Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Sector Rotation, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -750 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +101 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BKR)/.67
• (BOH)/1.26
• (STLD)/1.70 

After the Close: 

• (AGYS)/.46
• (BRO)/.90
• (CR)/1.41
• (GGG)/.77
• (NUE)/1.91
• (SANM)/2.13
• (WAL)/2.39 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• Chicago Fed releases Oct./Nov. National Activity Index data.
• Durable Goods Orders for Nov. 

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, 2Y T-Note auction, Dallas Fed PCE for Nov., TD Mining Conference and the Susquehanna Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The Trump administration wants to rewrite the US defense agreement with Denmark to remove any limits on its military presence in Greenland, people familiar with the matter say. 
• President Donald Trump said that his new Board of Peace was withdrawing Canada’s invitation to join it.
• Countries including the UK, Germany and the Netherlands will pledge to jointly develop 100 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity in the North Sea and step up security of such infrastructure amid growing threats of sabotage. 
• Credit investors who shrugged off an historic bout of global volatility this week are about to face a major test after yield premiums on US investment-grade corporate debt shrunk to their lowest in about three decades.
• The US government asked the nation’s grid operators to make backup power available from facilities including data centers as a record-breaking winter storm threatens blackouts across the country.
• Amazon is gearing up to ax thousands more corporate employees, ratcheting up efforts to streamline bureaucracy.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Suggests He Can Send $2,000 Tariff Rebate Checks Without Congress.
• House Speaker Endorses Impeachment Of Federal Judges Over Rulings.
• BREAKING: The Superior Court in DC just NUKED disgraced climate scientist Michael Mann AGAIN. Last year, Mann was sanctioned for "knowingly feeding the jury false data" in a manner of misconduct that was "extraordinary in its scope, extent, and intent." Today, the court doubled down, highlighting Michael Mann's lies: "Plaintiff left the jury with misleading evidence... the Court simply cannot condone such bad faith litigation tactics... Thus, the Court’s ruling must stand. It is the Court’s duty to punish and deter bad faith litigation tactics." Now Michael Mann must pay Rand Simberg $16,762.82 and Mark Steyn $11,404.80 within the next 30 days.  
• "We revised down global PC shipment estimates for 2026-28E amid increasing memory price, flattening replacement cycle after Windows 10 End of life, and demand pull-ins into 4Q25. We expect global PC shipments to see -5%/ +3% YoY in 2026E / 27E (vs. +3% / +3% previously)" - GS.
• Massive Fraud Infuriates Minnesotans, Lawmakers, But Top Official Sees No Quick Fix.
• "Trump Often Gets Something (TOGS) seems to most accurately describe Trump’s negotiating approach" - Standard Chartered.
• Texas AG Starts Investigation Into Vaccine-Related Financial Incentives.
• Narrative Control Made Easy: Us Versus Them.
• Trump Rages As Jack Smith Accidentally Exposed The Partisan Scam Behind The Jan 6 Probe.
• Gavin Newsom literally this morning: NEWSOM: "I'm proud of [giving illegals medicaid benefits]... we're one of 16 states to provide care to people regardless of their immigration status." (video)      
• Minnesota Judge Blocks Federal Charges Against Don Lemon Over Anti-ICE Church Disruption.
• Massive Winter Storm Puts 230 Million Americans At Risk As Panic Buying Begins. 
• Spain sees fourth train crash in five days.
• Gold & Stocks Jump As 'Good News' Sparks Dump In Rate-Cut Odds.  

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to rise ahead of Bank of Japan decision.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Elon Musk says Tesla taking safety supervisors out of some Robotaxi vehicles in Austin.
• Stock futures slip after major averages advance for second straight day: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Intel, Clorox, Capital One and more.

• @TheTranscript 

• Intuitive Surgical on FY26 expectations "The Company expects...worldwide da Vinci procedure growth of ~13% to 15% in 2026, compared to 18% in 2025." $ISRG: +3% AH.
• Alcoa CEO: "Reflecting on 2025, we maintained our pace of delivering on key operational, strategic, and capital allocation objectives, while setting numerous production records" $AA: +3% AH. 
• Intel CEO: "We delivered a solid finish to the year and made progress on our journey to build a new Intel." CFO: "We exceeded Q4 expectations across revenue, gross margin & EPS even as we navigated industry-wide supply shortages." $INTC: -6% AH. 

• @LaraLogan

• The polls are engineered to support the result they plan to get by stealing the election. In information warfare, it is a tactic known as “shaping”.
• This was easy to recognize in real time - and painful. You could not get people to listen or understand or believe you. So you had to watch it happen - like watching a high speed train heading for a wall & screaming into the wind, powerless to stop it. (video)
• Mr Vice President - you don’t have a few years. What you are describing is a deliberate strategy & it is not just the Democrats - it is your own side. They do not care if this prevents prosecutions - that is their goal. They don’t WANT accountability. But you took an oath - accountability is how you protect the right of every American to have redress of grievance, free & fair elections etc. It is not optional - it is your sacred & legal duty. And if you do not do it, they can come after you for that.  

