Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @RenzTom
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @LaraLogan
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @RWMaloneMD
  • @LaurenLee
  • @ScottPresler
  • @mattvanswol
  • @elonmusk
  • @Holden_Culotta
  • @TimBurchett
  • @amuse 
  • @AFPost
  • @CharlieK_news
  • @MikeZaccardi
  • @WallStreetMav
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.24%. 
  • Gold 4,627.3 USD/t oz. +.61%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.71 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.12 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 102.6 +.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.17% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.51% +1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 -.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.17%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Escalating US/Iran Tensions, US Tariff Ruling Uncertainty, Profit-Taking, Financial/Medical Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.2 +.6%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .19 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.27 +4.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.1 +.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 128.2 +1.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.5 -2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.7 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.8 -.8 point 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +18.4% -12.0 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 312.06 +.12:  Growth Rate +15.9% unch., P/E 22.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 489.31 +.45: Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.5 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .84 -2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 64.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 172.3 -.2% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.3% +.8 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.1% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 72.5% (+1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 60.5%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +500 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +93 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Insurance -2.4% 2) Computer Services -2.1% 3) Software -1.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • EHC, MA, ARM, ALL, V, ODD, RDW, JPM, ZBH, GDS, SNN, CARG, MESO, BRKR, PEN, ADBE, ATRO, MBLY, PDD, SMCI, MTG, IRTC, LUNR, ATEC, WGS, CLPT, FIG, PATH, FTK, BBOT, WLTH, TVTX and RGC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IYR 2) ROIV 3) AMCR 4) TVTX 5) SES
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SMCI 2) ADBE 3) IRTC 4) GDS 5) V
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) KBWB 3) OIH 4) IYT 5) XLY

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Energy +1.9% 2) Networking +1.7% 3) Steel +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AHMA, THH, TTMI, BIOA, GPCR, RCAT, ORIC, CSIQ, WRBY, RBLX, KMT, OPCH, STNG, GLSI, INTC, KEP, FN, EHAB, SDRL, NTLA, TMDX, THO, TWST, AMD, ALMS, DNTH, NPKI, RIGR, EOSE, VIA, PSTG, MNMD, NTST, UTZ, ICHR, RVTY, MTSI, UTZ, CVE, MUR, HYMC, TREE, AIRO, UMAC, MSTR, KELYA, SQM, TRMD, BNTX, RCUS, VIST, PBR, BWLP, IMO, UCTT, MAMA, FRO, RXO, ONC, LMRI, HII, MTH, CMPO, VTRS, FLNG, PBR/A, KRP, INSW and SSRM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GFS 2) ROIV 3) AMCR 4) SES 5) QNCX 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PDYN 2) TTMI 3) RCAT 4) INTC 5) AMD
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) XLF 3) SOXX 4) SHLD 5) XAR
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BAC)/.96
  • (C)/1.68
  • (WFC)/1.66 
After the Close: 
  • (FUL)/1.23
  • (HOMB)/.60 
Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

  • BLS to release Oct. and Nov. PPI on Jan. 14. 
  • Retail Sales Advance for Nov. 
  • The Current Account Balance for 3Q. 

10:00 am EST

  • Existing Home Sales for Dec. is estimated to rise to 4.22M versus 4.13M in Nov.
  • Business Inventories for Oct. 

10:30 am 

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,572,670 barrels versus a -3,832,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,898,330 barrels versus a +7,702,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -45,000 barrels versus a 594,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.65% versus unch. prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Supreme Court ruling on US tariffs, Fed's Miran speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Jan., JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Needham Tech/Growth Conference, (CMC) annual meeting and the CJS Securities New Ideas Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 -.1
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 52.0% of Issues Advancing, 46.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.35 -11.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$83.4M
  • 228 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
  • 67.7% (-.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 64.7 -1.5
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% unch.
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 27.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% unch.
  • US strikes Iran by June 30th 83.0% +17.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 102.4 +2.0%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 418.5 -6.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 270.0 -.8%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.1 -.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 56.0 (GREED) +5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.6 -.2%
  • Vix 15.9 +4.9%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -12.9%