is estimated unch. versus a -.4% decline in Sept.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 225,000 versus 222,000 the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1520K versus 1507K prior.

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Nov. is estimated to fall to 50.0 versus 50.4 in Oct.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 48.0 versus 47.8 in Oct.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for Nov. is estimated to fall to 48.0 versus 48.2 in Oct.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Oct. is estimated to fall to 570K versus 603K in Sept.

2:00 pm EST

• Nov. 2nd FOMC Meeting Minutes. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Dollar Weakness, Seasonality, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.5 -3.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .67%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.2 +.87%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.2 -.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.3 +.09% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.18 +37.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.29 +11.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.9 -.77%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 370.02 +.33%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 422.0 +19.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.93 -1.99% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 357.25 +.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 194.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 155.9 +1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 243.63 -3.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.57 -.14%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 40.0 basis points -3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -47.0 basis points +4.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  144.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 130.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.22 +3.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.26 +.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.21% +6.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -76.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 124.5 euros/megawatt-hour +7.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.6 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.4 -.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 0.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.11 +.21:  Growth Rate +11.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.3 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.59 +10.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.18% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.55% -5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 53.2%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 45.2%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.1%(+1.6 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +145 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +40 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/commodity/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long