• @RenzTom

• Here you have it. As I’ve been saying, the geoengineering and chemtrails are being done with public/private partnerships and ran through deep DOD and intel programs like DARPA. RFK and Zeldin wouldn’t have access to do anything about them. We are being poisoned by partnerships funded and controlled by BlackRock and the deep state agencies that control our government. Since I’m batting a thousand let me tell you what else I know - the next plandemic is on its way in the next couple of years… The wheels are already turning. (video)
• One year in, and still no accountability. Over 5,000 FBI agents worked on January 6. About 150 were fired. That’s it. Why are key figures still in place? Why is corruption this systemic, with nothing being done? A full year with Pam Bondi as AG, and not even basic housecleaning. No bad actors removed. No real reform. Inaction at this level isn’t just incompetence—it’s inexcusable. At some point, the question isn’t what went wrong; it’s who is protecting whom. Accountability matters. Silence and inaction are answers too. (video)

• @MikeBenzCyber

• 76 House Republicans joined every single House Democrat in support of earmarks for abortions, gender procedures on children, DEI activism, and partisan pet projects. With Republicans like these, who needs Democrats? Once again, Democrats vote 100% as a block, while a third of Republicans defect to the Democrats, giving Democrats an effective majority in the House.

• @MJTruthUltra

• Horror in Bulloch County, Georgia. Mexican illegal alien Arrested for R*ping an 11-Year-Old girl at Knifepoint During Home Invasion in Front of 10-Year-Old Sister • Kenneth Moreno Guzman, a 26-year-old illegal alien forced entry by breaking in through the back door of the home and entered a bedroom shared by two young sisters: an 11-year-old girl and her 10-year-old sister. Armed with a knife, Guzman reportedly held both girls at knifepoint to control the situation and prevent resistance or escape. He then forcibly raped the 11-year-old girl in the bedroom while threatening her with the knife.

• @timburchett 

• What could go wrong with Republicans giving Victoria Nuland's private CIA $315 million, right after she ran the CIA branch of the State Dept under Joe Biden? We are so compromised.

• @JamesOKeefeIII

• UNDERCOVER IN DAVOS: WEF Elites admit secrets about Geoengineering, “Artificial Rain,” and they say BlackRock is behind all of it… (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Mike Benz exposes the NGO National Endowment for Democracy is a money laundering operation for people in Government. - They approve hundreds of millions to NED. - Once they leave government they go work at NED and get massive salaries. - The head of NED makes more than the President of the United States. “Damon Wilson, the head of NED, makes twice the salary of the Secretary of State, even though it's funded by the State Department. The State Department is who funds NED, but the head of NED makes twice as much as the head of the State Department. Make that make sense? Of course, you know the answer. That's part of the game.

• @WhiteCoatWaste

• BREAKING: The NIH and Colorado State University are infecting animals with pathogens like Covid, anthrax, and Ebola for “bioweapons research.” And this CSU biolab has already had “dozens of lab accidents” in recent years. But that’s not even the worst part. The NIH just approved over $2 million more taxpayer dollars to build a Wuhan-style bat lab at CSU.

• @NicHulscher

• BREAKING: American Academy of Pediatrics SLAMMED With Federal RICO Lawsuit for Vaccine Safety Fraud. AAP accused of operating a decades-long racketeering scheme that deceived America about vaccine safety for maximum profit. Children's Health Defense and multiple plaintiffs just filed a federal RICO fraud case against the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP). This isn’t a policy dispute. It’s an organized fraud allegation—using the same legal framework that took down Big Tobacco. The lawsuit alleges the AAP helped manufacture false certainty that the CDC childhood vaccine schedule is thoroughly tested and safe. It highlights the lack of proper vaccinated vs. unvaccinated safety comparisons for the cumulative schedule, despite repeated calls for more research. Plaintiffs argue the AAP relied on theoretical talking points, not rigorous real-world safety validation, to shut down scrutiny.

• @elonmusk

• Population barely changed, but SNAP doubled due to massive fraud.

• @insatiablevine

• When you realize that the Democrats rigged the Republican Party , running left wing candidates under the Red Ticket -RINO’s make a lot more sense. In the Senate we have 15 Republican Senators with a Liberty Score = F!!! Collins, Murkowski, Graham, Capito, McConnell, Tillis, Wicker, Moran, Thune, Young, Rounds, Cornyn, Hyde-Smith, Cassidy, Grassley, This alone should grounds for removal.

