Thursday, January 29, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • $AAPL CEO: Memory inflation expected to impact margins in Q2: “Memory had a minimal impact on the Q1, so the December quarter gross margin. We do expect it to be a bit more of an impact to the Q2 gross margin...we do continue to see market pricing for memory increasing significantly."
  • $AAPL CEO: "Greater China was up 38% YoY. It was driven by iPhone, where we set an all-time revenue record. It was the best iPhone quarter in history in Greater China. It was driven by customer enthusiasm for the iPhone 17 lineup. During the quarter, traffic in our stores in China grew by strong double-digit year-over-year. It was a terrific quarter."
  • Apple CFO: "During the Dec quarter, our record business performance & strong margins led to EPS growth of 19%, setting a new all-time EPS record. These exceptionally strong results generated nearly $54B in OCFs, allowing us to return almost $32B to shareholders" $AAPL: +2% AH.
  • @MarioNawful
  • @realLizUSA
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @ScottPresler
  • @cosminDZS
  • @Govt_Acct_Inst
  • @Badhombre
  • @ElonMusk
  • @BarnettforAZ
  • @KylieJaneKremer
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%. 
  • Gold 5,222.8 USD/t oz. -2.5%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.04 -.53%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.2%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.5 +.6%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.27% +4.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.61% -2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.0 +1.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.71%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.36%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.51%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Tech Earnings Outlook Jitters, Escalating US/Iran Tensions, Crypto Plunge, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.4 +.8%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .17 -2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.16 +2.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 +.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 126.6 +.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.8 -.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.5 +12.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.6 +10.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.9 +1.0 point 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(141 of 500 reporting) +17.5% -2.9 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 314.28 +.21:  Growth Rate +16.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.0 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.14% +4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +20.9% -19.3 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 492.90 +.17: Growth Rate +20.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.9 -.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 67.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.9 +.8% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +4.2% -1.2 percentage points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.23% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.31 +13.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 70.5% (-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 47.0%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -165 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +240 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -1.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Software -5.9% 2) Gold & Silver -3.6% 3) Gambling -3.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • EXP, ALM, BC, KLAR, AG, CNMD, CRS, SKE, KGC, KEX, ADSK, APPF, SBSW, ALM, KGC, DXYZ, IP, STM, TSCO, AG, SCZM, IOT, GFI, CRWD, COIN, ETD, AGI, QTWO, CDNS, HLI, EQX, ALKT, CRM, WHR, IAG, AI, BL, HMY, ATGE, INTU, SNOW, WDAY, WK, BRZE, MP, SATS, AU, SAIL, UEC, RBRK, TYL, SAIL, MDB, UUUU, DRD, FIGR, ORLA, FSLR, USAR, MSTR, PEGA, TEAM, MSFT, HUBS, NOW, LEU, KVYO, AAOI, HYMC, CALX, LVS, CLS, LC, URI, SAP, VELO, CRML and JOBY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) TRIP 2) BRZE 3) XRX 4) GTM 5) KOS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) JOBY 2) VRNS 3) CLS 4) MSFT 5) URI
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) FTEC 3) XLK 4) FDIS 5) XLP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Energy +2.7% 2) Computer Services +2.0% 3) Airlines +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • LUV, MOD, LBRT, TAL, MAN, VIAV, RCL, INOD, DLX, BKD, META, AMPX, NCLH, ALGM, PLXS, CCL, EVMN, CUK, TT, HXL, UCTT, VIRT, PUMP, ERO, LMT, SUPX, AOS, FTK, CHRW, HAFC, VFC, GRRR, SCCO, BKV, RCI, CP, VSEC, INMD, JMIA, BFH, DNTH, BIPC, SEI, VIK, OFG, RGNX, XPRO, NGL, OFG, NUS, HON, LAZ, CNXC, NE, APP, LYFT, LAND, AMP, IDR, HIMS, EPR, LYFT, CEPT, LQDA, SMG, MA, PH, APA, HCC, PR, CTRA, VLO, SNDK, PHM, VLO, ALGT, TIPT, SIGI, CVE, TALO, LFUS, OVV, TECK, AMTM, T, CNX, COP, APH, AVT, CVNA and EQNR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) NNDM 2) KOS 3) SGMO 4) VIAV 5) TRIP 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LUV 2) LBRT 3) VIAV 4) META  5) TAL
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) COPX 3) GDX 4) KRE 5) XLE
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (APD)/3.04
  • (AXP)/3.54
  • (AON)/4.75
  • (ARCB)/.42
  • (ALV)/2.91
  • (CHTR)/9.85
  • (CVX)/1.42
  • (CHD)/.84
  • (CL)/.91
  • (XOM)/1.70
  • (BEN)/.55
  • (GNTX)/.43
  • (REGN)/10.69 
  • (SOFI)/.12
  • (VZ)/1.05
  • (WT)/.23 
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

  • PPI Final Demand MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Nov.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. for Nov. 

9:45 am EST

  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Jan. is estimated at 43.5 versus 43.5 in Dec. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, US government funding deadline, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (CHD) analyst day, (DOX) annual meeting and the (ENR) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +43.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.3 -3.3
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 45.9% of Issues Advancing, 51.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .88 -22.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$120.2M
  • 229 New 52-Week Highs, 72 New Lows
  • 67.3% (+.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 63.0 -1.2
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 32.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 74.0% -3.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% unch.
  • US strikes Iran by June 30th 68.0% +4.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 98.9 -.7%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 465.75 +12.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 266.0 -.2%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 153.2 -1.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 58.0 (GREED) -6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 12.9 -2.6%
  • Vix 17.6 +7.8%
  • Total Put/Call .87 +17.6%