Thursday, January 15, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @GenFlynn
  • @RenzTom
  • @TheSCIF
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @LaraLogan
  • @MikeBenzCyber
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @iluminatibot
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @OcxrazioCornPop
  • RINO ALERT: 46 House "Republicans" VOTED NO on an amendment to CUT FUNDING for the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals by 20% and eliminate staff and office budgets for 2 federal judges: - James Boasberg. - Deborah Boardman. IS YOUR REP ON THIS LIST OF TRAITORS? (list)
  • @ThePatriotOasis
  • @Sadie_NC
  • @EvaVlaar
  • @HealthRanger 
  • @mattvanswol
  • @RogerJStoneJr
  • @RedPillMediaX
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @DataRepublican
  • Everyone needs to read this thread to understand how the Constitution is being targeted and that NED is a key player in this. NED is my red line for Republicans. If you vote for NED, you deserve primarying. I don't care if you have sentimental attachments to NED as being founded by Reagan to destroy Communism, or that the people you know in NED are conservative and well-meaning. NED is now working to destroy the Constitution. (video)
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.0 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
  • Gold 4,600.0 USD/t oz. -.5%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.67 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.09 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 101.0 -.9%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.16% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.47% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 -.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.33%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.23%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.34%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Diminished US/Iran Tensions, US Economic/Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.9 -1.2%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .21 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.25 +3.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.0 -1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 127.3 -1.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 +.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.6 +8.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.2 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.1 +.4 point 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(26 of 500 reporting) +17.6% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 312.33 +.19:  Growth Rate +16.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.26% -14.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 490.01 +.35: Growth Rate +19.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 -6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 59.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.8 -.5% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.9% -.7 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.3% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.16% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 -5.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 80.3% (+7.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 67.0%(+7.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +60 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services -2.6% 2) Social Media -1.7% 3) Pharma -1.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • DVN, BSX, SPOT, KNSA, TME, AGI, PCRX, AVO, ABVX, IRON, WYFI, RDDT, CMCL and THH
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) PCG 2) BSX 3) SILJ 4) XLI 5) TCOM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) EBS 2) KLAR 3) SKYE 4) GAUZ 5) SLM
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLP 3) XLB 4) XLI 5) GDX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +4.8% 2) Semis +3.0% 3) Airlines +2.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AHMA, RILY, AXTI, GLXY, FIGR, FLNC, STUB, GRRR, SSYS, PEN, CVGW, CAMT, STRC, ENTG, GLDD, IMSR, TLN, MKSI, CALX, ONTO, CRWV, PL, CWH, KLAC, CWH, ATEC, AEIS, HSAI, ASTS, COHR, PTRN, UVTT, NVMI, SKYT, CWEN, MATX, SNDK, CWEN/A, TTMI, TIGO, AMAT, PENN, IMNM, VST, PSTG, PDFS, FTAI, OSCR, ANGO, RMBS, BKSY, RCAT, ASML, BLK, GILT, CBRL, ICHR, WGS, DSP, BWXT, U, Q, LEU, COHU, SMCI, RBLX, LRCX, TSM, AMD, UMAC, IRTC, ALHC, GS, VSH, UUUU, CLMT, LINC, NVTS, TWO, AIP, OPRA, IBKR, C, PATK, WLDN, CALM, BKR, CEPT, AAL, EOSE, HQY, HFWA, TEM, AES, CASY, CC, TREE, LTM, FSLR, DAVE, HNRG, FSLR, AVNS, MNDY, NVDA, LIVN, AEVA, SNCY, ACA, TECH and MAIN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CTRA 2) IBRX 3) GSAT 4) SHLS 5) MGM 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) IBRX 2) PEN 3) CSAI 4) SHCO 5) QMCO
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) XLE 4) XLK 5) VGT
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MTB)/4.48
  • (PNC)/4.20
  • (RF)/.61
  • (STT)/2.79 
After the Close: 
  • (BOKF)/2.16
Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

  • The NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Jan. 

9:15 am EST

  • Industrial Production MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus +.2%.
  • Manufacturing Production  for Dec. is estimated to fall -.1% versus unch. in Nov.
  • Capacity Utilization for Dec. is estimated at 76.0% versus 76.0% in Nov.  

10:00 am EST

  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 40.0 versus a reading of 39.0. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -2.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 -2.3
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 69.6% of Issues Advancing, 28.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.55 +53.5%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$187.9M
  • 217 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
  • 71.1% (+1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 69.9 +5.4
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 32.0% unch.
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 29.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US strikes Iran by June 30th 49.0% -39.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 102.4 +.9%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 409.5.25 -9.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 265.8 +.3%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 157.5 +.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (Moved to GREED from NEUTRAL) +15.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.8 -34.0%
  • Vix 15.4 -8.4%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -10.3%