• @DawnsMission

• GOP traitors blocking the SAVE Act are playing a dangerous game—they KNOW if it passes, election cheating ENDS, and their rigged wins evaporate. They are betting on keeping fraud alive for re-election. RINOs like Thune are exposed daily by patriots flooding his lines (202-224-2321) demanding a vote. He's stalling because he can't muster even 51 votes to nuke the filibuster—proving the Senate's infested with fraud enablers. Concerned citizens are showing up at his office, emailing nonstop, but Thune hides. Most likely Thune's REFUSAL dooms Republicans in 2026 midterms, handing Dems control for Trump's THIRD impeachment sham!

• @ElectionWiz 

• ELON MUSK just torched 8 Republican senators for BLOCKING the SAVE Act – the critical voter integrity bill requiring proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections! "Unfortunately, there are 8 Republican senators implacably opposed to passing the voting integrity law... They will be responsible for the death of democracy if they don’t change their position. I cannot think of a worse legacy." This is existential. Public pressure can flip them—end the filibuster holdup and PASS THE SAVE ACT NOW!

• @TonySeruga

• Canada, our closest ally, just walked straight into the trap. This so-called “strategic partnership” announced after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Beijing visit is a perfect case study in how the CCP manufactures dependence and then calls it cooperation. Just so you know, China has previously punished Canada with crushing tariffs. All of a sudden, China magnanimously offers “relief,” on a temporary, conditional basis, in exchange for access, concessions, and silence. Ottawa smiles for the cameras and calls it pragmatism. The CCP now offers temporary tariff relief the way a loan shark offers a payment extension… grateful smiles now, broken fingers later. That is not trade. That is extortion.
• Understanding the Evil World Economic Forum in One Image. The World Economic Forum (WEF) represents one of the most sophisticated and dangerous forms of modern influence — not through overt control, but through elite consensus engineering. It does not operate as a democratic organization with accountability or electoral legitimacy. Instead, it functions as a hub of unelected power, where political, corporate, and bureaucratic elites meet behind closed doors to align on shared agendas that often undermine national sovereignty and citizen autonomy, especially in nations like the United States. (pic)

• @Shilohmarx

• Governor Abigail Spanberger won Virginia by 527,271 votes in 2025. Virginia reported 1,074,543 duplicate voter registrations between 2022––2024.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 -.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.0 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%. 
• Gold 4,947.3 USD/t oz. +.7%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.81 +.24%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.27 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 101.8 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.24% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.67% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.18%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Diminished US/Greenland Angst, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.4 -1.1%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.21 -5.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.2 -2.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 125.1 -.7%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.2 +.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.2 +7.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.4 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.9 -3.0 points 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(57 of 500 reporting) +17.1% -1.0 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.30 +.13:  Growth Rate +16.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.18% -12.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 491.47 -.23: Growth Rate +19.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 31.0 +.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +13.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 63.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.8 +.4% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.9% -1.4 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.4% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.87 unch.

• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 84.1% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 71.9%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +440 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -1.4% 2) Homebuilding -.9% 3) Energy -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CGON, SONY, TECK, HBAN, CLS, AXGN, RSI, BIOA, KTOS, LEGN, UCTT, GE, FIGR, MKC, OFG, ABT, ORI and INSP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FIVN 2) HSBC 3) CSX 4) OGN 5) FXI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MKC 2) GE 3) ABT 4) LYFT 5) MBLY

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLC 3) FXU 4) MAGS 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.9% 2) Alt Energy +3.7% 3) Telecom +2.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RGC, CRML, IMSR, USAR, RDW, SCZM, EGBN, CRVS, HYMC, ORN, UAMY, CORT, JANX, NVTS, RCAT, PSNL, TEO, ASTS, SA, LMND, SSRM, METC, NGD, CDE, NGD, GRAL, GLSI, MUX, BEAM, DNLI, DSGN, PPTA, NTLA, AVBP, VITL, DNA, OUST, LENZ, EXK, NN, CRSP, GLSI, DNTH, CGEM, UUUU, RUN, HL, ANET, DBVT, ADTN, MP, AG, FCEL, SKE, ACHC, GLDD, PAAS, AEHR, NG, UMAC, LOB, DDOG, ROCK, SDGR, AUGO, BRZE, KRMN, STNE, AMPX, RGNX, PCVX, FIG, FIVN, ALKT, LPTH, GME, NTRS, VELO, WIX, SPIR, PTRN, AEVA, SBSW, MAZE, META, DCOM, ANGI, ARM, BABA, SMR, TLK, KMI, LASR, NPB, UEC, KGC, EOSE, VICR, ADSK, PNTG, BILI, FVRR, MT, AVO, PENN, CACI, AD and AAUC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NWL 2) ARBE 3) FNKO 4) AS 5) BARK 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ANET 2) KRMN 3) CORT 4) GLSI 5) VG

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) KRE 3) FBT 4) XLF 5) ARKK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume